The Politics of the World Cup and Soccer Enthusiasm

A poll conducted in the days leading up to the United States extra-time defeat against Belgium confirmed the suspicions of various conservative pundits that soccer is by and large a liberal past-time, but the poll also indicated that the sports growth may rest with southern members of the GOP. YouGov looked at the demographics of soccer enthusiasm in the United States, specifically at the breakdown of fans based on politics, region and race, prior to as well as in the midst of Americans quadrennial World Cup love affair. The study found that Democrats are more likely to follow soccer as a favored sport, but that Republicans accounted for a larger share of new enthusiasts as a result of increased attention brought on by the World Cup.

Prior to the World Cup, YouGov concluded, 30 percent of Americans followed soccer closely during the 2014 World

Cup, compared to only 18 percent who consider themselves full-time fans of the sport. 21 percent of Democrats followed the sport prior to the international competition in Brazil, compared to only 13 percent of Republicans, however self-identified members of the party of Abraham Lincoln were more likely to have caught "soccer fever" in recent weeks with 28 percent of the GOP following the World Cup, a net increase of 15 percent, as opposed to the 11 percent increase in Democratic Party enthusiasm. Among the overall United States population the sport has seen an increase of 12 percent in those following soccer closely, with 30 percent of Americans engaged in the tournament, as opposed to the 18 percent who consider themselves regular "futbal" fans. The image charts detail enthusiasm levels for soccer by party identification, the first being those who followed the sports very or somewhat closely regardless of season, the second that of Americans closely following the World Cup action in Brazil and the final detailing the growth in enthusiasm between the two, among voters of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, self-identified independent voters and all Americans.

There are a number of theories floating around the blogosphere as to the differences in enthusiasm across ideology, all with various degrees of both truth and hyperbole. Generally speaking, conservatives tend to have a higher level of enthusiasm for sports than do liberals, which is confirmed in the metric of those who are not following the sport at all. While Democrats favor soccer more than Republicans, liberal voters are also more likely to have absolutely no interest, by a count of 63 percent to 61 in general and 45 percent during the World Cup against the 40 percent of Republicans who don't follow at all. These trends run consistent to those other sports such as football, basketball and baseball although the gaps are even higher. Soccer enthusiasm, for some, is as much a cultural stance as is it an entertainment pursuit. If one looks at the breakdown of fans who cite they follow the sport "very closely" regardless of season, Democrats and Republicans are nearly identical, but the Democratic Party advantage comes with he casual fans. This could be a juxtaposed reaction to the legion of conservative football and NASCAR fans or a reflection of the left-wing's tendency toward a more "Euro-centric" viewpoint and an aversion to American exceptionalism.

Racial, ethnic and wealth come into play as well, which explains the higher overall level of soccer enthusiasm among Democrats. Over the past few decades, the Democratic Party has increasingly reflected a membership that is concentrated in urban areas, consisting primarily of wealthier whites along with working class and poorer minorities. Their reliance on these groups has gained in importance as they have been unable to address the needs of middle class Americans of all stripes. Republicans in this time have made gains among the middle class white population, frustrated by Progressive-liberal policies which have granted more powers to the Federal Government and favored larger corporations over small and independent business. The GOP has also made inroads among middle class and upper income Latino's who consider themselves Americans first and of Hispanic heritage second. While this group embraces soccer with great enthusiasm, the Republican-leaning Latinos are more likely to choose football, baseball or basketball as their sport of choice. Among the primarily Spanish-speaking Hispanic population, they tend to lean heavily toward Democrats and soccer.

During the World Cup or otherwise, Hispanics are by far the most loyal followers of soccer. 36 percent of Latinos identified themselves as regular soccer followers, double that of the overall population, while this figure jumped to 47 percent as World Cup fever took hold (against 30 percent of total population). One surprising aspect of the YouGov poll was that more black Americans consider themselves soccer enthusiasts than those of Caucasian heritage. While 27 percent of white Americans are following the World Cup closely, one-third of blacks say they are following the matches in Brazil. This holds true even without the benefit of the world's most recognized international tournament, as 20 percent of blacks say they follow the game closely, as opposed to the 16 percent of white Americans.

