Ref's Electoral Projection 11/02/16: Trump 279, Clinton 259 (Analyzing 84 polls from last two week)

Political Ref ^ | 11/02/16

[TheRef]

Ref's Electoral Projection as of 11/2/16 - Analyzing 84 polls in 10 states from the last two weeks

 

I assume Trump will win Maine-2 and all five Nebraska electoral votes

Polls Only - Clinton 293, Trump 245

Sample Bias - Clinton 272, Trump 266

Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias - Clinton 272, Trump 266

REF'S PROJECTION: Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias + Late breaking voters (FBI + incumbency rule) - Clinton 259, Trump 279

FBI refers to the reopening of the investigation and the impact of it. Incumbency rule - normally if incumbents are not above 50%, they are in trouble. I am using 47% as a guide. Where she is below that, she is in danger.

*Sample Bias and Shy Trump Voter Bias Explained  

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	Florida	Clinton 44.9, Trump 45.4
	*Alliance/ESA	10/27-10/31	530LV	Clinton 47, Trump 46	Polls Only - Trump +0.5 Sample bias - Trump +1.7 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +2.3 Late breaking - Trump +2.5
	SurveyMonkey	10/24-10/31	2809LV	Clinton 46, Trump 45
	Google Consumer Surveys	10/25-10/31	1286LV	Clinton 37, Trump 44
	Remington Research	10/30	990LV	Clinton 44, Trump 48
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	408LV	Clinton 48, Trump 47
	*Emerson College	10/26-10/27	500LV	Clinton 46, Trump 45
	*NYT/Sienna College	10/25-10/27	820LV	Clinton 42, Trump 46
	*NBC/Marist College	10/25-10/26	780LV	Clinton 45, Trump 44
	Gravis	10/25-10/26	1301RV	Clinton 48, Trump 47
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/21-10/27	800LV	Clinton 49, Trump 45
	*PPP	10/25-10/26	740LV	Clinton 48, Trump 44
	Dixie Strategies	10/25-10/26	700LV	Clinton 42, Trump 46
	*Bloomberg	10/21-10/24	810LV	Clinton 43, Trump 45
	Florida Atlantic Univ	10/21-10/23	500LV	Clinton 46, Trump 43
	CBS/YouGov	10/21-10/22	1040LV	Clinton 43, Trump 46
	Ohio	Clinton 44.0, Trump 46.1
	SurveyMonkey	10/20-10/28	1980LV	Clinton 40, Trump 45	Polls Only - Trump +2.1 Sample bias - Trump +2.9 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +3.4 Late breaking - Trump +3.5
	Google Consumer Surveys	10/25-10/31	980LV	Clinton 40, Trump 45
	Remington Research	10/30	1187LV	Clinton 43, Trump 48
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	340LV	Clinton 50, Trump 47
	*Emerson College	10/26-10/27	800LV	Clinton 45, Trump 45
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/21-10/27	508LV	Clinton 45, Trump 45
	Trafalger Group	10/24-10/26	1150LV	Clinton 44, Trump 49
	*Suffolk	10/17-10/19	500LV	Clinton 45, Trump 45
	North Carolina	Clinton 45.5, Trump 44.9
	WRAL/Survey USA	10/28-10/31	660LV	Clinton 44, Trump 51	Polls Only - Clinton +0.6 Sample bias - Trump +0.5 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +1.3 Late breaking - Trump +1.6
	*Alliance/ESA	10/27-10/31	530LV	Clinton 46, Trump 46
	SurveyMonkey	10/25-10/31	1570LV	Clinton 47, Trump 44
	Google Consumer Surveys	10/25-10/31	730LV	Clinton 34, Trump 41
	Remington Research	10/30	1180LV	Clinton 45, Trump 47
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	350LV	Clinton 48, Trump 48
	*Emerson College	10/26-10/27	650LV	Clinton 48, Trump 45
	*Elon Univ	10/23-10/27	710LV	Clinton 42, Trump 41
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/14-10/27	640LV	Clinton 48, Trump 44
	*Marist College	10/25-10/26	780LV	Clinton 47, Trump 41
	Gravis	10/25-10/26	1270RV	Clinton 49, Trump 47
	*Quinnipiac	10/20-10/26	700LV	Clinton 47, Trump 43
	*Monmouth	10/20-10/23	400LV	Clinton 47, Trump 46
	Wisconsin	Clinton 47.7, Trump 43.3
	SurveyMonkey	10/25-10/31	1200LV	Clinton 44, Trump 42	Polls Only - Clinton +4.4 Sample bias - Clinton +3.5 Shy Voter Bias - Clinton +2.1 Late breaking - Clinton +1.0
	Remington Research	10/30	1170LV	Clinton 46, Trump 42
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	370LV	Clinton 50,.Trump 46
	*Emerson College	10/27-10/28	400LV	Clinton 48, Trump 42
