Sorting out the Turkey/Syria mess. A picture is worth a thousand words. From the Daily Mail -
The initial Turkish assault came in the sparely populated region between Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain. To secure the flanks, Turkish forces assaulted Tal Abyad, Suluk and Ras al-Adin. Supporting attack by Turkish and Turkish backed rebels was to take place against Manbij and Kobane in the western part of the zone.
Enter the Syrian and Russian Armies, suddenly the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Syria rushing forces to Manbij in the west and Hassakeh/Tal Tamer in the east. This forced Russia to sprint ahead and get between Turkish and Syrian forces in the vicinity of Manbij. This along with Kurdish counter attack to retake Ras al-Ain have put Turkey in a squeeze. Stiff resistance and quick response by Syria/Russia may make Turkey back off its buffer / security zone to avoid serious escalation of fighting. Is Turkey ready to cross swords with Russian troops to get at its desired territorial gains?
With some condemning Trump pulling out our relatively small forces from this area, Turkey's unilateral decision to attack across the border would have brought US forces under attack. In this current scenario/situation Russia/Syria face the brunt with Kurds apparently teaming up with them. I don't expect thing to go well for Turkey under such conditions.
Turkey/Syria
There is a great deal of conflicting discussion on what exactly is happening in NE Syria. Heavy fighting is reported across the sector. One area of attack is towards the Kurdish border city of Kobane in the western sector.Turkey had 'promised' not to invade Kobane. Another maneuver appears to be designed to create a Kurdish isolated pocket around Tal Abyad and Suluk.
US officials have said though that Turkey has penetrated more than the stated 30KM in places and farther to the west. This accounts for the reports that Turkish forces have engaged Syrian units near the town of Raqqa - nearly 60 km from the Turkish border.
I suspect much has to do with the sudden imposition of Syrian/Russian forces and the stiff resistance put up by the Kurds.
Turkey tried playing a game of chicken with a US position and nearly found itself on the receiving end of serious firepower. The VP and SECSTATE are enroute to meet in Turkey but Erdogan has stated he will only meet with Trump. US has started placing embargos on key materials and other EU countries the same. Probably the biggest event to look for would be the removal of the 50 or so nukes from Incirlik AFB . Not sure Turkey's response, as they may attempt to keep them as a 'hostage'. That could provoke kinetic retaliation by NATO. 3 -C17 jets currently enroute have raised speculation on the removal.
N Korea
Kim rides a white horse on Mt Paedku - a reportedly 'sacred' site. Some are linking the photo-op to a pending policy decision by Kim. Part of the accompanying press release states "Having witnessed the great moments of his thinking atop Mount Paedku, all the officials accompanying him were convinced with overwhelming emotions and joy that there will be a great operation to strike the world with wonder again and make a step forward in the Korean revolution" The statement is a little vague, but some analysts suspect this may be nuclear related. Since the Vietnam fiasco, Kim appears to have been reigned in by the hard liners in his military govt. Talks with the US have not been going well.
There was an earlier threat against Guam again a couple weeks ago. Another option would be another underground nuke test. Strongly suspect that it will be a deliberate stepping over the lines of the agreement with Trump. With current world turmoil he may see Trump as weakened and thinks he can get away with something like a serious ICBM or nuke test. Keep monitoring.
Hong Kong
Independence protestors have tweaked the ire of China, which threatened to crush protests and any attempt at independence. China has to walk carefully. HK is an economic powerhouse for the rest of the nation and a heavy handed assault would boomerang back into their faces. China's recent bullying of the NBA and other US companies to back down on the free HK movement indicates their concerns.
Saudi Arabia / Iran
More US forces deploying to SA and Kuwait area, most associated with missile defense. Things getting drown out by the Turkish invasion of Syria, but it seems that SA is getting its defenses beefed up for a future conflict. Iran has also moved Anti aircraft missile systems to portions of the gulf facing SA. I don't expect Iran to move much in this area. It currently has its hands full responding to the Turkish incursion and what that does to its plans and allies.