BURNING CITIES: Can It Happen Here?

Writte for Forward Observer Magazine | 15 MAR 2014 | Old Sarge

[Old Sarge]

(The following article I wrote in march of 2014 for the online group at "Forward Observer Magazine". This was obviously before the Ferguson and Baltimore riots, but comments on several FR threads ask the question, "what would things look like if it REALLY took off?" Here is my reply....)

Greetings, Folks:

In my first of a two-part article The London Riots of 2001, A Prepper's Perspective, we examined the event of the mass rioting and looting that spread across Britain in August of 2011. Reader feedback, as well as offline conversations about the article, had one common thread of thought and one question: “Can It Happen In America?”

The simple and most direct answer is, absolutely – and it’s not a question of “can”, but actually three questions:

* “when’,
* “how fast”, and
* “what will it look like”?

To understand this, we need to examine how swiftly and how easily chaos will spread, and possible reactions to same. In the London Riots, we saw how looters and arsonists, aided by mass transit and by instant communications and social networks, were able to seemingly be everywhere at once, and thwarted the efforts of government to maintain calm and quell the uprisings. We also recently saw, in the case of the Boston Marathon bombing and its aftermath, the other extreme: the government successfully locked down an entire metropolitan area, and filled the streets with paramilitary forces at frightening speed.

Now, here in America, we have seen rioting and looting not just as a result of a social trigger, such as the case in London. In America, it seems, bad weather can cause chaos as easily as social unrest. The veneer of society can be scraped away by even the slightest cause, revealing the boiling terror beneath.

We have been told by Lord Cameron of Dillington that we are “nine meals away from anarchy”. But we will not have three days of Walmart "just-in-time" inventory to feed the hordes and keep them sated. We will not have three days of normality before the city-dwellers decide that they want what others have.

We will have only HOURS. History teaches us this, as the following timeline shows:

1965 - Los Angeles - the arrest of a young black man in Watts incites a crowd, which spawns a riot (Elapsed time: 60 minutes);

1968 - across America - the death of Martin Luther King touches off rioting in several cities after the media broadcast (Elapsed time: less than 3 hours);

1977 - New York - the grid goes offline at 9:30PM, the looting starts around 11PM (Elapsed time: 90 minutes);

1992 - Miami - Hurricane Andrew's winds haven't even died down before the malls are ransacked;

1992 - Los Angeles - the verdict is announced for the Rodney King Trial, and almost immediately, the city burns (Elapsed time: less than 60 minutes);

2005 - New Orleans - the mayhem started even before the storm made landfall;

2011 - London - a protest over a slain gangbanger turns violent and Greater London descends into bedlam (Elapsed time: 4 hours);

2012 - Long Island, NY - in the wake of Superstorm Sandy, enterprising looters dressed as powerline repairmen sneak past the martial law cordon and pillage, less than 24 hours of the storm;

2013 - California - after the verdict in the Zimmerman Trial, demonstrations "spontaneously" erupt nationwide, but in Oakland and Los Angeles, fires and unrest break out, and the highways are clogged by protestors (Elapsed time: 50 minutes);

You will have hours. Not days, hours.

Now, we have established that riots will transpire in America, for different reasons and causes. With the knowledge that looting and fires will break out, we need to understand the nature of the oncoming threat. An excellent article describing the urban hordes can be read at Survivalblog.com, under the title "A Veteran Policeman's Observations on The Golden Horde". Probably its most eerie excerpt follows:

The bottom rung is occupied by the drug addicts and users. They exist, not live as we understand the word. They have no assets, no goals, no drive. But they do have an almost animal instinct to continue living. They will be armed with anything they can steal or lay hands on. Most will have a knife of razor box cutter, and some sort of cheap pistol, or they will not live to get out of the city.
Since they have no resources or assets, they will be on the edge of starvation and desperation almost within a day of an event. With no fixed residence or place to defend, they will be hitting the road and coming towards us.
They will become violent without any provocation and there will be no negotiating or bargaining with them. They don't want to hear your story or excuses. All they want is what you have. And have no doubts: They will do anything to get what they want. And this does include catering to their most base instincts of rape, murder and mutilation. Letting someone like this even close to you and what you have is flirting with death.

Now, of course, at the risk of raising the ire of the politically-correct among our readers, we need to recognize one salient socio-political fact: the current administration has succeeded in weaponizing one-eighth of the population. The merest hint of their boiling out of the urban kraals has changed the course of national elections, and had gotten inside the decision loop of the recent government shutdown in October of 2013. As author and former Navy SEAL Matt Bracken observed after the EBT card shutdown on 12 OCT 2013:

This was a test of the National EBT Shutdown System. This was only a test.
A test, and a very dangerous warning shot to the GOP to accede to Obama’s demands for an infinite debt limit increase, “or else.”
The “or else” is an EBT system shutdown, and cities on fire from coast to coast.
All blamed on those Evil White Racist Republicans, who wouldn’t give Obama his money, and made little babies go hungry. Damn those evil white racist Republicans! That’s the game plan.

And five days later, the shutdown ended.

With the probability of riots and looting, and the identity of the marauders established, we turn to a potential sequence of events – and how such a crisis will not be wasted, but rather exploited for other objectives. Ask yourself, how do you control a population of sheep? By removing the rams.

A possible sequence of events might run like this:

* The entitlements stop, and the urban kraals begin to burn;

* The mayhem spills out into the immediate suburbs, where most of the sheep live;

* The sheep cry out for .Gov to save them, willing to pay any price for safety;

* Martial law descends upon the cities (JUST the cities), and the mayhem gets clamped down;

* But the fear remains, and .Gov says that, all you have to do to keep your homes and your food, is turn in your neighbors;

* And a reign of terror begins, where all .Gov has to do is round up the "evil white racist teabaggers" who the sheep eagerly turn in, thus doing the regime's work for them.

This is the military principle of Economy Of Force. Why go kicking in doors, when collaborators will gladly turn their neighbors in for a working EBT card and a bottle of Evian? The same principle has been done in totalitarian regimes gone by, and there is nothing new under the sun where this regime is concerned.

We have examined the potential for mass rioting here in America, as it has happened in Britain. We have identified the most likely perpetrators of such violence. We have theorized a potential scenario which would trigger the events, and what follows. It is incumbent upon you, the reader, to act upon what you have learned. This is not a conclusion that has been reached lightly or frivolously. Consider this as a potential intelligence threat assessment.

The lives of those behind you may depend upon it.

[Lazamataz]

Prospecting.

It’s not scavenging, it’s prospecting.

Didn’t you listen to a word Easy Pete told ya, on the Goodsprings bar front porch?

[Norm Lenhart]

Sure I have. We met when you were doing the Chippendales thing at the old folks home last August.

[Norm Lenhart]

Powdergangers got to him first. I scavenged his stuff.

[Kartographer]

ALREADY ON IT POST #45 AND #48 THIS THREAD.

[Lazamataz]

PowderGANGSTERS, you mean. Didn’t you listen to a word Johnson Nash said to you?

[Lazamataz]

ALREADY ON IT POST #45 AND #48 THIS THREAD.

I SEE THAT NOW

[Norm Lenhart]

Gangers, gangsters.... I was preoccupied with finding out if Vault-tec had made any progress with their Lydia model securitron before the war. Actually that reminds me of another Fallout dreived survival tip few people aside from ex military ever consider.

Know your surroundings intimately. Where to hide, how to get there and make sure you have clear paths.

Sometimes discretion is the better part of valor. We all fantasize we are Rambo in a power armor suit but when faced with insurmountable odds, you might wanna scoot. If you CAN’t scoot, know where you can bury yourself temporarily before the ferals bury you.

[PapaBear3625]

Communication. Increased mobility, cellular and social media make flash mobs inevitable, reducing defensive reaction time significantly. At the same time coordination by rioters disseminates intelligence as to LEO responses and locations. Keep in mind that the increased firearms sales weren't confined to conservatives.

The feds should have the list of "Obamaphone" numbers (they have to, they're paying for them).

I would think they have an arrangement with the phone companies, in the vein of "If we give you the word, shut down this list of phones so they cannot send text messages to a list of people, nor can they access the internet". The next level would be "shut down all functionality except for the ability to call 911".

I do not doubt that Obama's DOJ has a list of conservatives (or at least registered Republicans), and could instead do the same to us.

[Covenantor]

No offense, but have you been observing what phones ‘yutes have now days ? They are most certainly are not Obamaphones. And the most likely instigators already have ‘burner’ and stolen phones. Flash mobs originated before smartphones, text messaging worked just fine.

That aside, LEO response would be to shut down all accessible cell towers within the zone plus a buffer ring with or without provider assistance. Fast and absolute within the zone.

As for Fed involvement, I knowing nothing of current protocols as to the when and how of gaining jurisdiction over the urban battle space. (Can I call it that?) Patriot Act gave away the store and Constitution.

[Covenantor]

Forgot the 911 emergency calls during civil unrest. The urban riots of 1968 and follow on events witnessed the rise of 911 calls to lure responders into ambushes and as I recall SOP was to ignore such in full blown events. In today’s political urban environs such may not be the case until a politically critical mass occurs. Such as cellphone videos of the event which are then walked out of the interdicted zone to where they can find usable connections or a media truck with satellite feed capability.

Recall the scene from “ Blackhawk Down” when the helicopters are following the coast to downtown Mogadishu and the young boy runs with his telephone brick. Ridley Scott recognized the game changer.

[laplata]

I am so screwed.

---

You could always move to NYC or Chicago and live on the 40th floor of an apartment building. You’d be way above the carnage on the streets.

[TEXOKIE]

bfl

[TEXOKIE]

bfl

[greeneyes]

Thanks for the ping.

[CodeToad]

BTTT