Posted on 03/27/2013 8:51:02 PM PDT by cunning_fish
As I recovered from a rough bout of jetlag over the weekend, I came across an interesting piece by William Wan over at the Washington Post. The article explores China’s study of the collapse of the Soviet Union. The author points out that, “the shadow of the U.S.S.R. still hangs over many parts of Chinese society. What is considered bygone Cold War history by much of the rest of the world, even by many in Russia, lives on in China.” Wan goes on to note “The obsession is fueled by the fear that, with a few wrong steps, China’s Communist Party would face a similar fate.”
Comparisons between the Soviet Union and China are certainly all the rage these days. The Diplomat has covered this subject several times, with an excellent piece by Center for National Interest’s A. Greer Miesels and another by China Power Blogger David Cohen – well worth your time.
While there are many areas scholars can try and draw comparisons between the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) and the CCP—such as political power, economic reform, technological innovation, and foreign affairs— the roll that massive military spending played in the Soviet Union’s collapse is one area that China should study.
Although figures from different sources vary dramatically (with one estimate as high as 40% of the budget and an amazing 15-20% of GDP by the early 1980s), the Soviet Union spent tremendous sums of rubbles on its military. From MIRV’d missiles and advanced nuclear submarines, to the latest jet fighters, Moscow spent lavishly on the most advanced weapon systems to keep pace in a global struggle for dominance — the classic guns or butter example. As America built companies like IBM, Apple and Microsoft the CPSU struggled to stock its shelves with basic necessities.
(Excerpt) Read more at thediplomat.com ...
“Even during the past decade of rapid increases to defense spending, the official defense budget has held steady at roughly 1.3-1.5 percent of GDP—when calculated based on high-end foreign estimates of actual total defense spending during the same period the figure still falls between 2 and 3 percent of GDP.”
For all the talk of new aircraft carriers, advanced missiles, and a blue-water navy, China’s military modernization is nowhere near Soviet levels or anywhere near where it could harm its economy.
The trick now will be for China to keep its defense expenditures in line with the size of its economy. This may be a challenge in the coming years with its territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas, as well as competition with the U.S. becoming more intense, and its need to protect its growing investments in the Middle East and Africa. Keeping up with these newfound challenges will be particularly burdensome should economic growth slow.
Thankfully for Beijing, the likelihood of some sort of global Cold War with the United States developing remains remote, regardless of hyperbolic rhetoric on both sides. Yet, as China’s power grows, so will its interests in other parts of the world, and so will the need to project military power to protect such interests. As Fareed Zakaria wrote about America’s ascent in the late 19th century, “With greater wealth, the country could build a military and diplomatic apparatus capable of fulfilling its aims abroad; but its very aims, its perception of its needs and goals, tended to expand with rising resources. As European statesmen raised under the great-power system understood so clearly, capabilities shape intentions.”
Can China buck this historical trend by striking an equitable balance between its international goals that demand greater defense spending, and domestic challenges such as caring for an aging population and rebalancing the economy from one that relies on exports to one based on domestic consumption?
Why would the author want to give advice to Chinese Communists?
The USSR suffered for its crimes, by collapsing.
China has managed to remain standing.
One of the modern world’s great injustices.
This is always a false premise for a free society. By its nature, a free society will produce guns and butter. That is a hallmark difference between free and command societies. So the author's citing of this bad example is an excellent insight to his thinking.
And his thinking is flawed. Thanks to the weakness of our armed forces and political will, courtesy of enemies within, America now has numerous external enemies. But the debate of who our main enemy is has long been over.
Forget about percentage of GDP dedicated to armed forces. Governments building for conquest always hide those figures. Rather, watch what governments say and do.
By its statements and actions, Red China is America's principle enemy. Its armed forces have the publicly stated goal of taking on and defeating the United States by 2025. And their buildup is on track to do so.
So it's time for the babbling to stop and the restoration of our military to start. Otherwise we'd better learn how to kowtow and speak Mandarin.
But did the Soviets build empty cities, did the Soviets fund state owned banks that lent out billions to state owned enterprises who will never pay the money back (nonperforming loans), did the Soviet leaders and families become billionaires by the score, were there thousands of deaths caused by dangerous working conditions, was there horrible pollution.. er, well yes there was horrible pollution . . . .
