Ref's Electoral Projection 11/02/16: Trump 279, Clinton 259 (Analyzing 84 polls from last two week)

Political Ref ^ | 11/02/16

[TheRef]

Ref's Electoral Projection as of 11/2/16 - Analyzing 84 polls in 10 states from the last two weeks

 

I assume Trump will win Maine-2 and all five Nebraska electoral votes

Polls Only - Clinton 293, Trump 245

Sample Bias - Clinton 272, Trump 266

Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias - Clinton 272, Trump 266

REF'S PROJECTION: Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias + Late breaking voters (FBI + incumbency rule) - Clinton 259, Trump 279

FBI refers to the reopening of the investigation and the impact of it. Incumbency rule - normally if incumbents are not above 50%, they are in trouble. I am using 47% as a guide. Where she is below that, she is in danger.

*Sample Bias and Shy Trump Voter Bias Explained  

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	Florida	Clinton 44.9, Trump 45.4
	*Alliance/ESA	10/27-10/31	530LV	Clinton 47, Trump 46	Polls Only - Trump +0.5 Sample bias - Trump +1.7 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +2.3 Late breaking - Trump +2.5
	SurveyMonkey	10/24-10/31	2809LV	Clinton 46, Trump 45
	Google Consumer Surveys	10/25-10/31	1286LV	Clinton 37, Trump 44
	Remington Research	10/30	990LV	Clinton 44, Trump 48
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	408LV	Clinton 48, Trump 47
	*Emerson College	10/26-10/27	500LV	Clinton 46, Trump 45
	*NYT/Sienna College	10/25-10/27	820LV	Clinton 42, Trump 46
	*NBC/Marist College	10/25-10/26	780LV	Clinton 45, Trump 44
	Gravis	10/25-10/26	1301RV	Clinton 48, Trump 47
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/21-10/27	800LV	Clinton 49, Trump 45
	*PPP	10/25-10/26	740LV	Clinton 48, Trump 44
	Dixie Strategies	10/25-10/26	700LV	Clinton 42, Trump 46
	*Bloomberg	10/21-10/24	810LV	Clinton 43, Trump 45
	Florida Atlantic Univ	10/21-10/23	500LV	Clinton 46, Trump 43
	CBS/YouGov	10/21-10/22	1040LV	Clinton 43, Trump 46
	Ohio	Clinton 44.0, Trump 46.1
	SurveyMonkey	10/20-10/28	1980LV	Clinton 40, Trump 45	Polls Only - Trump +2.1 Sample bias - Trump +2.9 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +3.4 Late breaking - Trump +3.5
	Google Consumer Surveys	10/25-10/31	980LV	Clinton 40, Trump 45
	Remington Research	10/30	1187LV	Clinton 43, Trump 48
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	340LV	Clinton 50, Trump 47
	*Emerson College	10/26-10/27	800LV	Clinton 45, Trump 45
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/21-10/27	508LV	Clinton 45, Trump 45
	Trafalger Group	10/24-10/26	1150LV	Clinton 44, Trump 49
	*Suffolk	10/17-10/19	500LV	Clinton 45, Trump 45
	North Carolina	Clinton 45.5, Trump 44.9
	WRAL/Survey USA	10/28-10/31	660LV	Clinton 44, Trump 51	Polls Only - Clinton +0.6 Sample bias - Trump +0.5 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +1.3 Late breaking - Trump +1.6
	*Alliance/ESA	10/27-10/31	530LV	Clinton 46, Trump 46
	SurveyMonkey	10/25-10/31	1570LV	Clinton 47, Trump 44
	Google Consumer Surveys	10/25-10/31	730LV	Clinton 34, Trump 41
	Remington Research	10/30	1180LV	Clinton 45, Trump 47
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	350LV	Clinton 48, Trump 48
	*Emerson College	10/26-10/27	650LV	Clinton 48, Trump 45
	*Elon Univ	10/23-10/27	710LV	Clinton 42, Trump 41
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/14-10/27	640LV	Clinton 48, Trump 44
	*Marist College	10/25-10/26	780LV	Clinton 47, Trump 41
	Gravis	10/25-10/26	1270RV	Clinton 49, Trump 47
	*Quinnipiac	10/20-10/26	700LV	Clinton 47, Trump 43
	*Monmouth	10/20-10/23	400LV	Clinton 47, Trump 46
	Wisconsin	Clinton 47.7, Trump 43.3
	SurveyMonkey	10/25-10/31	1200LV	Clinton 44, Trump 42	Polls Only - Clinton +4.4 Sample bias - Clinton +3.5 Shy Voter Bias - Clinton +2.1 Late breaking - Clinton +1.0
	Remington Research	10/30	1170LV	Clinton 46, Trump 42
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	370LV	Clinton 50,.Trump 46
	*Emerson College	10/27-10/28	400LV	Clinton 48, Trump 42
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/14-10/27	520LV	Clinton 47, Trump 42
	UPI/CVoter	10/16-10/23	360LV	Clinton 51, Trump 46