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/14-10/27	520LV	Clinton 47, Trump 42
	UPI/CVoter	10/16-10/23	360LV	Clinton 51, Trump 46
	*Let America Work	10/18-10/20	600LV	Clinton 48, Trump 43
	Iowa	Clinton 43.0, Trump 44.4
	SurveyMonkey	10/25-10/31	980LV	Clinton 40, Trump 45	Polls Only - Trump +1.4 Sample bias - Trump +2.6 Shy Voter bias - Trump +2.9 Late breaking - Trump +3.1
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	330LV	Clinton 48, Trump 48
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/7-10/27	360LV	Clinton 44, Trump 42
	*Quinnipiac	10/20-10/26	790LV	Clinton 44, Trump 44
	*Des Moines Register	10/3-10/6	642LV	Clinton 39, Trump 43
	Nevada	Clinton 44.0, Trump 43.4
	*Alliance/ESA	10/27-10/31	530LV	Clinton 44, Trump 40	Polls Only - Clinton +0.6 Sample bias - Trump +0.5 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +0.9 Late breaking - Trump +1.1
	Survey Monkey	10/25-10/31	1010LV	Clinton 43, Trump 42
	Remington Research	10/30	790LV	Clinton 44, Trump 48
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	310LV	Clinton 48, Trump 46
	*Emerson College	10/26-10/27	550LV	Clinton 44, Trump 42
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/7-10/27	290LV	Clinton 40, Trump 40
	Gravis	10/25	880RV	Clinton 46, Trump 46
	*Marist	10/20-10/24	710LV	Clinton 43, Trump 43
	Arizona	Clinton 43.6, Trump 45.4
	SurveyMonkey	10/25-10/31	1460LV	Clinton 43, Trump 44	Polls Only - Trump +1.3 Adjusted - Trump +2.6 Shy Voter bias - Trump +2.8 Late breaking - Trump +3.3
	*Data Orbital	10/29-10/30	550LV	Clinton 41, Trump 45
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	370LV	Clinton 43, Trump 51
	*CBS/YouGov	10/26-10/28	990LV	Clinton 42, Trump 44
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/14-10/27	550LV	Clinton 43, Trump 42
	Saguaro Strategoes	10/22-10/24	2390LV	Clinton 48, Trump 46
	*Monmouth	10/21-10/24	400LV	Clinton 45, Trump 46
	Colorado	Clinton 44.0, Trump 41.3
	SurveyMonkey	10/25-10/31	1530LV	Clinton 43, Trump 39	Polls Only - Clinton +2.7 Sample bias - Clinton +1.9 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.8 Late breaking - Trump +0.5
	Remington Research	10/30/	950LV	Clinton 45, Trump 44
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/14-10/27	440LV	Clinton 46, Trump 43
	*CBS/YouGov	10/26-10/28	1000LV	Clinton 42, Trump 39
	Pennsylvania	Clinton 46.0, Trump 42.5
	*The Franklin and Marshall poll showing an eleven point lead is excluded. It was taken from a voter list, so new voters are not included, has a 5.1 margin of error, and was completed almost entirely before James Comey's announcement on Friday. This is definitely not an eleven point race and this poll only serves to throw off the average.				Polls Only - Clinton +3.5 Sample bias - Clinton +2.3 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +1.3 Late breaking - Clinton +0.2
	*Alliance/ESA	10/27-10/31	530LV	Clinton 43, Trump 44
	SurveyMonkey	10/25-10/31	2260LV	Clinton 49, Trump 41
	Google Consumer Surveys	10/25-10/31	1030LV	Clinton 37, Trump 39
	Remington Research	10/30	1250LV	Clinton 45, Trump 43
	Gravis	10/25-10/30	3220RV	Clinton 47, Trump 44
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	370LV	Clinton 50, Trump 46
	*CBS/YouGov	10/26-10/28	1090LV	Clinton 48, Trump 40
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/21-10/27	450.LV	Clinton 48, Trump 46
	*Emerson	10/25-10/26	550LV	Clinton 48, Trump 43
	*Muhlenberg College	10/20-10/26	420LV	Clinton 45, Trump 39
	New Hampshire	Clinton 45.6, Trump 42.3
	*Alliance/ESA	10/27-10/31	530LV	Clinton 44, Trump 40	Polls Only - Clinton +3.3 Sample bias - Clinton +1.6 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.3 Late breaking - Trump +0.4
	*Univ. of New Hampshire	10/26-10/30	620LV	Clinton 46, Trump 39
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	310LV	Clinton 50, Trump 47
	Inside Sources	10/26-10/28	410LV	Clinton 43, Trump 45
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/7-10/27	160LV	Clinton 44, Trump 40
	*Emerson	10/23-10/25	600LV	Clinton 46, Trump 43
	*Monmouth	10/22-10/25	400LV	Clinton 46, Trump 42

