I stand with with Israeli Intel sources:
How reliable are ISIS’s claims of responsibility? In ITIC assessment, most of the attacks
for which ISIS claims responsibility were in fact carried out by its operatives (planned
attacks), or by terrorists who were inspired by the organization (inspired attacks).
However, those are exceptional cases. For example, through its Amaq news agency, ISIS
claimed responsibility for the combined shooting and stabbing attack carried out near the
Nablus Gate in the Old City of Jerusalem (June 16, 2017). According to the announcement, the
attack was carried out by the “lions of the caliphate in the Palestine Province [of ISIS].” In ITIC
assessment, the announcement was false, and reflected ISIS’s desire to boast of a
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success in a symbolic location such as “Palestine,” given the severe pressure exerted on
the organization in Syria and Iraq.
In conclusion, an examination of the claims of responsibility revealed a connection
between the pattern of announcement and the nature and location of the attack. Shortform
announcements seem to indicate an ISIS-inspired attack, usually carried out in a
Western country, primarily by Muslims or people who have converted to Islam, been
radicalized, and identify with ISIS’s ideology. Long-form announcements, on the other
hand, seem to indicate a previously-planned ISIS attack. They are usually carried out in
Syria, Iraq and Arab-Muslim countries, where ISIS has high operational capabilities.4 Videos
are included in claims of responsibility for both ISIS-inspired attacks and planned
attacks. The difference between them is that in ISIS-inspired attacks the inclusion of a video
is improvised and inserted on the initiative of the terrorists who carry them out, and then
disseminated by ISIS’s propaganda machine. In planned attacks, publishing videos is part of
preparations for the attack and attention is given to the aspect of propaganda. ISIS uses
many languages in its announcements, depending on the target audience (Arabic and
English are popular languages for the videos).
www.terrorism-info.org.il/app/uploads/2017/08/E_159_17.pdf
Pattern recognition may not be your strong suit.