Posted on 02/08/2016 12:23:53 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Two-and-one-half months before last week's Iowa Caucus, columnist S.A. Miller of The Washington Times noted what could be called "The Trump Effect" on poll numbers with an article entitled "Donald Trump seen unlikely to win in Iowa despite poll numbers":
Laura Kamienski, a Republican Party caucus precinct representative for Hiawatha District in Cedar Rapids ... said she expects a surprise in the caucus this cycle similar to former Sen. Rick Santorum's unexpected win in 2012. Mr. Santorum is back in the 2016 Republican race but is polling near the bottom of the crowded field in Iowa and nationally.
...Pollsters defended their survey methods and stood by their numbers. But some credited Mr. Trump's dominance in polls to his near-universal name recognition as star of the hit TV shows "The Apprentice" and "Celebrity Apprentice."
Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski dismissed any doubt about the poll numbers. He said it was coming from the same "political pundits who have been wrong every step of the way" about Mr. Trump's candidacy, including predicting he would fade after the summer... He also noted that they had hired the Iowa organizer from Mr. Santrorum's 2012 campaign, Chuck Laudner, who is considered one of the most formidable grass-roots organizers and get-out-the-vote strategists in the state.
At the time, Trump and Carson were dominating the polls in Iowa. As it turned out, Kamienski -- who pointed out that she had seen no real evidence of large-scale Trump support -- astutely predicted a surprise in February. That turned out to be case as Ted Cruz walked away the victor by a significant margin.
The critical question that Miller and others have raised is the possibility that some poll respondents choose Trump based not upon policy positions but because they recognize his name.
In my non-scientific discussions with various registered voters, I have discovered a rather significant percentage who are unfamiliar with the name of any GOP candidate, except for that of Donald Trump.
Mention Trump's name, however, and you see faces light up. The recognition and the reality show association is immediate. Quite a few are able to parrot Trump's (in)famous quote from The Apprentice -- "You're fired!" -- but know little else of the candidate's background or political preferences.
Of course, many Trump advocates are quite familiar with the candidate and are certainly energized to vote. A Trump advocate observed after a November speech by the GOP frontrunner that many of the attendees "are not simply gawkers or fans of his TV shows."
I suspect that many of these people are frustrated with the additional burdens and strife that Obama and the federal government have inflicted upon them; they are turning out as a result of Trump's fame and the role he portrayed on his reality television show.
The term "low-information voter" may be too harsh, but I suspect that many Trump supporters feel the increased problems weighing them down but they can't exactly identify the cause nor the origin of their problems.
They are not aware of imminent crises here and abroad, but they have then taken Trump's reality show role and are applying it to the real world. They then conclude in their own minds that whatever the reason for the problems, Donald has always been successful dealing with it on TV and they extend that notion to Donald being the answer in present world circumstances.
These folks have stayed glued to the television for so long that they are convinced that the Donald is the solution to their problems. They have, however, come to the realization that they cannot change the channel.
With that said, it is also likely that many poll respondents who offer Trump as their preferred candidate do so only because they recognize his name.
This could provide insight into Trump's inability to meet the pollsters' predictions in Iowa and it could portend further disappointment for the billionaire real estate investor.
It may also explain Trump's lowering of expectations in New Hampshire over the past several days.
"...Most of those who didn't stay for the entire speech appeared to be college students. Some told DailyMail.com that they were not Trump supporters and were assigned to attend the rally by a political science professor.
Trump's presentation was largely the recycled stuff of stump speeches. By the 45-minute mark, some of the younger crowd began streaming out.
Fifteen minutes later, large empty spaces were visible where rally-goers had stood cheek-to-jowl.
'We figured, "We've been here as long as our class would last, so - you know, we're outta here",' said a student named Tyler who sported a Plymouth hoodie. 'I wouldn't listen to a professor for more than 45 minutes, right?'.....
I still can’t believe voters would put the “bellboy” anywhere close to the other 5 very accomplished candidates.. amazing to me
Go back and look at the predictions of the Iowa outcome in the live thread. First prediction starts at post 3.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3391555/posts
He had the %$#D@&^# governor and an entire industry working against him! It’s a miracle he won.
We’ll find out Tuesday
you do understand that 10 percent of the 1500 student weren’t Trump voters in the first place they were probably Hillary or Bernie voters who were curious about seeing Trump because they were already on campus?.. and I’m betting the vast majority of the other 1350 students cheered Trump
an absolutely stupid article but I’m not surprised who posted it.. next?
A miracle? Do you not even think about what you type? Cruz had by and large the evangelical votes all locked up. Nothing miraculous about it. What happened was more people participated, ‘voted’ than prior years. Why must everything get spun.
NH is a very Liberal state. If Cruz comes in the top 3, it will be a miracle.
Kasich is polling ahead of Cruz in NH. And Jeb is close behind.
"...Trump's rally at Plymouth State University in Plymouth, New Hampshire, seemed to fall flat with many of the students and undecided voters in the crowd.
Forty-five minutes into his speech, a steady stream of attendees were seen leaving as Trump railed against U.S. trade policy....
Devin-Jean McCormack is an independent voter and graduate student torn between Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders. She called Trump's speech scattered. Her mother, Louise McCormack, agreed, but the professor at the college says she is leaning toward voting for Trump......."
yeah and that’s a problem with Cruz because how in the world is he going to win purple states in the general election when you are already excusing bad showings because the states aren’t Conservative enough?.. there are a load of states Obama won twice that need to switch to Cruz in a general election and it’s just not going to happen.. you just explained the problem with nominating Cruz very well in your post
well I was correct..
can you put up some more anti Trump articles from The Blaze please since we know that Glen Beck’s website is so non partisan?
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90% of college graduates are indoctrinated liberal idiots.
(100% Trumpster here). No, it's not. The campaign has to get out those voters. A lot of folks who recognize Trump's impressive leadership and organizational ability are glued to the TV. Trump's masterful campaign is a nation-wide Candidate Apprentice game. They've got to get those voters out to the polls, not just glued to the TV waiting for the results.
Getting out the vote has to be treated like the phase where they get people to buy stuff. You know, when they get out in the street and almost drag people in. When they call all their friends and plead their case.
>> The term “low-information voter” may be too harsh, but I suspect that many Trump supporters feel the increased problems weighing them down but they can’t exactly identify the cause nor the origin of their problems.
Behold the complimentary psychoanalysis that explains our misguided support for Trump.
Hmmmm....you would think in that case, Huckabee and Santorum would have had a better showing than they did, seeing as they were the winners in 2008 and 2012.
Last week’s newspaper.
You mean like “sundance” at conservative treehouse?
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