[Maine Mariner]

I am not sure I agree with MN going red.

[CatOwner]

It is disconcerting that the Electoral votes are this close.

[pepsionice]

Only state I disagree with is Michigan. I think Trump can now win the state.

[GilGil]

This is a good start and about 100 ev's short for Trump. He should land in the 370-450 ev's.

[CatOwner]

I am not sure I agree with MN going red

I agree MN should be blue, but the 279 total doesn't include MN.

[ExTexasRedhead]

Non-stop dirt coming out on Hitlery and her cohorts. None of these projections reflect the damage being done every hour; case closed.

[Paladin2]

Minn. ?

How does that happen before Wisc. and Mich.?

[Alberta's Child]

Pennsylvania, Virginia, Maine and New Mexico will all go red before Minnesota does.

[tcrlaf]

RCP and 538 both show Florida as “Leaning Democrat”, as well as Nevada, Iowa, and North Carolina

[Alberta's Child]

Michigan and Wisconsin, too.

I'm not sure Minnesota has ever been on the winning side of a close presidential election in decades.

[tflabo]

Dear Lord we ask for 300 EV’s for President Trump.

[TheRef]

That was an error on the map. It’s corrected now.

[TheRef]

I am going to look at that again tonight. new poll looks good.

[HamiltonJay]

PA and WI and MI will go red.

[combat_boots]

For the life of me, I don’t know why, but I think Trump takes MI and/or PA.

[TheRef]

It could happen. I’m using 47 as a substitute for the 50% incumbency rule. That may be wrong. It may be higher. Hard to say.

[Ingtar]

538, for one, moved Florida to Trump quietly yesterday.

[teeman8r]

i agree.

hillary under 200 electoral votes

even oregon is in play.

t

[tcrlaf]

“538, for one, moved Florida to Trump quietly yesterday.”

Uhhh...
No...

Right now it shows Florida as “Leaning Democrat”.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo