Posted on 03/10/2012 10:30:24 AM PST by parksstp
If you have crunched the numbers like I have, it’s very hard to see how Romney is denied the 1,144 delegates in a 3 man race. This is because in a 2-man race in the Southern states, Romney would be shut out of most delegates, whereas now with the Anti-Romney vote split, he is taking 1/3 or better of the delegates. This will in fact get him to 1,144 based on even the most pessimistic scenarios.
Consider the following: Romney has acquired about 407 delegates in the following states (Endorsed Superdelegates are included in the totals)
IA (7), NH(7), SC(2), FL(50), NV(14), MN(6), CO(12), ME(10), AZ(29), MI(16), WA(16), VT(9), VA(43), MA(40), OK(13), AK(8), ID(32), ND(7), GA(21), OH(38), TN(16), WY(11)
It is projected, that Romney will win AT LEAST 492 Delegates in the following states that are considered FAVORABLE to Romney, giving him a total of 899 delegates: UT(40), DC(17), RI(15), NJ(50), PR(22), VI(9), GU(9), NMI(9), AS(9), MD(31), DE(17), CT(25), HI(9), CA(112), NY(74) IL(44)
That leaves him 245 delegates short (and I’m being very generous to the Anti-Romney picking up some CD’s in CA and NY).
However, look at the polls in MS and AL. Under proportional allocation, Romney is pretty certain to pick up at least a 1/3 of the delegates. In a two-man race behind a single Anti-Romney who could get over 50%, Romney would be denied most delegates. But in a three-way race with the vote split, it will allow him to pick-up more delegates in states he normally wouldn’t be competitive.
Watch this play out in the following states. Assume the vote is split and Romney getting his usual 20-25% margin will be able to pick up at least a 1/3 of the delegates in the following states:
AR(10), MO(17), WV(9), AL(16), IN(14), MS(13), MT(12), KY(15), NC(20), LA(13), KS(12), NE(10), SD(11), WI(14), TX(38), PA (28), OR(9), NM(8).
That’s 269 delegates, and puts Romney at 1,168, 24 more than required to clinch the nomination. And with the Anti-Romney’s split, it’s most likely Romney will take more than the 112 delegates in CA and 74 in NY that I allocated to him.
If 1 Anti-Romney was in the race, they would be able to claim over 80% or around 220 delegates Romney would get in a 3-way race, keeping Romney under 1,000 delegates.
Do the math. Show me where I miscalculated. AL and MS are keys to what is going to happen in a 3 man race. Romney doesn’t have to win them, he just needs to get his 20-25% and delegate allocation will reward him with 1/3 of the state delegates. This will go on in just about every other favorable Anti-Romney state.
If the Anti-Romney’s don’t combine, Romney wins the nomination. It’s that simple. The delegate math proves it.
I would vote for Santorum if he had actual experience running some organization in executive capacity. Newt was House Speaker which involves managing the House activities of 435 representatives. Recall Obama had only legislative experience before running for president also. On another issue, Santorum will be attacked 24-7 as too extreme on social issues by MSM. It is not true, buy perception is everything in politics.
But the over-riding issue for me personally is who do I want to see in the 3 debates between Obama and his opponent. My unequivocal answer is Newt.
Thanks for the ping!
I’m not saying Santorum is the most shovel-ready guy to be president. He is just the one that I feel is the most honest and sincere and will do his best to dismantle government. We need to seriously dismantle government. As president he won’t have to be a ‘team player.’
The debates will come and go, and there will be rules of ‘no cheering’ to mute Newt. But Newt is not showing enough strength to ever get to those debates. Newt has to win the south or he is finished.
I’ve lived in Georgia. I like Newt, but I don’t know if he can focus on one thing long enough. That was his problem when he was Speaker. He is like the college professor
( which he was ) who dazzles his students. Newt, as president, would be great in educating a nation that needs educating.
I love to hear Newt speak too. I just want more there there. I fear that Newt will want to be ‘remembered’ and “liked” and will turn out to be like Nixon who appeased the progressives with EPA and OSHA, etc.
Newt resonates when he vitiates the press and takes on the PC crap. But Santorum speaks to me about freedom and liberty, and, as a veteran and naturalized citizen, that speaks loudest of all. Problem is that we will never get that conservative candidate as long as Newt and Rick split that vote.
I wish Newt well, but I don’t think he has found a message yet other than his recent populist tone. That’s an unfortunate sign of desperation. Best to you and thanks for your considered response.
The public - even the supposedly more aware conservative public - simply isn’t ready to hear these things yet. It’s much more comforting to simply log in to FR every day and expend a lot of time and verbiage pretending that your vote still makes a difference.
It sure looks that way from here.
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For the time will come when they will not endure sound doctrine; but after their own lusts shall they heap to themselves teachers, having itching ears;
2 Timothy 4:4
And they shall turn away their ears from the truth, and shall be turned unto fables.
Matthew 13:15
For this people's heart is waxed gross, and their ears are dull of hearing, and their eyes they have closed; lest at any time they should see with their eyes and hear with their ears, and should understand with their heart, and should be converted, and I should heal them.
Mark 8:18
Having eyes, see ye not? and having ears, hear ye not? and do ye not remember?
Acts 7:57
Then they cried out with a loud voice, and stopped their ears, and ran upon him with one accord,
Romans 11:8
(According as it is written, God hath given them the spirit of slumber, eyes that they should not see, and ears that they should not hear;) unto this day.
1 Peter 3:12 For the eyes of the Lord are over the righteous, and his ears are open unto their prayers: but the face of the Lord is against them that do evil.
Yet again, The Lord God Almighty seems to have set up reality such that those WHO SEEK HIS FACE, WHO SEEK HIM AS WORTHY THEIR LOVE . . . are most likely to discern the times and redeem the time.
Others, more addicted to their comfort zones and fantasies whistle by the grave yard pretending there's nothing dead, deadly and stinking around.
They WILL be given another opportunity to wakeup. Perhaps just before the blade hits their neck. Or before they receive the Mark of The Beast rationalizing that it's just to get food for their children.
May God have mercy on such willfully blind stupidity.
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