Posted on 04/13/2016 9:04:53 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The conventional wisdom is that though Ted Cruz can excite the conservative-activist base of the Republican party, he can’t beat Hillary Clinton in a general election. But the recent head-to-head polling tells a different story. Unless your name is George W. Bush, it’s tough to win 270 electoral votes without winning the popular vote. And Cruz is hanging in there against the Democratic front-runner. The RealClearPolitics average puts Clinton at 46.4 percent and Cruz at 43.9 percent; the most recent McClatchy-Marist survey has it a tie. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the current Republican front-runner, hasn’t led Clinton in any national poll since mid February, and trails her by 10.6 points in the RCP average. Democrats will contend the Texas senator is unlikeable, and scoff that about 53 percent of adults have an unfavorable opinion of Cruz . . . a charge that would carry more weight if 54 percent of adults didn’t have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton. Cruz and his campaign have openly discussed a general-election strategy focused upon mobilizing conservative voters who haven’t turned out in recent cycles, and de-emphasizing an appeal to swing voters. Quite a few political scientists, pollsters, and analysts are skeptical that the approach can win, but what if 2016 comes down to Hillary Clinton, unloved by the Sanders-backing progressive base and distrusted by independents, against Cruz and an energized GOP base? As NR reported back in January, “Cruz heads the most data-driven campaign in the GOP race, employing cutting-edge technology to profile, target, and turn out supporters. Statistical awareness permeates the culture of the operation from the candidate to his most junior aides.” Based on the Cruz campaign’s deft maneuvering in the delegate chase, there’s some reason to believe the Texas senator’s claims that he can win by focusing on the little details and mobilizing previously ignored voters.
Trump also contends he’ll bring out new voters, winning over blue-collar independents and the old Reagan Democrats. His fans have argued that he would put a lot of traditionally Democratic states, such as New York and Michigan, back in play. But so far, there’s little evidence to back up that claim; Trump trails Clinton in his home state of New York by 16 to 29 points. In the three polls in Michigan in March, Trump trailed by double digits. (Unsurprisingly, Cruz polls badly in these states, too.) Florida is one of the few states where Trump is running better against Clinton than Cruz is. Trump has enjoyed a narrow lead over Clinton in about half the recent polls there, while Clinton nurses a small but steady lead over Cruz. (For what it’s worth, the latest CNN poll has Cruz ahead of her by one point in Florida.)
Cruz is running surprisingly well in Ohio. The most recent NBC News/Marist poll puts Cruz ahead of Clinton by two points there, while Trump trails her by six. Quinnipiac, the only recent poll of the Buckeye State to show Trump leading Clinton, has Cruz ahead of her by three and Trump up by two. RELATED: Ted Cruz Is Surging by Design Pennsylvania is one of those states that seems to tease the GOP every election cycle, only to vote for the Democratic nominee by a comfortable margin. Winning Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes would provide a big boost to any Republican nominee, forcing the Democrats to pick off votes on less-friendly terrain. The good news for Trump is that the most recent poll, by Fox News, has him tied in Pennsylvania. But the four preceding polls of the state showed him trailing Clinton by anywhere from three to 13 points. Fox News didn’t ask about a Cruz–Clinton matchup, but Quinnipiac has Cruz and Clinton tied in Pennsylvania, while Clinton is ahead of Trump by three.
Like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin is one of those potential swing states where Republicans have struggled to compete in recent presidential cycles. Even the presence of Paul Ryan on the ticket in 2012 only reduced Obama’s margin of victory from 14 points to seven. But Cruz is running surprisingly close there; the Emerson poll puts Clinton ahead of him by three points and the Marquette University survey has them tied. The two polls put Trump behind Clinton by ten points. One of the biggest contrasts between the GOP candidates comes in Iowa. NBC News and PPP have Clinton ahead of Tump by eight points and two points respectively. The same polls put Cruz ahead of Clinton by four points and three points. Perhaps one of the strongest arguments for nominating Cruz over Trump is that it would lock up states Republicans should never have had to worry about in the first place. The controversial mogul is so repugnant to some groups of traditionally Republican-leaning voters, he would put some previously deep-red states in play.
A 28-point lead for Ted Cruz over Hillary Clinton in Utah is not particularly surprising — but it is noteworthy given that Clinton actually leads Trump by two in the latest poll of this conservative stronghold, which hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1964. Democrats have dreamed of turning Arizona into a swing state for years; the Merrill poll found Clinton tied with Trump there. The same poll showed Cruz leading Clinton by six points. In Mississippi, a Mason-Dixon poll put Trump ahead of Clinton, 46 percent to 43 percent. The same poll put Cruz ahead of her, 51 percent to 40 percent. If Cruz’s strategy was such a sure loser, so devoid of appeal to anyone outside the conservative base, we might expect his head-to-head polling against Hillary Clinton to be as bad as Trump’s. But in state after state, Cruz runs better than Trump against the likely Democratic nominee. Perhaps this reflects Clinton’s persistently high disapproval numbers, or maybe Trump’s smash-mouth braggadocio makes Cruz look comparably warm and fuzzy. Either way, at this point, Cruz appears to have a legitimate shot against Clinton — not a great shot, but a shot. The same cannot be said of Trump. You do the math.
I’m just looking for a simple “yes” or “no”.
