Trump third party could surprise. One factor is those Sanders supporters. They could cast their protest vote for Trump if Sanders is treated unfairly. Besides that, a lot of traditional dem votes, including a percentage of blacks, are real unhappy with their current situation, and see the dems doing more for foreigners than for them.
Probably yes, there is some chance 3rd party with Trump could win, if Sanders supporters lodge lots of protest votes.
But Trump versus Hillary, one on one is the best scenario.
“One factor is those Sanders supporters. They could cast their protest vote for Trump if Sanders is treated unfairly”
Remember when we thought Hillary! supporters would vote for Romney because of the way she was treated by the Dems? They even had a group name that presently alludes me now. Nonetheless, it collapsed completely on election day. Chickens went home to roost.