	*Let America Work	10/18-10/20	600LV	Clinton 48, Trump 43
	Iowa	Clinton 43.0, Trump 44.4
	SurveyMonkey	10/25-10/31	980LV	Clinton 40, Trump 45	Polls Only - Trump +1.4 Sample bias - Trump +2.6 Shy Voter bias - Trump +2.9 Late breaking - Trump +3.1
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	330LV	Clinton 48, Trump 48
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/7-10/27	360LV	Clinton 44, Trump 42
	*Quinnipiac	10/20-10/26	790LV	Clinton 44, Trump 44
	*Des Moines Register	10/3-10/6	642LV	Clinton 39, Trump 43
	Nevada	Clinton 44.0, Trump 43.4
	*Alliance/ESA	10/27-10/31	530LV	Clinton 44, Trump 40	Polls Only - Clinton +0.6 Sample bias - Trump +0.5 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +0.9 Late breaking - Trump +1.1
	Survey Monkey	10/25-10/31	1010LV	Clinton 43, Trump 42
	Remington Research	10/30	790LV	Clinton 44, Trump 48
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	310LV	Clinton 48, Trump 46
	*Emerson College	10/26-10/27	550LV	Clinton 44, Trump 42
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/7-10/27	290LV	Clinton 40, Trump 40
	Gravis	10/25	880RV	Clinton 46, Trump 46
	*Marist	10/20-10/24	710LV	Clinton 43, Trump 43
	Arizona	Clinton 43.6, Trump 45.4
	SurveyMonkey	10/25-10/31	1460LV	Clinton 43, Trump 44	Polls Only - Trump +1.3 Adjusted - Trump +2.6 Shy Voter bias - Trump +2.8 Late breaking - Trump +3.3
	*Data Orbital	10/29-10/30	550LV	Clinton 41, Trump 45
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	370LV	Clinton 43, Trump 51
	*CBS/YouGov	10/26-10/28	990LV	Clinton 42, Trump 44
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/14-10/27	550LV	Clinton 43, Trump 42
	Saguaro Strategoes	10/22-10/24	2390LV	Clinton 48, Trump 46
	*Monmouth	10/21-10/24	400LV	Clinton 45, Trump 46
	Colorado	Clinton 44.0, Trump 41.3
	SurveyMonkey	10/25-10/31	1530LV	Clinton 43, Trump 39	Polls Only - Clinton +2.7 Sample bias - Clinton +1.9 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.8 Late breaking - Trump +0.5
	Remington Research	10/30/	950LV	Clinton 45, Trump 44
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/14-10/27	440LV	Clinton 46, Trump 43
	*CBS/YouGov	10/26-10/28	1000LV	Clinton 42, Trump 39
	Pennsylvania	Clinton 46.0, Trump 42.5
	*The Franklin and Marshall poll showing an eleven point lead is excluded. It was taken from a voter list, so new voters are not included, has a 5.1 margin of error, and was completed almost entirely before James Comey's announcement on Friday. This is definitely not an eleven point race and this poll only serves to throw off the average.				Polls Only - Clinton +3.5 Sample bias - Clinton +2.3 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +1.3 Late breaking - Clinton +0.2
	*Alliance/ESA	10/27-10/31	530LV	Clinton 43, Trump 44
	SurveyMonkey	10/25-10/31	2260LV	Clinton 49, Trump 41
	Google Consumer Surveys	10/25-10/31	1030LV	Clinton 37, Trump 39
	Remington Research	10/30	1250LV	Clinton 45, Trump 43
	Gravis	10/25-10/30	3220RV	Clinton 47, Trump 44
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	370LV	Clinton 50, Trump 46
	*CBS/YouGov	10/26-10/28	1090LV	Clinton 48, Trump 40
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/21-10/27	450.LV	Clinton 48, Trump 46
	*Emerson	10/25-10/26	550LV	Clinton 48, Trump 43
	*Muhlenberg College	10/20-10/26	420LV	Clinton 45, Trump 39
	New Hampshire	Clinton 45.6, Trump 42.3
	*Alliance/ESA	10/27-10/31	530LV	Clinton 44, Trump 40	Polls Only - Clinton +3.3 Sample bias - Clinton +1.6 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.3 Late breaking - Trump +0.4
	*Univ. of New Hampshire	10/26-10/30	620LV	Clinton 46, Trump 39
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	310LV	Clinton 50, Trump 47
	Inside Sources	10/26-10/28	410LV	Clinton 43, Trump 45
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/7-10/27	160LV	Clinton 44, Trump 40
	*Emerson	10/23-10/25	600LV	Clinton 46, Trump 43
	*Monmouth	10/22-10/25	400LV	Clinton 46, Trump 42

[HamiltonJay]

If any poll using 2012 modeling is showing Trump up 5... add at least 3-5 to it... this election won’t look ANYTHING like 12... folks have been in denial about that from day one.