Is 2ndDivisionVet spamming?
He has thus far responded several times, yet not answered that very simple question.
Ted Cruz struggles to break 25% in the Republican polls. Think how badly he will do with independents. He would be a disaster in a general election.
Who cares if he is paid? Why has no one posted any facts or links to opposing data? If it is not true why so many post with out the rebuttal?
Cruz is Constitutionally ineligible to be President, as we’ll find out soon enough if he’s nominated, and the rats bring suit to their boy Roberts and the USSC.
If the Court should miraculously rule that he is eligible I still wouldn’t vote or him in the same manners that I feel the Court overstepped its authority as it pertains to homosexual so-called “marriage” and in ruling that abortion is a “Constitutional right”.
I care if he is being paid.
I care a great deal. And he has thus far, not answered my question.
I am really truly concerned about his health. He needs to take a break. It’s incessant.
Guess he must of changed his mind, people are allowed to do that you know.
If you don't like the Cruz articles them don't click on them.
National Disgrace magazine has ZERO credibility.
Lyin Ted Cruz has Zero credibility.
Ted Cruz is a loser. He has already lost. All his cheating and lyin and stealing a delegate here and a delegate there won’t make any difference. It’s over for him. You Cruzers should just give up and join the Trump movement. It is a movement, folks. Don’t you want America to be great again?
GO TRUMP!
finally more cowbell!
Only someone with severe amnesia would repeat the “MISTAKE of 2008!” Why would anyone do that?
Look at the Similarities - then look at the Facts.
“ROOKIE SENATOR” Ted Cruz is “The Republican Obama”
1) Ted Cruz is a First Term “Rookie” Senator who “vacated” his job to run for President (same as Obama)
2) Besides alienating ranking Republican Senators in the Senate, Ted Cruz “accomplished” ZERO as a United States Senator (same as Obama)
3) Ted Cruz never had a job in the Private Sector (same as Obama). He was a “Government Clerk/Lawyer” - PAID by the TAXPAYER.
4) Ted Cruz never held an Executive Position or Created a Single Job (same as Obama)
5) Ted Cruz never had to meet a Payroll or run a business (same as Obama)
6) Ted Cruz is a LAWYER - He is a “Talker” - which makes him a “fine” Politician (same as Obama)
7) Ted Cruz will appoint Political “Hacks” to Prominent Positions in Government, because THAT’S THE ONLY PEOPLE HE KNOWS - LAWYERS AND POLITICIANS! (same as Obama)
8) Ted Cruz will be beholden to Special Interests and Donors (same as Obama)
9) Ted Cruz will keep the “Status-Quo” in Power (same as Obama)
10) Ted Cruz will make a fine “Puppet President” (same as Obama)
11) Ted Cruz is a Zionist. He stated “If you will not stand with Israel, then I will not stand with you!” Really Ted? Israel can do NO Wrong?
12) Ted Cruz’s father, Raphael Cruz, preaches from the pulpit of the GREEDY TELEVANGELIST Kenneth Copeland.
ENOUGH IS ENOUGH America! The United States Government should be run by WE-THE-PEOPLE and NOT the USUAL “Political HACKS”, POLITICIANS and LAWYERS anymore! Cruz IS A LAWYER and that’s all he KNOWS how to do is TALK! No Business Sense at all!
America! Let’s also BE SMART and NOT VOTE FOR the Business-As-Usual “Establishment!” Remember the Romney Video on Youtube put out by Newt Gingrich titled “When Mitt Romney Came To Town”. It’s still there for your viewing enjoyment! That’s who supports Ted Cruz!
AMERICA! Don’t make the SAME MISTAKE that we made in 2008 by Electing a “Rookie Senator” (Obama) to the Presidency! It’s so foolish to have the “Establishment” SCREW US OVER AGAIN!
To answer your question, all I will say is this to you and LYIN’ Ted. Ted Cruz wouldn’t even be in this Race at this point if he hadn’t LIED on his Financial Statements about the Loans he had taken with Goldman Sachs for his Campaign ——AND—— the (LOC) Line of Credit he and his wife secured with Citibank —— while “railing against” Wall Street and the Banks during his Campaign Stumps and during the Debates. LYIN’ Ted! Telling the Truth, some of the time...Ripping the voters off, ALL of the time.....
You still have not posted anything to refute what 2nd posted. Stop deflecting and show where the article is wrong. Post up some data.
His being paid does not matter if the information is true. Stop being a bully and try to carry on a conversation.
No.
I’m trying to find out if a campaign has hired people to spam my favorite website.
I don’t like that, and I want to know whether someone is operating as a spammer right here.
He still won’t answer my very simple question.
Why? I have known 2ndDivisionVet for a number of years. We have emailed back and forth a lot, and had a very friendly relationship.
This year he seems different. Seems like he is ... spamming. I am just asking him, very simply.
Is he spamming?
Like it. It is time.
NR always attacking Trump.
Just ignore the fact that Trump beat Cruz in Ohio by 460,000 votes. Cruz came in third with 13% of the vote.
The reason why he will not answer your question is that you are accusing him of collusion.
Things changed earlier this year. People have taken sides. And people don't like being called a liar and being accused of collusion.
Why should he dignify your question with any type of answer?
Ping to #79 !!
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