Well, OK then...
Here is a pic of Kim to make all the bad bad news just go away so you don't have to worry about it.
See no financial problems now... enjoy...
Posted on 02/15/2015 10:11:44 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine
The stock market continues to flirt with new record highs, but the signs that we could be on the precipice of the next major financial crisis continue to mount. A couple of days ago, I discussed the fact that the U.S. dollar is experiencing a tremendous surge in value just like it did in the months prior to the financial crisis of 2008. And previously, I have detailed how the price of oil has collapsed, prices for industrial commodities are tanking and market behavior is becoming extremely choppy. All of these are things that we witnessed just before the last market crash as well. It is also important to note that orders for durable goods are declining and the Baltic Dry Index has dropped to the lowest level on record. So does all of this mean that the stock market is guaranteed to crash in 2015? No, of course not. But what we are looking for are probabilities. We are looking for patterns. There are multiple warning signs that have popped up repeatedly just prior to previous financial crashes, and many of those same warning signs are now appearing once again.
One of these warning signs that I have not discussed previously is the wholesale inventories to sales ratio. When economic activity starts to slow down, inventory tends to get backed up. And that is precisely what is happening right now. In fact, as Wolf Richter recently wrote about, the wholesale inventories to sales ratio has now hit a level that we have not seen since the last recession…
In December, the wholesale inventory/sales ratio reached 1.22, after rising consistently since July last year, when it was 1.17. It is now at the highest – and worst – level since September 2009, as the financial crisis was winding down:
(see graphic at link)
Rising sales gives merchants the optimism to stock more. But because sales are rising in that rosy scenario, the inventory/sales ratio, depicting rising inventories and rising sales, would not suddenly jump. But in the current scenario, sales are not keeping up with inventory growth.
Another sign that I find extremely interesting is the behavior of the yield on 10 year U.S. Treasury notes. As Jeff Clark recently explained, we usually see a spike in the 10 year Treasury yield about the time the market is peaking before a crash…
The 10-year Treasury note yield bottomed on January 30 at 1.65%. Today, it’s at 2%. That’s a 35-basis-point spike – a jump of 21% – in less than two weeks.
And it’s the first sign of an impending stock market crash.
(see graphic at link.)
As I explained last September, the 10-year Treasury note yield has ALWAYS spiked higher prior to an important top in the stock market.
For example, the 10-year yield was just 4.5% in January 1999. One year later, it was 6.75% – a spike of 50%. The dot-com bubble popped two months later.
In 2007, rates bottomed in March at 4.5%. By July, they had risen to 5.5% – a 22% increase. The stock market peaked in September.
Let’s be clear… not every spike in Treasury rates leads to an important top in the stock market. But there has always been a sharp spike in rates a few months before the top.
Once again, just because something has happened in the past does not mean that it will happen in the future.
But the fact that so many red flags are appearing all at once has got to give any rational person reason for concern.
Yes, the Dow gained more than 100 points on Thursday. But on Thursday we also learned that retail sales dropped again in January. Overall, this has been the worst two month drop in retail sales since 2009…
Following last month’s narrative-crushing drop in retail sales, despite all that low interest rate low gas price stimulus, January was more of the same as hopeful expectations for a modest rebound were denied. Falling 0.8% (against a 0.9% drop in Dec), missing expectations of -0.4%, this is the worst back-to-back drop in retail sales since Oct 2009. Retail sales declined in 6 of the 13 categories.
And economic activity is rapidly slowing down on the other side of the planet as well.
For example, Chinese imports and exports both fell dramatically in January…
Chinese imports collapsed 19.9% YoY in January, missing expectations of a modest 3.2% drop by the most since Lehman. This is the biggest YoY drop since May 2009 and worst January since the peak of the financial crisis. Exports tumbled 3.3% YoY (missing expectations of 5.9% surge) for the worst January since 2009. Combined this led to a $60.03 billion trade surplus in January – the largest ever. But apart from these massive imbalances, everything is awesome in the global economy (oh apart from The Baltic Dry at record lows, Iron Ore near record lows, oil prices crashed, and the other engine of the world economy – USA USA USA – imploding).
In light of so much bad economic data, it boggles my mind that stocks have been doing so well.
But this is typical bubble behavior. Financial bubbles tend to be very irrational and they tend to go on a lot longer than most people think they will. When they do finally burst, the consequences are often quite horrifying.
It may not seem like it to most people, but we are right on track for a major financial catastrophe. It is playing out right in front of our eyes in textbook fashion. But it is going to take a little while to unfold.
Unfortunately, most people these days do not have the patience to watch long-term trends develop. Instead, we have been trained by the mainstream media to have the attention spans of toddlers. We bounce from one 48-hour news cycle to the next, eagerly looking forward to the next “scandal” that is going to break.
And when the next financial crash does strike, the mainstream media is going to talk about what a “surprise” it is. But for those that are watching the long-term trends, it is not going to be a surprise at all. We will have seen it coming a mile away.
The Printing Press is running along full steam at a faster pace than at any time before - that is the money you see flowing into the markets to prop up valuations.
Its been tried before. Unfortunately this has yet to work in any modern monetary system to date. I hear claims they can be successful this time because of the massive computing power the financial markets have at their disposal. Maybe so but with all those automated trading systems in place we are just another "Flash Crash" away from upsetting the apple cart once again.
