Cruz Has Now Beaten Trump in a Majority of States Outside the South

The Weekly Standard ^ | APR 06, 2016 | JEFFREY H. ANDERSON

[TexasCajun]

With his win in Tuesday’s open primary in the blue state of Wisconsin, Ted Cruz has now beaten Donald Trump in 11 of 21 states that have been contested to date outside of the South. Cruz has now beaten Trump in three Midwestern states (Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota—with Cruz having finished second and Trump third in the latter), one Northeastern state (Maine), three Plains states (Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas), three Western Frontier states (Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming), and one state outside of the Lower 48 (Alaska).

The South is Trump country, and he is undefeated there, having posted 11 wins and 0 losses in states ranging from Arkansas and Louisiana to the west and Kentucky and Virginia to the north. Yet Trump has now posted a winning percentage of just .429 (with 9 wins and 12 losses) outside of the South. None of the remaining contests are in the South (unless one considers West Virginia to be part of the South, in which case Trump will likely soon be 12-0 in Southern states).

It is striking that Cruz won in Wisconsin despite John Kasich's continued presence in the race. While the Ohio governor is anything but a juggernaut, his presence helps divide the anti-Trump vote. Indeed, it is not clear what other purpose his candidacy is serving at this point.

Kasich's won-lost record is now 1-31. To put that into perspective, his winning percentage (.031) is exactly half of the historical winning percentage of #15 seeds versus #2 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Outside of his home state of Ohio, Kasich is 0-31, matching the historical winning percentage for #16 seeds. No last-second shot is going to save Kasich.

[The_Harlequin]

Let’s first face the simple reality that Trump supporters hate Cruz supporters, Cruz supporters hate Trump supporters, and the GOP establishment hates them both. It’s time to take this war where it’s belonged all the time: to Obama, Hillary and their fellow radicals on the Left.

[over3Owithabrain]

As we’ve discussed before, Trump needed 75 delegates between WI and NY to stay on pace for 1,237. Since he only got 6 in WI he will need 69+ in NY. That is very doable and would negate any effect from WI (I expected at least 12 delegates there).

[xzins]

Trump has won 20 states
Cruz has won 10 states
Rubio has won 2 states
Kasich has won 1 state

There are 17 states remaining and roughly 715 delegates depending on whose count you use.

The remaining states are below. I’ve put 3 stars next to those that are either naturals for Trump because they’re in his back yard or where he’s known to be leading in the polls. I’ve put 1 star next to naturals for Cruz. I would have given him Colorado, but Kasich is known to be leading in the polls there right now.

The following are the remaining states, according to Wikipedia.

Colorado
***New York
***Connecticut
***Delaware
***Maryland
***Pennsylvania
***Rhode Island
Indiana
*Nebraska
West Virginia
Oregon
Washington
***California
*Montana
***New Jersey
New Mexico
*South Dakota

[Zack Attack]

One candidate has won every state that begins and ends with the letter “O”.

Vote Kasich!

[Mrsgell]

I think you are right and I think that was a factor last night. Exit polls said people were in favor of a Muslim ban, but against a wall, they wanted amnesty. Lots of farms need lots of cheap labor.

[jospehm20]

I suspect that you will see the pre November 2015 Cruz if he gets elected. Legalize everybody, double legal immigration and 5x H1B increases. It is what his masters want.

[markman46]

little marco won the minnesota caucus not cruz. nice try NRO

[LucyT]

She appears to be an angry, hostile kid who hates her dad.

.

[No Socialist]

“What else does Trump have left in his quiver? “

It’s not really Trump I was referring to. It was the media piling on to tear down the republican front runner like they always do as they do everything they can to get the commies elected.

Cruz doesn’t have charisma, he’s not that likeable to anyone other than conservatives and a lot of conservatives don’t like him either.

I would feel better about Cruz if he didn’t jump on the media and liberal bandwagon at Trump’s Chicago rally. He showed that he isn’t the voice to tell this country some hard truths that they don’t want to hear.

In any event, it’s not going to be pretty until November. I may have to go on radio and news silence.

[Pollster1]

Why would this statistic matter unless someone expects the South to secede between now and the November election?

[Jane Long]

Something is just not right, with that situation. Sad.

Also...Hidey not looking good. Something’s up with that, too.

[E20erer]

“Lyin Ted” is almost worn out by now, for example. The infidelity story has about run its course. What else does Trump have left in his quiver?