All during the Cold War the lefties and the internationalists complained that we had to help the "friendly" Soviets economically lest the hardliners take control, there would be war and it would be our fault.. well we didn't do it but we did it to Red China and Red China's bubble is about to go POP!
There are no models to account for China.
1.3 billion people
The oldest population on Earth
Massive desertification and little arable land
An entire generation of 1 spoiled brat per family and most of them boys.
More ethnic groups than the old Soviet Union.
Etc...
Not to mention their ramshackle command and control structure. I could see them break up into 10 countries or go to war and get their asses kicked by the rest of their Asian neighbors including Russia, if it looks like an opportunity.
They think they have it sussed.
I could see them
Well the Soviet leaders did become billionaires by the score, but other than that, no.
China has many ethnic groups, but the Han Chinese is 85 percent of population, and non Han areas are being developed and settled by Han Chinese just like the US displaced the Indians in the Old West. Most non Han areas are now 50 percent Han with more to come as railroads are being built. Minority revolt is very hard due to numbers and the willingness of Han Chinese to retain the area much like the North was willing to lose men to force the South to return to the US.
Only way Chinese gov can fall is a Han Chinese revolt due to corruption and official abuse. Disparity and mistreatment of rural Chines by their richer urban Chinese. It is ironic the KMT era is being repeated today, except the abusers are now Communist/urban rich against the rural poor. If China suffers from high inflation, rising unemployment on top of official abuse and corruption, then China will have revolt and riots. Once core China falls apart, Tibet, Inner Mongolia and Sanjing may breakaway. Manchus are probably the only ones that will remain with Han Chinese, because when they ruled China for 250+ years, they intermixed with the Chinese to a point where there is very little pure blood Manchus today.
>>Well the Soviet leaders did become billionaires by the score, but other than that, no.<<
C’mon. Soviet standard of luxury was modest to say the least. It was a society of equal misery and higher position hasn’t improved ones lifestyles dramatically.
For example, a factory worker had a 350 ruble salary, a 300 sq ft home, Lada car (Fiat-like), and a Soviet-made TV. At the same time quite a high-ranking official (say a deputy-minister at a state level) could have a 800 ruble salary, a 800 sq ft home, a Volga car (Plymouth-like) and a Phillips TV. He had some privileges factory worker hadn’t but he also had responsibilities a worker hadn’t.
In short, both were dirt-poor in terms of any free market society.
All Stalin’s property could easily fit into a small cardboard box. Khruschev died a poor man in his remote village. Brezhnev’s daughter is a bum living off food stamps in Moscow suburbs now, Gorbachev hasn’t built any fortune out of his position as well.
Russians are taller?
The biggest difference between the USSR and Communist China is that we did not have the Free Trade Communists transferring our US wealth to the Soviets....like they do with Communist China
If you even considered Free Trading with the USSR....you would have been EXECUTED for TREASON. Unfortunately...and even some on here...cheerlead Free Trade With Communist China...even though they are just as big a threat than the Soviets were
We have basically bankrolled our enemy. Mao laughs in hell over our stupidity
China ia STILL a cmmunist country.
Central planning works, except when it doesn’t.
You’re right about Han hegemony, but miss the effects of guanxi. The Han is an ethnicity, but it’s made up of millions of tribes. China could break up into dozens of small states all headed by Han people and all violent enemies of each other. China isn’t a monolithic culture. Shanghaiese aren’t Beijingers.
China is, seemingly, despoiling it's supply of clean, fresh air and water. With 1.3 billion people who need to eat every day, pressure on the agricultural sector grows daily.
The ruling elites are prudently preparing their foreign boltholes for when TSHTF. Try and buy a condo in Vancouver.
Before 1990? Some lived like super-wealthy but prior to 1990 how many accumulated wealth like the Chi-Com billionaires? I was talking about the Cold War years.
Thanks cunning_fish.
Fair enough, but they did after the breakup.
China hasn’t broken up (yet) but the more or less resemble what Gorby wanted. Reforming the commies into some fascist/capitalist craphole.
In Russia the old commies just looted the place and became oligarchs, much like what China is today.
They really don't like each other much from place to place. I've never seen people so racist to people of the same race.
“The USSR suffered for its crimes, by collapsing. China has managed to remain standing. One of the modern world’s great injustices.”
Not entirely unaided by the U.S.
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