Posted on 10/19/2016 1:20:14 PM PDT by GilGil
Party ID (R 24%, D 58%, I 19%) It's a D+34% sample-- Totally pure fantasy.
Is this a Bruce Merrill poll? He’s a big time liberal and this smells like pure BS!
I think the corrupt MSM is running out of R’s and I’s who are even willing to talk to them.
I was called a week ago and asked to take a poll. I just hung up.
D+40000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Make it happen....I need a hearty chuckle!
But yet everyone on Fox has called the election for Hillary, and even has Texas as a toss up state. There is a big disconnect somewhere. Even Limbaugh was giving Trump’s obituary today on the radio. Are there internal polls we can’t see? Are they exit polling early voters, or are they just making things up?
Actually, they polled 58 Dems for every 24 Republicans. There are two numbers at play. The number of Democrats polled was 242% of the number of Republicans polled (58/24 = 2.42). Or, you could say the number of Democrats polled was 142% higher than the number of Republicans polled. (58-24=32. 32/24 = 1.42).
Here’s the internals:
Note table A5, which is the UNWEIGHTED breakdown.
Then note table A6, which confirms that UNWEIGHTED breakdown quite precisely.
Finally, look at table A7, which also claims to be UNWEIGHTED. The party affiliations shift a straight-up 13% from D to I, and an additional 1% to R.
This implies that a net full quarter of Democrats think of themselves as indies... but a net negative number of Republicans do.
Someone’s got some splainin to do.
Contrary to what the OP said, this is a +5% Republican poll, and Trump is losing in it. If Trump is losing Arizona, it is over.
Someone’s got some splainin to do.
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You really have to laugh. this is getting childish like dealing with 5 year olds.
Contrary to what the OP said, this is a +5% Republican poll, and Trump is losing in it. If Trump is losing Arizona, it is over.
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Trump is not losing Arizona. Give it a rest.
Is this the one FOX was bragging about all day?
Pray America wakes
I didn’t say he was losing Arizona, I said he was losing in this poll which has a +5% Republican weighting.
Rush is “on and off” with his treatment of Trump.
Internal polls from Trump campaign are much better than the jokes seen from MSM.
People are getting paid by MSM to depress Trump turnout, but that won’t happen.
I just looked at the internals...where in the world do you see R+5?
They say in the weighting section that they weight by party registration, and they say in the party section that the registration data for AZ is 35% R, 30% D.
Trump is losing Arizona and Elvis is giving a concert tommorrow also
They’re all rigged to favor Democrats.
They are wishful thinking, but we have the final word.
Wasn’t Walter Cronkite a communist who bragged about it after he retired?
What are you talking about, the Democrats are way over polled.
It isn't plus %5 Rep.
Gotcha, so they reweighted the poll and gave more weight to the low number of Republicans polled. This is basically ‘unskewing’ the data and using too small a sample of Republicans to accurately predict what the state turnout would be.
It’s not the ridiculous over sampling as initially thought but still a tremendous amount of assumptions made, which lead to the MOE which is about her ‘lead’. Too close in AZ, but I’m not going to lose sleep over this poll.
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