---

FALSE

Lyin’ Ted is the new hashtag on twitter, Instagram and social media

#CruzSexScandal is only getting started as NE is coming out with a new story next week and SUPPOSEDLY hookers are shopping their first hand accounts through various avenues in order to hit pay dirt on their first hand account. Different scenario that what happened with the rape stuff with Clinton and the drug induced allegations with Cosby. Or the willing Baby Mama scenario with John Edwards.

This supposed story is supposedly about straight up Cruz hooker for hire, year over year.

[E20erer]

It is very obvious day in and day out that PAID CRUZ OPERATIVES post on free republic more than even the average poster.

FACT

And it is easy to spot them because they are so over the top with their Talking Points and non stop anti-Trump threads. They are easy to spot. Many are paid by Pacs. LOL

Fastest way to shut down a Cruz anti Trump thread on free republic is to mention the #CruzSexScandal or to post the DC Madams Texas phone numbers. psssst Pass it on

Here are just some of the TX numbers posted

Did Cruz have a TX or DC or VA phone number during this time frame?

TX numbers

5/18/2006,2:48,PM,SANANTONIO,TX,210,882-6591

1/26/2006,2:59,PM,GRANDPRARI,TX,214,616-3080

9/29/2005,4:47,PM,SANANTONIO,TX,210,310-4983

8/24/2005,4:05,PM,HOUSTON,TX,713,366-2265

Not saying those were Cruz’s old phone numbed. Not sure. Who knows if he had one of the many DC phone numbers listed on the leak.

However, what we do know is that the paid Cruz operatives on free republic are freaking out if you dare talk about it. LOL

http://pastebin.com/1HJP7QYU

[E20erer]

Exhibit A: Way to shut down a thread

Discuss and/or post DC Madam TX phone numbers

Cruz team must have instructed paid online posters to ignore any threads that talked about DC Madam Texas, cough Cruz, phone numbers.

Have no idea if any of these phone number belong to Cruz of if any of the other 1000’s of phone number, including DC and MD belonged to Cruz back in the day.

What we do know or seems pretty obvious is that paid Cruz operatives were told not to comment on any type of #CruzSexScandal threads.

Thread shut down again. lol

[WVKayaker]

What else does Trump have left in his quiver?

Hahahahahaaaaaaa! Teddy Bares are so amusing. Teddy is losing by MILLIONS OF VOTES and HUNDREDS OF DELEGATES! Donald Trump is the one with the loaded quiver, while Teddy Bare can't go 2 minutes without using the name of Trump in his "talking points"! Trump is living LARGE in all the Teddy Bare minds.

VOTE FOR THE WINNER. VOTE TRUMP!

VOTE FOR THE WINNER. VOTE TRUMP!

VOTE FOR THE WINNER. VOTE TRUMP!

VOTE FOR THE WINNER. VOTE TRUMP!

VOTE FOR THE WINNER. VOTE TRUMP!

VOTE FOR THE WINNER. VOTE TRUMP!

VOTE FOR THE WINNER. VOTE TRUMP!

VOTE FOR THE WINNER. VOTE TRUMP!

VOTE FOR THE WINNER. VOTE TRUMP!

VOTE FOR THE WINNER. VOTE TRUMP!

VOTE FOR THE WINNER. VOTE TRUMP!

VOTE FOR THE WINNER. VOTE TRUMP!

VOTE FOR THE WINNER. VOTE TRUMP!

VOTE FOR THE WINNER. VOTE TRUMP!

[jpsb]

Delegate count:

Trump--743
Cruz---517
Rubio--171
Kasick-143

So what happens to Rubios' delegates? What happens to Kasic if Kasick drops out? Give them to Cruz and Cruz has 831 delegates. give them to Trump and Trump has 1057.

[jjotto]

State rules. Some make them ‘free agents’, some bind their votes regardless, and some apportion them between remaining active candidates.

[SunkenCiv]

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"Cruz wins 100% of the vote in the remaining primaries and he still falls short." -- How the Rest of the Delegate Race Could Unfold, 8 posted on 04/06/2016 5:18:17 AM PDT by King of Florida

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[ConservativeDude]

I agree with everything you wrote; however, I am also inclined to give deference to the Blue Wall, meaning those states won by the D’s every time since 1992. I don’t see that changing, so she begins with like 240 EVs.

That means it all comes down to Ohio, like 2004.

I only see the GOP winning very narrowly, if at all....like 2000 or 2004. But you seem more optimistic that each race is a new one, and states are not necessarily committed one way or the other. I sure hope you are right.