Posted on 08/09/2015 11:53:42 AM PDT by dontreadthis
I consider myself more an activist than a politico. That said, I’ve worked on campaigns and have a good understanding of what makes them tick. I’ve worked on city level races, county races, federal house races, a senate and a Gubernatorial race.
Some things are always unpredictable. But others are always predictable. Inevitably, there are candidates whose fans/followers believe that through sheer will their candidate can and will win. I watched this happen with Sharron Angle in Nevada, Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and Doug Hoffman in New York. There are many, many other examples of it over just the past six years.
You have an “insurgent” candidate who captures the hearts and minds of those loyal to principle over party, but the candidate ignores the basic fundamentals of campaigning and pays for it dearly. Sure, candidates like Trump, Palin and Angle have fans who will crawl over glass to help them. When it came to Angle I was one of those fans. I know Angle personally. I knew her when she was an Assemblywoman in Nevada’s 26th AD in Northwest Reno. I knocked doors with her to push her Prop 13 ballot initiative. I then volunteered for an eventually worked for her run against Dean Heller (then Secretary of State) for Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District. And I was invited to her campaign’s special hotel suite in Vegas as it was announced that she had won the Senate primary, shocking the political realm and handing Sue Lowden a stunning defeat.
Angle then went on to suffer a huge defeat by Harry Reid. One that left her supporters with their faces in their hands, confused as to what happened and how it happened.
No doubt Reid’s political machine used some questionable tactics. No doubt there was fraud involved. But ultimately Reid’s campaign flanked Angle at every turn. It didn’t matter how dedicated and determined Angle’s team was because Reid had the money, the network, the players and the infrastructure needed to outgun Angle in every way possible.
A Presidential campaign is certainly an entirely different animal in terms of scope and scale. Running a statewide campaign is a beast in and of itself. But running 50 statewide campaigns simultaneously is a whole different kind of monster.
Take Florida, for example. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has reportedly decided to somewhat sit out the Florida primary. This move, in my view, is the right move and only logical move their team can make.
Why? Because Florida is very, VERY expensive. Florida is a massive state covering multiple expensive media markets. To give you an idea, the Romney campaign spent more than $11,000,000 on ads alone in 2012. That doesn’t include the pro-Romney Super PAC outfits. Nor does it include what Romney had to spend to have staff, offices and GOTV infrastructure in place in virtually every county in Florida.
Both Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio have run statewide campaigns in Florida. Both already have a statewide foundation to build on. They know the county chairmen/women, they know the organizers, they know who ran the show for them locally before, they know where to get the deals on GOTV infrastructure and they know who they need to be friendly with vs who they need to ignore.
Why would Scott Walker spend millions trying to compete with that when, in all honesty, he can’t win there? Walker is right to pass on Florida. It’s not that he’s going to ignore Florida voters, but he’s certainly going to keep his powder dry and save his big guns for states where he can actually win. Which, in all honesty, is about every state outside of Florida. I mean, outside of Florida, what other state is a guaranteed win for Jeb Bush?
Yeah, let me know when you figure that one out.
Getting back to Trump…
As Newt Gingrich showed us, a lead in the polls is irrelevant if you can’t build campaign infrastructure and get voters to the polls and/or caucuses. And, as Newt so painfully learned, if you’re not prepared for the carpet-bombing of attack ads that will come your way, you’re toast.
And if you think the negative ads that destroyed Gingrich were, bad, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. If I were a coms consultant for an anti-Trump Super PAC or campaign I would be licking my chops right now. Trump supported late abortion, used eminent domain for his business gain, supported universal healthcare and spread around money to the most liberal of liberal Democrat candidates.
Now on a personal level I agree with Sarah Palin’s perspective of Trump’s background and positions.
Shouts of, “But he donated to Democrats!” won’t sway Trump enthusiasts. The man built a skyscraper in New York City – of course, he had donated to Democrats. If he was building it in Salt Lake City, I’m sure he would have donated to Republicans. “But he changed his mind on positions!” Reagan had been an FDR Democrat. Should we hold that against him or be grateful he saw the light? Well, that’s a part of the story. Yes, Trump enthusiasts won’t be swayed. But don’t underestimate the power of the old school social club known as the GOP establishment’s ability to command and control the primary/caucus game.
I’ve seen this first hand. Up close and personal. Conservatives, libertarians and “plugged in” independents tend to be aware of what’s happening year round, regardless of whether or not it’s an election year. But the older ladies wearing sparkly GOP hats and the men in suits with the fancy elephant pins on their collars don’t fully plug in until a couple months out. And when they do, they bring enormous persuasion to the process. Because those people are the party’s county chairs. Those people each bring 50 more people with them to the table. Those are the people who show up out of nowhere and dictate who the more “electable” and “next in line” candidate is. And election after election those people defeat the insurgent candidate when the rest of us think we might have finally solved the puzzle.