Another relatively surprising insight provided by YouGov's poll was the regional differences in enthusiasm. Although its not entirely surprising that the West had the highest interest level of soccer, with 28 percent avid followers of the sport at any given time and 36 percent during the World Cup, that the South came in second with 21 and 35 percent interest goes somewhat against conventional wisdom. Despite a richer history of soccer participation, particularly among the upper crust populations of New England, the Northeast was only third, with 23 percent following the World Cup closely and 12 percent who follow the sport year-round. The Midwest region has the lowest level of interest in soccer, with only 21 percent closely following the World Cup and eight percent otherwise.

For a sport looking to increase its place among the American athletic hierarchy, the leadership of soccer would be wise to analyze these numbers closely. The initial takeaways would suggest that a concerted effort to increase the sports reach within black inner city neighborhoods and Southern Republican strongholds may bear fruit in its pursuit for larger crowds and better athletes willing to pursue soccer as their sport of choice. Outside of Texas and Florida, the MLS currently has no teams in the southern states, something they may wish to reflect upon given the college football and basketball prowess of both the SEC and ACC conferences based on the South. While the politics and demographics of soccer are not as pronounced as some pundits would believe, they do exist and as World Cup enthusiasm dies down, the decision makers of the sport would be wise to reflect upon this.

10 Reasons why soccer is a liberal sport:

(1) Defense has all the advantages. It is far easier succeed by preventing anything constructive from happening than by actually achieving something yourself. A 2-1 result is considered a high scoring affair, and ninety minutes of futility ending in a 0-0 tie is deemed beautiful by soccer purists.

(2) Government, in the form of the referee, frequently determines the outcome. Because goals are so rare, a frighteningly high percentage of games are decided by a referee’s arbitrary decisions (e.g., the recent Netherlands/Mexico game in the round of 16). 89 minutes of ‘beautiful play’ resulting in a tie score can be flushed away by an erroneously granted penalty kick in the last minute.

(3) No replay. No appeal. With a game so depending on officiating, one would think that every reasonable effort would be made to get calls right. One would be wrong. One official, no instant replays. And just to make sure we get the point of who is in charge, the referee runs continously for 90 minutes so he is at his best when the game is on the line at the end.

(4) The offsides rule. It is obvious that in a sporting contest, it is terribly unfair for one team to conspire to get a player behind the last defender by means of superior speed or strategy. There out to be a rule to give defenders who are slow of foot or slow of wit an equal chance. Oh wait, in soccer there is.

(5) Flopping and the law of unintended consequences. Because the government/referee so often controls the outcome (see #2), players spend great amounts of time and effort perfecting their acting skills to fake falls and various other grievances, in hopes of being declared a victim and awarded a penalty in compensation by the authority.

(6) Penalty kicks. If it’s still tied after 120 minutes, the games is decided by penalty kicks which is another way of saying luck. With 24 foot wide goals and 80 mph kicks, the only way for a goalie to stop one or two out of 5 kicks is by guessing the right way to jump. I guess if the outcome is decided by chance rather than skill, no one needs to feel bad about losing a hard fought match.

(7) Pretentious commentary. When my seven year old daughter emerged from the clump of players with the ball and went on to score a goal, it was a good play. When a grown man emerges from the clump of players to score a goal it is ‘inventive’ or ‘creative’ play. Similarly a bad play is ‘lack of attention to detail’ and boring scoreless play is ‘tactical’.

(8) Injury time. Every other major sport with a time limit has precise methods for time keeping. Keeping with the spirit of arbitrary government power, the referee selects gets more or less absolute discretion to add minutes to the end of the match. Moreover, no one knows until after the deadline expires how much time will be added, a practice remarkably similar to ObamaCare.

(9) More unintended consequences. Speaking of health care, most soccer players are remarkably skilled at faking injuries to stall or disrupt the flow of play. Injury time is supposed to partly compensate for that, but ironically, once the injury time has begun, a player can run 30 or 40 seconds off the clock by writhing on the ground with a fake injury, with no additional time added.

(10) Fatalism. If there were ever a cure for the notion that, at least in athletics, skill and hard work will prevail, it would be a game where the outcome is determined by a referee, or a luck, or faked injuries. No wonder English soccer fans have adopted Monty Python’s “Always look on the bright side of life” as their unofficial anthem.

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