I simply disagree with the conventional narrative about the so-called financial crisis of 2008, and I have heard it from statist Democrats as well as conservative “personalities” on Fox News. In the end, neither group understands what happened and so they trust the explanation of a handful of bankers with slightly greater knowledge.
Well, OK then...
Here is a pic of Kim to make all the bad bad news just go away so you don't have to worry about it.
See no financial problems now... enjoy...
for whoever has the hair removal franchise the Kardashians use.
My understanding does not avoid bad news. Quite the opposite. You’re the one searching for images of Kim Kardashian and videos of Paul Kanjorski’s to make your “point”, not me. It’s as if you wanted to demonstrate culinary excellence by taking me to Applebee’s.
I agree with this statement but I do not believe the Fed or other agencies of the government have any legitimate power to keep it from happening.
Failure is it own cure.
No you are confused. There is no question “if” there was a 550 billion dollar electronic run on the banks or if they fervor shutdown withdrawals. It actually happened.
You can either accept the fact it happened or you can deny it happened or you can claim it happened but it didn’t mean anything.
Two of those positions are 100% wrong.
I’m leery of buying short. And having lost nearly five percent since inception, this fund ‘bears’ that out. :)
Precisely. Those who continually preach financial gloom and doom are wrong every time, over the long term. People that bet against the American entrepreneurial spirit will lose their money.
Buying or selling isn't the issue if you believe the economy will collapse.
When dollars aren't worth anything does it really matter if you have 100 thousand of them or 200 thousand of them?
The real issue is do you have a plan to deal with such a catastrophic event? Can you grow your own food? Do you have marketable skills that will be valuable in a barter only/scarce money economy?
Hopefully we won't hit that bottom but right now we are in truly uncharted waters for the US economy and remember the dollar is the reserve currency. If the dollar goes, it will take all the economies of the 1st world with it.
The FED has not corrected the issues that caused the 2008 crisis in fact they doubled down on stoopid!
The "Bernanke Put" is still in play and Wall Street is still gambling with taxpayer money. The GDP of the USA is near 17 Trillion Dollars yet the financial risk in the US Derivatives market is well over 600 Trillion.
Let that sink in for a moment.
The Wall Streeters are tsk-tsking the concern that some Americans are starting to show for the unregulated Derivatives Market because Wall Street don't want the party stopped. But the only way the FEDGOV can deal with a Margin call (A.K.A Bailout) on 600 trillion plus will involve some severe deforestation if they wish to make enough physical dollars to cover that bet when it tanks.
How much will a loaf of bread or a gallon of gas cost if the government has to put hundreds of trillions of dollars into the system suddenly?
I am not denying it. I believe that The Lehman counterparties should have been allowed to go under.
In post 26 you wrote: "No, we weren’t. That is some good Goldman spliff you’re smoking."
That was your reply to me when I posted: "It still amazes me how many people on FR (let alone the USA) don't realize that in 2008 we were about 48 hours away from the total collapse of the Dollar."
So now you have me confused are you saying we were or were not within a couple days of a total collapse of the dollar?
Despite the run on these financial institutions, in my view it would not have crashed the dollar against other major currencies if allowed to proceed- quite the opposite. The value of the dollar and dollar cash equivalents would have increased significantly against equities and hard assets.
There is no contradiction in my viewpoint , as you are asserting.
The effect of the liquidation would have been strongly deflationary in the short term. The dollar and dollar cash equivalents are at the top of the value chain. Effective yield spreads against overnight dollar debt would blow out. In other words, the other major currencies, equities, commodities, and hard assets would crash against the dollar. Over a period of days to weeks, the worthy credits would be. Identified and spreads would tighten again... Perhaps with Goldman and Morgan Stanley in receivership (snif)
WHEN the too big to fail guys went down people with accounts at those firms would've started converting to physical cash (just the same way every bank run ends up) the derivatives market would've been a fire sale because the big guys would've needed to sell to cover and the FED would've had to print paper cash 24/7 and still not come close to meeting the demand.
But yeah I am sure that would not been but a small blip on the scope and Europe would've yawned and then everyone would go get ice cream.
We are not talking about the stock market dropping in prices. We are talking about a digital run on the banks. Contrary to popular belief even with bank accounts everyone can't sell/cashout at the same time, well OK they can but when they do its called an economic collapse and you end up with pennies on the dollar if you are lucky and a crushed currency and a world wide depression.
What is really amazing now there is even a move by Alex Jones and company to rewrite the history and claim it really didn't happen it was all just a minor glitch in accounting and that it was all manipulated to win an election.
But he that Kim K looks good in a bikini sooo
Ya know...
So you have gobbled that bankster propaganda right down. I have many friends and contacts in finance/capital markets,and not a single one believes your version of events, which gives such credit and undeserved glory to the state. It’s entirely for the retail schlubs who watch CNBC and worriedly call their brokers when the market goes down...
I was thinking the same thing. Eventually the stopped clock will be right, maybe.
And yes, the Fed would start printing, but they wouldn’t be able to print fast enough to fill the hole.
We are in a worldwide depression, papered over with printed money to generate a simulacrum of prosperity. The stock market has gone up since 2008 (as in the 20th century) because of massive state intervention in the economy. Look at the market indices prior to 1914- over the previous 30 years there was almost no price gain. Such is the nature of the market in a regime of true free enterprise. The stock market has gained as economic liberty has waned.
I see. So then when you flip a coin it comes up both Heads and Tails...
Neat trick.
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