Kodak could have been at the forefront of Digital cameras as they’d created the first one for NASA. Instead they chose to stick to film. Some companies innovate and some companies die.
My daughter lives in a city that used to produce about 90% of the buggy whips used in the United States.
There are a lot of empty buildings in the downtown area because they NEVER recovered.
I am so screwed.
I program automated machines. Unless AI can do that, I’ll still have a job.
Technology will change things, but things don’t always happen as predicted.
For example, I remember hearing years ago how internet banks would put brick and mortar banks out of business. While online banking is a major activity, we saw existing financial institutions adapt to online banking, rather than seeing significant numbers of internet only banks being created.
But there’s no question that ongoing technological change will affect us and established businesses. What seems clear is that businesses will adapt or die out. And that was a major factor in capitalism even before the computer and internet era.
There are a number of companies that have failed to make the digital transformation.
Jeppesen, a company all pilots are familiar with, had two CEOs in a row since 1993 through 2016 that failed to make the digital transformation.
Jeppesen owned 97% of the aviation paper charting market. In fact, they OWN the worldwide navigation database those paper charts are derived.
They spent over $1 billion from 1993 to present and have yet to make a significant contribution to the digital age. The entire Electronic Flight Bag (EFB) market was theirs to define and own, yet, they failed. Mismanagement of hiring the MBA/PMP types with zero aviation or engineering experience, allowing the outright jealous hatred of pilots by their employees, the view that they were too big to fail, etc., all contributed to their demise. Boeing owns them and has been picking apart the bones. Soon there won’t be a Jeppesen left.
No one is manufacturing xylits, and no one can lonicate posiwats.
In the futeure many people will.
The worst mistake in this pretty useful article is on solar power.
We have already reached it’s min cost becuase a source that only works 8-10 hours a day has to be augmented with 24 hr sources. The math doesn’t allow the delivered price to go lower.
I can remember when the pitch to buy silver was that it was used in photography and would ALWAYS face an increasing demand.
At one time Sears Roebuck was immensely successful — largely doing what Amazon does, mail order - with free returns if not satisfied- — it was the World’s Largest Store with its good customer satisfaction policy ( similar to Costco today). . (Sears owned Chicago radio station WLS with that call sign selected for “world’s largest store”). Now it has a mostly non- discript product lines - just sold off craftsman-— with lots of imported goods and high prices. That dog don’t hunt, sorry Sears.
Sorry, I read the article. It is total La La Land fantasy. Yes some things will change. But their vision in only 48 months from now? Not a chance in Hell. Sorry.
I think that as the advances follow. Possibilities for more workers in newer sci-fi industries are more possible.
With enough technology and power-productivity, space travel opens up as a new place to work. Deep sea welding might be robotized, but engineers who can repair and service those machines will be needed.
Ships will have robotic captains, but you will still need ports with remote pilots. Robot airplanes might be the next robot car, but you will still need someone to handle the unloading and reloading of parcels and passengers.
Service industry will be important, but it will also be a form of entertainment, because people will be so used to an instant gratification society that they will insist on being entertained by “everything.” If it is not entertaining it will be handled by a touch screen.
Graphics design might pick up more demand, since beauty is difficult to be original and beautiful and programmable at the same time.
I bought a Kodak digital camera several years ago. It was such a POS that we took it back and traded for a Olympus which has worked flawlessly despite much off road abuse.
The two biggest oil and gas operators in OKC did not even register on the meter 35 years ago. The two biggest operators 35 years ago don’t exist now.
Change is constant and often unkind.