Now I’ll admit Donald Trump brings a certain anomaly into the mix. Trump has some extraordinary abilities that Herman Cain and Ron Paul never had. If Trump were positioned like Herman Cain was last time around and team Obama hit him with dirty accusations about his marriage, Trump would simply tell the media to pound sand. And he would back that attitude up with millions of his own dollars to re-enforce said statements.
No doubt, Trump brings a new level of fight to an ugly battle. But don’t for a second think the party bosses and their armies aren’t ready for it. Their playbook is effective and entirely predictable.
The big business, pro-Bush Super PAC are going to unleash an unholy barrage of ads on Trump that will have people who casually pay attention scared to death of Trump as a political leader. And while they initiate this scorched earth political bombing of Trump, the Bush campaign will be running ads that establish him as a “safe” former Governor who cut some taxes and knows how to be a polished leader.
While the pro-Trump groups should be defining Bush for what he really is… a big government, big business hack who will do virtually nothing to slow the massive expansion of government. A political machine that favors government over liberty. A guy who will continue the rotting of American sovereignty in favor of global order. A politician who will do nothing to secure our borders and will help the continuation of the invasion because it pads the pockets of his big corporate benefactors. The pro-Trump entities will instead be stuck in a never-ending position of defense, scrambling to convince the casual crowd that Trump isn’t evil and is looking out for their best interests.
If you think this won’t be the case then you don’t understand how the machine works. Trump can certainly redefine how certain parts of the game are played, but he can’t redefine the entire game.
Trump’s campaign and supporters need to think beyond today and fast. Right now Trump operates almost entirely in the 24 hour media cycle. It’s a strategy that is proving wildly effective in the short term. But it’s a strategy that in many ways isn’t prepared for what’s to come.
My advice to Trump’s army of supporters is simple. You need to relax on preaching to the choir. Trump is doing a fantastic job on that front. What you need to be doing is finding out who your county GOP chair is, who the establishment activists are, and you need to cordially and politely be warming up to them. Then, you need to be in the meetings, the social events and gatherings helping them all understand why Trump could work for America.
Don’t be like the Ron Paul fans. The Paul crowd ridiculed and mocked the party bosses, which ended up hurting Paul in the long term. Instead of converting minds, the Paul fans just pushed minds further away, making the party establishment resent them in every way possible.
Don’t try and hide Trump’s past political sins. Instead, embrace them and help others understand that even Reagan himself had similar sins. Trump represents a great American story. One of many failures, but one that used those failures to learn success. One that had a man in the heart of big government liberal policies (New York) who emerged a financial mega-star through hard-headed maneuvering and powerful management skill.
America is done with shiny politicians. We’re over the political lies and promises. We’re ready for a bull in a China shop and Trump can be that bull.
Unfortunately, there is still one hell of a roadblock in place and it’s called the GOP establishment. Trump is right to engage in combat with the establishment. But at some point the Trump train will need to use the establishment’s tracks. Blowing up those tracks isn’t the answer on the long term front. Because in doing so the establishment will quickly build a bypass for the Bush train.
Mark my words…
Blah, blah blah.
If it was okay for Democrats to overlook Bill Clinton being accused of rape and taking advantage of a naive young female intern - ruining her life! I can overlook Mr. Trump’s verbal gymnastics, previous support of Democrats, taking advantage of laws that other business men also do et al, to be a success in his chosen field.
Trump says he will get things done. I believe him. No one, with the exception of Ted Cruz, wants to dismantle the Washington Cartel.
There comes a time in life, when it’s not all about you. You look around and see that people are being oppressed, our Constitution gutted, and we are spoon fed lies.
I think Mr. Trump wants to do something more. I think he wants to leave his own unique legacy. He wants to help the American people and with our United support make America great again.
“What you need to be doing is finding out who your county GOP chair is, who the establishment activists are, and you need to cordially and politely be warming up to them. Then, you need to be in the meetings, the social events and gatherings helping them all understand why Trump could work for America.”
But what has catapulted Trump to the front and energized the conservatives is that he has taken it to the establishment, the PC crowd, the media. Not trying to soothe them but to bash them.
His only way to victory is to defeat them not mollify them. And if he keeps enunciating policies that jive with conservatives, they will be energized as never before at having a leader that leads from the front and takes no prisoners.
“I say we fight now.”
Agreed.
No time for anything less. There will be no ‘next cycle’, believe me.
Often times he just dissapears for a while and then he's back doing something else.
Remember the dec 27th 2011 debate he was suppose to moderate?
Never happened.
I think Trump is going to eventually endorse one of the GOP candidates. And probably a lot of support. And this candidate will be someone who likely had not bashed him and attacked him. Someone who is also anti-establishment and known for his/her seriousness about securing the border. Someone who is anti-illegal immigrant.
