If any poll using 2012 modeling is showing Trump up 5... add at least 3-5 to it... this election won’t look ANYTHING like 12... folks have been in denial about that from day one.
Absolutely the disenfranchised are filtered out as non likely voters, because generally speaking if you haven’t voted in the last 2 or 3 cycles pollsters assume you won’t vote this time, no matter how much you tell them you intend to.... this is basically the Monster Vote... and if it exists (and I fully believe it does, particularly in the rust belt).. Trump will get far more than any poll is showing.
The only reason all cycle to question Trump doing well in WI, was the GOPe attempt to stop him during the primaries there... I originally had fear they went so far overboard there, that they may have poisoned the electorate there for Trump during the General... that doesn’t appear to be the case, so I have no reason to question Trump being able to win WI.
CT, don’t know enough about the state to comment. I do think Trump has potential to upset in places no one is remotely thinking about... its hard to imagine if Trump does wind up running the table heavy in places like OH, WI, MI, PA and IA that he will not upset and surprise in other places... My gut, anyplace Hillary is polling less than 5 up, Trump is likely to take... anything she’s up 5-10... surprises could happen.. I don’t care what part of the country or what its historic voting patterns are.
Connecticut, I think is in play for Trump. My uncle lives there and the Rat Governor, Mallory, is unpopular, taxes are being raised and companies are fleeing (GE moved their HQ to Boston, Rogers moved their HQ to Arizona). I hope Nutmeggers will vote for Trump and Dan Carter and I’d love to see John Larson (D for dumbass - 1 CD) defeated. (Dad knows the Larsons)