U.S. will reach 400 Million Private Firearms by end of Obama Presidency

Gun Watch ^ | 1 September, 2015 | Dean Weingarten

[marktwain]

The National Instant Check System (NICS)  performs a check when people buy firearms from federally licensed dealers in the United States.  It is also used to perform background checks on people applying for firearm carry permits in those states where such permits are required or offered by law.  As there are now over 15 million carry permits in the United States, and firearm sales numbers are in the 10 to 20 million range per year, you can see that the number of NICS checks is not a perfect fit for the number of firearms sold.

One of the reasons for this is that one check can be used to purchase multiple firearms, and most people with carry permits are not required to have an instant check performed when they purchase a firearm.  They had it done when they obtained their permit.

We have a good measure of how many additional firearms are added to the U.S. private stock each year.  That number is compiled by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF).  The ATF tracks licensed firearm manufacture, import, and export numbers.  Those numbers are assembled each year.  ATF takes about 18 months to process the numbers and publish them.  We do not have data on how many used firearms are sold by dealers.  Presumably, they fall into the 40% of NICS checks that are done in excess of the new firearms added.

You can compare the ATF increase in the private firearms stock with the NICS checks done for that year.   The correlation is very high, with r= .9776.  1.0 would be a perfect fit.  At that correlation level, I have confidence in predicting the increase in private firearms from the NICS numbers.

Over the fifteen years that have been recorded, there have been 1.685 NICS checks for each additional firearm added to the private stock in the United States.  Multiplying the NICS check numbers (provided monthly by the FBI) by .5934 gives us a good approximation of the firearms added.

At the end of 2013, the private firearm stock in the United States is estimated at 363.3 million firearms.  16 million were added in 2013.   According the the FBI figures, the NICS checks for 2014 were 20.969 million.  That would be another 12.44 million firearms added in 2014.

In the first seven months of 2015, there were an additional 12.067 million NICS checks.  Another 7.16 million firearms were added.  Continuing that rate for the whole year would bring the total to 12.277 million added in 2015.

At the end of 2015, the stock should be at 388+ million firearms.  Given the current trend, another 12 million or more firearms will be added in 2016, bringing the total stock to 400 million+ firearms by the end of the Obama presidency.

At the end of 2008 and the beginning of the Obama presidency, there were about 308 million private firearms in the United States.   After eight years of President Obama in the highest executive position, I predict that there will be over 400 million.

If the trend for 2013 only is applied to 2014 and 2015  (based on the NICS numbers they are very similar), the 400 million mark will be reached by the end of May, 2016, and by the end of the year, there will be about 409 million private firearms in the United states.

That is a net gain of between 92 million and 101 million firearms in eight years, making President Obama the greatest firearm salesman of all time.

Source for NICS numbers: From fbi.gov(pdf)

©2015 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.  Link to Gun Watch

[Marcella]

The military bulldozer will be good for burying the zombie bodies and heads.

[Red in Blue PA]

Think about it: are you seriously prepared mentally to kill another human being?

If it is kill or be killed, and you have that thought in your head, IMO there is something wrong with you.

[sergeantdave]

The author forgot to include all the ammo that DHS, USPS, EPA, ATF, etc., is buying for us. It’s billions of rounds.

[eartick]

The mini 14 was a great lil ranch rifle and I own a couple of them.

But it is not a .308 and if you were ever in a fire fight there is a big difference between the two calibers when you start laying down the heat.

[Romans Nine]

I agree they (Mini-14)are a great rifle for dependability. I killed many many coyotes with one. I never had a FTF or FTE with my Mini even while neglecting to clean one that rode in the truck for its whole life. The action is far superior to an AR in my opinion but there accuracy is terrible past 50 yards.

The M1A is my favorite rifle. I would never try to replace a .308 with a .223 but I wish the Mini was available off the shelf with some decent accuracy.

I

[Lurker]

Bird shot is for birds, dear lady. Even at close range that stuff won’t penetrate a stiff leather jacket. Get rid of it.

L

[marktwain]

“I wish the Mini was available off the shelf with some decent accuracy.”

I am told that they have improved quite a bit from the early production, and that the Ranch Rifle is a bit better than the standard Mini.

I know that with just a few and cheap improvements, (if you are a little handy) their accuracy can be improved a good bit.

[archy]

Bird shot is for birds, dear lady. Even at close range that stuff won’t penetrate a stiff leather jacket. Get rid of it.

Oh, but it does such a fine job on the face and eyes. I keep a birdshot [well, a #4 goose load] in my bear insurance shotgun for just that very reason. But it's not the first one up the spout.

Should Mr. Bruin, or other pests up on their two hind legs be far enough out that the shot load is ineffective, no great loss, crank away and let fly again. But if the first one didn't do the job, it's nice to be able to slap him around a bit in a way he won't like.