In the Electoral College tally, Dick Morris (according to a thread here right now at FR) has it going nearly the exact opposite.
Interesting...
Who keeps up with Dick Morris' predictions? Is he usually accurate or more accurate in his forecasts than Nate Silver?
Just curious...
Romney win: slow train to socialism.
Obama win: fast train to socialism.
Tea Party: the only real stop to socialism, and/or to Romney or Obama.
Who is Nate Silver?
” nytimes.com ...”
That’s all you need to know
Let me help you. You do not really think Obama is going to win more EC votes in 2012 than he did in 2008 when people weren’t informed on what a dud he is, do you?
Nothing is worse than Obama, he hates our military and luvs muzzies.
Michael Barone predicted a strong Romney win. He’s been very accurate in the past.
Of the 9 toss up states he has North Carolina going to Romney and Obama getting Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Florida.
Silver doesn’t have a long enough history declared accurate. He was right in 49 of 50 states in 2008 ... but so were a lot of people. That could just mean he was up the Democrat’s butt in a Democrat year. He was much farther off in 2010 ... I think he shorted the Republicans by about 20% in the House.
Silver is a slave to State polls. If the polls are wrong, so is he.
Morris is kinda all over the place. He leans Republican in his predictions (there’s a reason Hannity has him on so much).
For predictions ... I trust Karl Rove, Krauthammer, Brit Hume and Michael Barone a lot more than either Silver or Morris. All of them were honest enough to predict Obama in 2008.
Rove has predicted 285 Romney. Barone 315 Romney. Krauthammer said Romney by a “narrow” margin. Hume hasn’t predicted.
SnakeDoc
Nate Silver is a clown
Oh, and a note to Nate — that “.0” at the end of the EV projections makes them look soooooo much more scientific.
Could this be why Intrade is currently showing 69.4% Obama, 30.7% Romney?
What’s with decimal EVs?
Even NH separates them as integers.
Thanks. I really didn’t know who Nate Silver was. I should have googled him, but he didn’t even show up on my political radar. So I didn’t bother. Thanks again.
One very nice benefit that will occur should America do the right thing today is that Nate Silver will be put in the place he ought to be put: in the trash bin of reality.
He was supposedly fed internal polls in 2008...which made his “analysis” not so much due to his brains, but his access to information.
There's only one piece of information that Nate Silvah and the puppetmaster-controlled media could already know for a fact, which would make them so sneeringly confident.
They (the media) have been told to call key swing states for Bonzo as soon as the polls close -- if not earlier. They couldn't do that if they weren't assured (wink, wink) that the 'votes' will be there to back up those media calls (wink, wink).
They've known it all along, and it will prove that all those D+whatever "oversamples" in the media polls were in fact quite accurate.
They can make the final numbers be whatever they want. In that case, it's quite gracious that Romney is being allowed to even win North Carolina. I guess Bonzo taking EVERY swing state would look just a tad suspicious.
There's only one piece of information that Nate Silvah and the puppetmaster-controlled media could already know for a fact, which would make them so sneeringly confident.
They (the media) have been told to call key swing states for Bonzo as soon as the polls close -- if not earlier. They couldn't do that if they weren't assured (wink, wink) that the 'votes' will be there to back up those media calls (wink, wink).
They've known it all along, and it will prove that all those D+whatever "oversamples" in the media polls were in fact quite accurate.
They can make the final numbers be whatever they want. In that case, it's quite gracious that Romney is being allowed to even win North Carolina. I guess Bonzo taking EVERY swing state would look just a tad suspicious.
I’ve been seeing a lot of 300s for hussein.
Does Nate Silver have money riding on the election? Wonder if he is putting these negative Romney odds out there, but actually is secretly betting on Romney. He’d make a fortune with such long odds.
If you don’t like the projections of poll aggregators like Sam Wang or Nate Silver, blame the polls, not the aggregators.
In Wang’s case, for example, he has *completely* documented his inputs and methods - and his results mirror the polls, that’s for example why Romney’s chances improved dramatically after the first debate and them declined again afterwards.
Nate Silver’s methods area bit less transparent as he is also including factors such as general economic performance.
All the mainstream aggregators acknowledge that it’s *possible* that there is systematic bias in the state level programming, for example Nate Silver states that it’s exactly this possibility that creates the remaining probability of a Romney EC victory.
___________
The Pundoids across the political spectrum hate the aggregators, because the former are in the business of selling their subjective opinions, and if the aggregators continue to be as accurate as they have been in the last few electrons (which is much more accurate that the average pundit), the pundits will be out of a job (or at least potentially less well paid to do it).
BARF ALERT