Absolutely the disenfranchised are filtered out as non likely voters, because generally speaking if you haven’t voted in the last 2 or 3 cycles pollsters assume you won’t vote this time, no matter how much you tell them you intend to.... this is basically the Monster Vote... and if it exists (and I fully believe it does, particularly in the rust belt).. Trump will get far more than any poll is showing.

The only reason all cycle to question Trump doing well in WI, was the GOPe attempt to stop him during the primaries there... I originally had fear they went so far overboard there, that they may have poisoned the electorate there for Trump during the General... that doesn’t appear to be the case, so I have no reason to question Trump being able to win WI.

CT, don’t know enough about the state to comment. I do think Trump has potential to upset in places no one is remotely thinking about... its hard to imagine if Trump does wind up running the table heavy in places like OH, WI, MI, PA and IA that he will not upset and surprise in other places... My gut, anyplace Hillary is polling less than 5 up, Trump is likely to take... anything she’s up 5-10... surprises could happen.. I don’t care what part of the country or what its historic voting patterns are.

[LS]

4 yes

[justiceseeker93]

I’d like to see reemergence of federalism. No 270 votes? Fine, send the election to the House of Reps and see if weak-kneed pubbies can find a backbone.

The only conceivable ways that the election can be sent to the House are (1) a 269-269 tie in EVs or (2) McMullin wins Utah and neither Trump nor the Witch quite get to 270.

In either case, the weak-kneed Pubbies would probably prefer Trump, but they might try to extract some concessions out of him in return for their support.

It would be better than a 'Rat win but worse than an outright Trump win in the electoral vote. But it's very unlikely to happen.

[justiceseeker93]

RCP this year has been so obnoxious. They include obvious outliers intended to throw off their averages.

RCP is obviously dominated by 'Rats and their "averaging" of biased polling results only enhances the bias in their direction. Polling averages are generally meaningless because they lump together various polls using various methods and biases, and taken at different times. Garbage in, garbage out!

[Political Junkie Too]

Survey Monkey polls are online polls, but different from the snap polls that Drudge and the MSM use.

Survey Monkey uses website consumers who are searching for online coupons. As a condition of receiving the coupon, they are asked to take a marketing survey. At the conclusion of that survey they are asked if they wish to take a current events survey for additional discounts. It is this second survey that is used.

The trade-off is that it is still self-selected of people looking for product discounts, but the population is very high (their methodology supposedly handles this).

-PJ

[b4me]

did you send to drudge or anyone who could report on it?

[TheRef]

Tonight will be interesting for sure.

[TheRef]

that was a map mistake. I have MN going blue.

[TheRef]

Yep, you’re right. I had MN going blue, it was a map mistake. corrected it. Thanks!

[Paladin2]

This poll stuff drives me crazy.

It is certainly manufactured "news" as it can, at best, represent the current situation.

Clairvoyance as to the future would be great, but who really has that?

[Paladin2]

This poll stuff drives me crazy.

It is certainly manufactured "news" as it can only, at best, represent the current situation.

Clairvoyance as to the future would be great, but who really has that?

[Paladin2]

This poll stuff drives me crazy.

It is certainly manufactured "news" as it can only, at best, represent the current situation.

Clairvoyance as to the future would be great, but who really has that?

[TheRef]

thanks, I try to keep it realistic. It’s all poll-based, as you can see from the article. I can definitely see a plausible Trump landslide if MI, WI and PA go red, and it could actually happen. I can’t see a Hillary one though.

[campaignPete R-CT]

trump has no traction in CT
DEM sweep here.

[ConservaTeen]

Connecticut, I think is in play for Trump. My uncle lives there and the Rat Governor, Mallory, is unpopular, taxes are being raised and companies are fleeing (GE moved their HQ to Boston, Rogers moved their HQ to Arizona). I hope Nutmeggers will vote for Trump and Dan Carter and I’d love to see John Larson (D for dumbass - 1 CD) defeated. (Dad knows the Larsons)

[ConservaTeen]

Damn, Dem will sweep :-(... My uncle is sick of the idiots in Hartford. Dad said the worst thing voters did was letting Weicker win and not electing Tom Scott for Governor.

[Impy]

1)I hope it’s right

2)Don’t know

3)Sure, WI is not out of play, but it would be extra. Senate race now a tossup there, Johnson closed the gab, Feingold hit with scandal

4)CT is one my 12 safe Shillery states.