Posted on 09/01/2014 3:06:24 PM PDT by Kartographer
Vespignani has analyzed the likelihood that Ebola will spread to other countries. Using data on millions of air travelers and commuters, as well as mobility patterns based on data from censuses and mobile devices, he has built a model of the world, into which he can introduce Ebola and then run hundreds of thousands of simulations. In general, the chance of further spread beyond West Africa is small, Vespignani says, but the risk grows with the scale of the epidemic.
Ghana, the United Kingdom, and the United States are among the countries most likely to have an introduced case, according to the model.
(Excerpt) Read more at shtfplan.com ...
“Hysteria is not helpful.”
Acquiring information about a disease isn’t a hysterical reaction. The more one knows, the better one can prepare and then not worry. Prepping to avoid the flu or have preps to not catch it if someone in the house has it, is prudent, especially with older age people.
Bring Out Your Dead
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
Jim Noble a voice of reason in the mid of chaos!
I think I speak for the vast majority of those who so many think are being ‘hysterical’ that our concern would be no where near the level it is if the government and medical authorities were taking the actions you describe, but no they are virtually standing at on the sidelines.
At this point you have to wonder if they don’t want a catastrophe to some degree why who knows for power, control, money (funding) who knows, but they are certainly not doing their jobs.
When you look at it most of us are advocating two things one that the government and health services do their job, which is a strict and aggressive quarantine of African countries involved in the outbreak and two that everyone make plans and stock supplies so as to handle a self imposed or ordered quarantine of weeks or months. So what is hysterical about that?
Thanks for the link.
It’s all in the mutation factor. Could go airborn.
They already know it is mutating as on type no gives a false negative on standard testing. You are right if it goes airborne the Four Horseman will soon be riding among us.
Amen to that Marcella. The only way I can deal with worry is to imagine the worst, decide what to do and prepare, then hope for the best.
I understand that some people get crazy by looking at a worst case scenario, but that is what helps me to be calm. It’s just like firedrills etc. to me.
Which airports? The one in the affected countries, or all of them worldwide?
Nothing hysterical about that. Now I have seen a lot of real hysteria on TV when a mob gathers outside a store of some long awaited sale, or rioting after football games, for example.
I think you need to do some reading...read "The Hot Zone". Do a google search and I think the first link or second link will be a downloadable adobe file.
In that book they discuss the ebola outbreaks up to that time and contrast it with AIDS. AIDS is like a cold compared to Ebola.
I read the Hot Zone on a plane what? 20 years ago? I try not to get my information from bad bestsellers.
Look, this is obviously a prepper thread - something I didn’t know when I posted here, OK? Now you all can stop posting to me and go prep or all go talk to each other about prepping and wait for those 100,000 people to be infected with Ebola by December of this year.
No hysteria at all. If, for instance, there was a case in your small town (assuming you live in one),it takes 42 days without report of any new infections to declare an outbreak over. That's two incubation periods.
That's six weeks, minimum you either have your own stuff or are dependent on the people who didn't stop the disease at the borders to feed you. Every time you go out for supplies, you become the next potential case.
Seems prudent to be prepared to sit it out, especially considering the stakes--literally life or death (well, a 60-90% chance of death).
Me thinks that the lady protest too much. She complains about someone referring to a novel when she refers to supermarket tabloids! ;-)
It’s going to take an Ebola epidemic in Africa to get immigration from there to reasonable levels.
Bird flu, like other flu, is seasonal. The reason we are so concerned about bird flu is that influenza viruses both mutate and recombine (that is, trade genes with other flu viruses) quite rapidly--meaning that a virus that is now not contagious could become contagious overnight. With the bird flu--which has a higher death rate than Ebola--such a change would be disastrous.
Ebola, OTOH, is not very contagious and is not likely to become contagious because it infects the blood, not the lungs or throat. It can mutate, but the chance of it become contagious through aerosols is remote. It cannot recombine the way flu does, because all of its genes are on a single genetic molecule. We are not seeing an increase in death rate with Ebola; in fact, this outbreak is less lethal (less than 60%) than some past outbreaks that have had over 90% lethality.
Most viruses, if they become easily contagious, also become less virulent and lethal. While this is true of influenza, we do not know if it is true of Ebola. Highly lethal viruses usually kill their victims before they have a chance to spread, and Ebola is only contagious when symptomatic, reducing its chance to spread.
maybe, maybe not
one of the early symptons is sore throat
You’re so silly. You have a point of view, express it. But don’t get so defensive if people disagree with you.
My boss has a friend who is a hospice nurse. They are now being trained to deal with Ebola patients, just in case.
No one is mad, anyone look through the thread can find your comments about supermarket tabloids.
In the final analyst f I am wrong so be it the most that will happen is I will look foolish and that happens to everyone during their life so I can live with it, but if you are wrong what happens? People die or face a situation unprepared are you prepared to live with that?
Try again:
From the CDC:
These final estimates were that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010 approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm
60.8 million 12,469 deaths you do the math, but that isn’t anywhere near 60%.
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