Posted on 05/24/2018 8:30:34 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
“Made in the U.S.A.” has been in decline for decades, but in the last few years it has shown signs of an incipient comeback. Even as the number of manufacturing jobs has decreased, manufacturing output—the value of goods made here—has increased substantially. We still make $5.4 trillion worth of stuff annually here, and 12.4 million Americans still work in the manufacturing sector. But Trump administration tariffs, speculation about a trade war, and the continued march toward automation make the future of American manufacturing less certain.
For this special report, we surveyed 26 of the largest manufacturers in the country—and a few smaller ones, because their perspective is important—for their thoughts, concerns, and predictions. Their answers to 11 big questions tell us a lot about what lies ahead.
No. 1: What Is the Biggest Advantage to Manufacturing in the United States?
The Consensus: Being close to customers lets companies get products out quickly without blowing their margins. Plus it means getting feedback directly from the people who buy those items (and maybe even hiring a few), which makes the products better....
(Excerpt) Read more at popularmechanics.com ...
Within 20 years, we will probably be at the end state of U.S. Mfg.: goods consumed within the US. will be manufactured in the U.S. by robots with little/no human wage component hurting the bottom line. We may still make some goods for export but most foreign goods will be made in the country where the goods are consumed or in some regional factory. Human wages have always driven mfg. to re-locate in a chase thru countries with poverty level wages. The fight has always been to teach unskilled people to make acceptable goods at an acceptable wage.
Good lord,I can’t believe that Zippo is still around-——lots of memories with Zippos.
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The issue with finding good people involves the ability to learn and the work ethic, both of which are hard to put into a job request. the concept of working in a small company (like Airstream) as a career seems foreign to many. I know I rejected a small office when I worked in one for a summer. After a full career of engineering and teaching I have to admit that the small career work would also have been fulfilling. but as a young kid I did not know this and thought I wanted more glamour and visibility, and maybe a larger community.
Just an observation, I don’t have a solution, but I do see getting good workers as a problem with manufacturing jobs making a comeback.
55 years ago when I went to high School, even dropouts had better skills than the typical HS graduate today. They could read, write, good enough in math to balance a checkbook and fill out a job application. They also had hands on experience and knew how to perform a function which translated into a trade.
The doctrine of strict product liability has also had a lot to do with it.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS
USA Manufacturing Output set an all time record high in 2007.
It then crashed by 17% in 2008-2009, during the Great Recession.
In 2017, USA output was just a fraction below the 2007 record.
In January 2018, USA manufacturing employment was 12.6 million.
That’s about 1.1 million less workers than January 2008.
There has been a productivity increase of about 1% per year for the last ten years.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES3000000001
Speed to market, rapid hands on prototyping or sampling, lower MOQ and “decomplexified” communications due to language barriers and time zones mean a tighter, more resilient supply chain that can react to market changes in a far healthier manner than being offshore dependent. No paying air freight for infill production.
I’m not sure if robots could build fibreglass boats better than humans. Hand laid is the best way of fibreglass boatbuilding.
Globalism will be defeated just like Communism and Fascism were defeated in the 20th century.
Historically inaccurate statement but regardless it is exactly the reason why the USA needs a 20% import tariff now!
One thing not mentioned is concerning the imported manufactured goods.
If a foreign supplier is heavily subsidized by their national government, which also heavily restricts US made products from being sold in that country, then I believe they have no right to sell their goods here.
For the US, getting rid of some of the highest corporate taxes was step one. When foreigner’s goods are not taxed like ours it only encourages our manufacturers to set up shop overseas. But foreign governments can’t block our stuff while massively pushing their products on us. This is the level playing filed Trump is on about.
Increased use of robots and computers as well as 3D manufacturing becoming common is going to result in fewer jobs in this sector over time. The good news is there is no reason why mostly or completely automated factories can’t be built right here in the US so at least we won’t be dependent on imports.
Seems the low cost of energy in the U.S. is taken for granted.
Then get into the business of making the robots!
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