Human Extinction Isn't That Unlikely

theatlantic.com ^ | April 29, 2016 | ROBINSON MEYER

[PROCON]

“A typical person is more than five times as likely to die in an extinction event as in a car crash,” says a new report.

Nuclear war. Climate change. Pandemics that kill tens of millions.

These are the most viable threats to globally organized civilization. They’re the stuff of nightmares and blockbusters—but unlike sea monsters or zombie viruses, they’re real, part of the calculus that political leaders consider everyday. And according to a new report from the U.K.-based Global Challenges Foundation, they’re much more likely than we might think.

In its annual report on “global catastrophic risk,” the nonprofit debuted a startling statistic: Across the span of their lives, the average American is more than five times likelier to die during a human-extinction event than in a car crash.

[PROCON]

The article didn't come right out and say it, so I will:

"Women, children and minorities hardest hit."

[A CA Guy]

Crashing asteroid, radiation from the sun getting through and baking us.
Of course the planet WILL outlive us.

[JohnnyP]

I’m sure TheWon thinks about this daily.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Scientific American: “Most interesting Geophysical Event of the Decade”

[PROCON]

FYI

[A CA Guy]

No, probably still wondering who took off with the weavos.

[PROCON]

Meh, “Scientific” American.” My Dad stopped his subscription back in the mid 70’s.

[The Spirit Of Allegiance]

Doom. Gloom.

Until next January 20, anyway.

[Telepathic Intruder]

That’s a relief, because I don’t want to die in a car crash. Who is more likely to cause a nuclear war? Islamic fanatics. Who is most likely to case a pandemic? The Chinese. Who is most likely to cause climate change? If not nature, then the Chinese. But I know liberals all want to blame one group: white Americans.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

In its annual report on “global catastrophic risk,” the nonprofit debuted a startling statistic: Across the span of their lives, the average American is more than five times likelier to die during a human-extinction event than in a car crash.

That's not a statistic. It's a probabilistic prediction masquerading as a scientific "fact". The correct phrasing should be "If our model is correct,..." Mighty big if.

[Talisker]

“A typical person is more than five times as likely to die in an extinction event as in a car crash,” says a new report.

Thirty thousand people die each year in car crashes.

There are no known deaths from any known extinction level events.

But hey, who needs logic for a civilization that gave up thinking long ago?

[Larry Lucido]

Yes but one extinction event could really skew those numbers.

[PROCON]

Mighty big if.

Whadda ya mean?

Aren't they always right with their globull warming predictions?

[PROCON]

Yes but one extinction event could really skew those numbers.

Yes, and who'd be around to extrapolate and report?

[fieldmarshaldj]

And when Trump becomes President, the media will double down on the doom and gloom.

[Larry Lucido]

I’ve got my underground shelter. But even if I do report there will be nobody to read it.

[Ruy Dias de Bivar]

***Thirty thousand people die each year in car crashes. ***

I have an old 1956 article somewhere that claims over NINETY THOUSAND people in the USA died in car wrecks in 1955.

[PROCON]

LOL, thanks, I need a chuckle. :-)

[Carthego delenda est]

“but unlike sea monsters or zombie viruses, they’re real”

Really really real!!!

[BitWielder1]

Of course they had to mention Climate Change.
Seems you can't publish anything without those keywords nowadays.
It's very far down on my list of concerns.
Even if true, I have more faith in human adaptability than that.
But it did tell me right away the kind of article it was.