Then voter nullification of the largest voting block becomes Ted' only route to the nomination.
Voter nullification... Ted Cruz, little man on campus.
Posted on 04/06/2016 9:26:26 AM PDT by sally234
This race began with 17 candidates, but because of the unprecedented coverage of Donald Trump it really has been a one-man race for most of the election. There has been a false choice between whether people love Trump or hate him – just by virtue of the media coverage alone. Given the divided field and the lack of coverage, Ted Cruz lacked the ability to stand out and coalesce people behind a positive conservative, anti-establishment message.
Tonight’s sweeping victory in Wisconsin proves team Cruz’s original thesis: as long as this is a two-man race and as long as Cruz can get his message out, Trump can be defeated in almost every state. In many ways, this could be the Waterloo of the election.
Here are some observations and outcomes from this race:
(Excerpt) Read more at conservativereview.com ...
Then voter nullification of the largest voting block becomes Ted' only route to the nomination.
Voter nullification... Ted Cruz, little man on campus.
Point 6 (Kasich is an Embarrassment) is spot on, but the delegate math is fantasy. No way does Cruz win Maryland and come out with a nearly equal number of delegates from Pennsylvania on April 26.
2 more weeks of this crapola until Trump squashes Ted in NY.
Cruz has won 2 states out of the last what, 8? Utah and Wisconsin. His big Utah win was undercut by Arizona. His Wisconsin win is magnified only because it is the only thing going on, and because people like Horowitz want to use it for propaganda purposes to make it look like some kind of turning point. But it's not, it's no bigger than Utah. On to New York!
Problem one is its getting late in the game plus the northeast is next up to bat. If Ted can win a northeast state or two he's viable but if not then any Cruzmentum from Wis could be a mute point.
So far, Trump has received about 35% of the votes cast. A 35% plurality was sufficient to win most of the primaries when the rest of the vote was split between a dozen candidates.
It would still be sufficient in a three candidate race if Kasich could win 33% of the votes. Absent a much better turnout for Kasich, Trump is going to have to start winning a lot more than 35% of the vote to keep winning primaries.
There is no question that Trump will win NY and no one is pretending otherwise. The question is whether Trump will win more than 50% in NY. So far, even with only three candidates left in the race, Trump has been unable to win a majority of the vote in any state.
If Trump cannot win a clear majority in his home state with only three candidates left in the race, then he cannot win a majority anywhere.
It may be more of a Salamanca than a Waterloo. There’s lots of fighting ahead, and unlike Napoleon after Waterloo, Trump remains formidable.
Welcome to FR. In the future, please post your blog material in our bloggers forum.
Cruz’s win=Germany’s Battle of the Bulge
Of course your candidate can.
Sure.
Agree. Then we can stop listening to him say how the other delegates were stolen.
IOW 323 delegates are up for grabs.
But it still a fact that 1237 is the magic number because the 323 are part of the total of which 1237 is the 50+% threshold.
Trump's delegate mathematician, Barry Bennett, a mild mannered tactician with more than 40 years experience in delegate math and political campaigns, has estimated Trump will pick up at least 100 of the 323 unbound.
Barry Bennett, Delegate Mathematician and Manager
Barry may not be suited for the cover of GQ but he's smart as hell. He is one of the top few that one can count on the fingers of one hand that knows what he's doing.
Bennett's path to victory totals to 1450 which many shake their heads as unrealistic but it includes picking up some of the 323 delegates up for grabs at the Convention. Donald himself said if they do pretty well, not amazing but 'pretty well', they will hit 1400.
Some reasonable persons confirm that it is realistic that Donald Trump will pickup at least 100 of the 323 unbound delegates. The import of that is that 1237 is very feasible.
Does Wisconsin change all that? No, well actually yes but not in the way Cruz supporters would want it to change.
Bennett in his delegate map to the nomination had allowed for ZERO delegates to be picked up in WI. ZERO! But as it is Donald is gaining 3 to 6 delegates from WI. Those are bonus delegates! The path to the nomination counted ZERO but the campaign actually gained delegates.
I look back and admire even more the smart campaigning that Donald did in WI. Bennett counseled him that Madison , Milwaukee and the corridor up to Green Bay were lost causes. But the outlying areas of small towns was a very fruitful place to pickup not only votes but also delegates. So now we know why Donald was in all those small towns in WI. It all makes sense. They were going and are still going for every single delegate they can find, and Barry Bennett has the map to do it.
So now we know one of the strategic brains behind Trump. I am looking to find out now about the tactical brains behind him, meaning the persons who are making plans to arrange media topics, events and incidents.
The Wisconsin story is that Trump did surprisingly better than expected (final percents 35%/48.5% Trump/Cruz) and walked away with bonus delegates. Similar to a gorilla army raiding a large enemy force for arms and supplies to use in the next battles, Trump's campaign scored a successful hit and run that most of the media hasn't the smarts to recognize. This shows the way to fight a war.
Except it wasn't a two man race dummy...and but for a popular incumbent governor getting involved and mobilizing his network, Cruz wouldn't have won.
Thanks for the post.
Interesting.
So Trump is closer than they thought he would be.
LOL >> great
Yes, and the media is having a field day AGAIN saying that Trump has met his Waterloo, Trump is Beatable, Trump in Chaos, Trump Upset in Wisconsin, and so on.
And yet they haven’t a clue or don’t care to know that Trump took away more delegates from WI than he had planned for.
Such a comedy! This will go on through the weekend as Cruz basks in the media lights. But what a sham the whole thing is. Emotions emerge and fade. Next week Trump will climb again and the nutjobs in the press will be gnashing their teeth yet AGAIN. A definition of ‘stupid’ is an inability to learn from past experiences.
Sounds like Trump has to invent an accusation against Cruz especially nasty to dominate the MSM attention away from this humiliating loss:
Cheating on wife?? Trump Already did it
Lying ?? Trump Already did it
Breaking Law ? Trump already did it
Not being an American ? Trump already did it
.....
I know, child molestation...that will lure the MSM back ...
‘
Good info. thanks for posting.
“Hey... Who got his ass kicked last night?”
“Trump got his ass kicked last night”
Five minutes later... “Hey... Who got his ass kicked last night?”
“Trump got his ass kicked last night”
Five minutes later... “Hey,... Who got his ass kicked last night?”
“I keep telling you, Trump got his ass kicked last night. Don’t you remember?”
“Yeah... But I just like hearing you say it!”
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