If we Trump supporters don't have our cities, counties and states ready to take Trump to the White House, he isn't going to make it...
I worked on the Santorum campaign when I lived in PA...
Everybody in that commonwealth was for Santorum except:
Philadelphia, Harrisburg and Pittsburg...Those three cities wiped out all of the rest of the State...why? Big bucks and the ‘cartels’ they have...there was Senator Arlen Specker there was Ed Rundell and there was this old guy that was some general....and they had everyone by the throat...
Believe me, that taught me a BIG lesson...just like here in Utah...Orrin Hatch runs this State and he doesn't like Trump so how's that going to work for us...
I don't know but I'm going to once again give my all, but this time I won't be wearing ‘rose colored glasses’....
It’s already ugly.
(snip)
Every member of the Supreme Court, every member of congress, every member of the Joint Chiefs, most members of the DOD, CIA, FBI, Secret Service and state run media, ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, PBS, NPR, MSNBC, Fox and print news, knows that Barack Hussein Obama does NOT meet Article II – Section I constitutional requirements for the office he holds. By his own biography, there is NO way he can pass the test. The hard evidence is so far beyond overwhelming, it is ridiculous.
(snip)
But not ONE member of America’s most powerful people will dare confront Obama and his anti-American cabal on the subject. The Constitution does NOT stand.
(snip)
Half of the people you expect to stop this insanity are quiet co-conspirators in the silent coup. The other half is paralyzed by fear, motivated only by political self-preservation.
(Snip
Americans keep asking what they can do because they see that none of their leaders are doing anything to stop the demise of their beloved country. It’s the right question, because those leaders are NOT going to stop this thing.
(Snip)
Who will save freedom?
A brave few… This is how it was in the beginning, how it has always been and how it will be.
While Cruz remains my top choice, I thinks this article still views things from the standard political POV. Palin, as much as I admire her and would vote for her was not known outside of Alaska before becoming the VP candidate. Trump has his own funds and a national presence from his time on television. He also knows how to use the media to his advantage and doesn’t back down from a fight because he’s not a politician who is making his career on pandering.
Good advice.
You are so right. I would strongly recommend to the Trump supporters here to learn hiw to engage on FB, Twitter, and instagram. Trending, followers and likes are going to be HUGE.
Who is the Canadian Free Press?
What a GREAT article. Someone please forward it to the Trump camp. We need his business know how and his love of this country and it’s citizens. We don’t need another “World Order” president. We’ve had too many. Look at what World Order does, Hillary the poor millionaairess.
So where does Trump get those folks the Democrats use to get the illegals and dead to vote? Plus where can we get those folks that find all those bags of votes after the elections that Judges always say should be counted?
Trumps “helpers” need to do what Eric Odom suggests.
“at some point the Trump train will need to use the establishment’s tracks. Blowing up those tracks isn’t the answer on the long term front. Because in doing so the establishment will quickly build a bypass for the Bush train.”
Trump is not like any of the other candidates past or present. He is self funded. That neutralizes the establishment’s most powerful weapon. They could just spread lies that would ensure any other candidate’s funding would dry up. They can’t do that to Trump.
Yes, they will attempt to flood the airwaves in FL. But Trump can do the same and what is even better for Trump, he hardly has to advertise because most people already know him from the Apprentice. He isn’t some noob trying to get his name out, nor is he trying to rehabilitate himself. Love him or hate him, people already know him. Some people won’t believe he’s conservative enough, but most of those running against him aren’t either. At least he’s fighting all the right people.
Trump’s biggest advantage, Puerto Ricans and Cubans are the two largest hispanic groups in FL. Both groups are here legally; both want illegals to go home. Neither JEB! nor lying Rubio want that. If Trump just concentrates on that, both of those native sons, along with any other amnesty supporter, are going to lose. (Could be a great opportunity for Cruz)
The establishment made the mistake of making FL a winner take all state. So I put nothing past them including massive fraud. JEBBY! will have his buddies in South Florida talk to the dems about gearing up their huge fraud vote machines to pump out votes for him. But I’d be very careful if I were the establishment. The dems aren’t so loyal to republicans. Somewhere down the line they will let the truth slip out, just in time to do the most damage to the republicans in the general election. If the dems keep quiet, it will be at a huge cost to the GOP.
Is it going to get ugly? Sure, just like rats fighting when they are cornered, the establishment knows that if Trump wins, it will probably be the end of their gravy train. Maybe even their end. So I don’t put anything past them.
As for that special establishment built bypass for JEB!, if they try to rig the convention with super delegates and smoky back room meetings, the GOP will be exposed as the fraud it is and they will fully deserve the third party challenge from Trump they will receive.
You can say that again!And the "World Order" "press/media" can get lost too!
Canada Free Press.
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