Posted on 02/09/2012 8:16:10 PM PST by parksstp
If you are a Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum supporter, be concerned, be very concerned about the prospects of a brokered convention.
While it’s still too early to see where the delegate math will fall once all the voting concludes in June, some things are beginning to take form.
For one, the Gingrich team has finally come to the realization that they need Rick Santorum to stay in the race after all. This is because they are NOT confident that were Santorum to drop out, that Gingrich would receive an absolute majority of Santorum’s earned soft delegates. Hence, you see the truce that has appeared to form between the two this week.
Likewise, Santorum’s staff has come to terms that they may need Newt to hold off Romney in states such as OH and IN, Midwest states that would favor Santorum IF he were on the ballot fully statewide.
When one runs through the delegate math, it becomes apparent that Romney, based on the larger more moderate blue states with a winner-take-all format, along with proportional selection in other states, will be very close to 1,000 delegates come convention time. Likewise, Santorum and Gingrich, if they both remain in the race, could have anywhere from 900-1100 delegates between the two combined.
That final number, and the subject of the brokered convention trepidation, is dependent on what Ron Paul draws in. Estimates are he could have anywhere from 100-200 delegates, enough to shift a tight race between Romney and the Anti-Romney(s).
The Paul number is VERY concerning, because it could very well be a deciding factor at the convention. But, short of putting Paul at the top of the ticket, what else could drive his lunatic, fringe, and psychologically challenged supporters to support another candidate?
Mitt Romney knows the answer to this question, and from what I can tell, so does Newt Gingrich. The problem for Gingrich is that he has already made it known that Paul is no conservative, or a Republican for that matter, while Paul has equally returned fire and attacked both Gingrich and Santorum, while virtually never laying a hand on Romney. There’s a reason for that.
You see, Paul is Romney’s Plan B in a brokered convention. But it’s not Ron that will make it to the final ticket…it is Rand that Romney will select as his Vice-Presidential running mate. Rand, while he is a tea party favorite, holds many of his father’s lunatic fringe foreign policy, but unlike Ron, Rand sticks mostly to the fiscal issues which are very conservative for the most part and puts him at less odds than his father. Nevertheless, Rand was one of the first people to go after Gingrich when Newt began surging and attacking Ron. Rand is also no fan of Rick Santorum. A few weeks ago, Gingrich caught on to what was going on and attempted to shift a less hostile message towards Ron Paul. But it is probably too little, too late.
Sarah Palin has picked up this issue as well. For a lot of weeks, she’s been on TV saying not to discount or ignore the Ron Paul folks. A lot of us (I for one) wondered why she kept singing Ron Paul’s praises so much knowing the guy is an anarchist with anti-semitic lunatics following him for the most part. But I believe she brought this up as a warning to not just Newt, but all the GOP contenders. She saw Romney take the neutral approach towards Ron and understood it even before we did.
Picture this. After the first round of voting at the convention, we get something like Romney 1,032, Gingrich 607, Santorum 446, and Paul 202 delegates, respectively. Santorum and Gingrich combined have more delegates than Romney, but still not enough for one of them to make a deal with the other to get to 1,144.
So Romney goes to Ron and says “Look, I’ll place Rand on the ticket if your delegates will support me”. Ron agrees, then goes out and gives a passionate speech to his supporters saying that if “anybody believes in the constitution and the cause of liberty even more than him, it’s Rand, and that Rand’s selection would be far beyond anything they had hoped to accomplish”. The Paulunatics would go nuts and view a symbolic passing of the torch from Ron to Rand, then pledge to support Romney on the next vote, giving Romney a delegate majority.
If it comes to this and Romney has to do it to secure the nomination, he absolutely won’t hesitate picking Rand. How this ticket fares in the fall wouldn’t be the issue, it’s all about Romney securing the nomination.
Due to the tensions between Gingrich/Santorum and Paul, it’s highly unlikely they’d be able to make the same deal. I’m sure Gingrich is aware of the situation and that’s why you’ve seen him pivot on how he deals with Paul, but the damage has already been done. I don’t believe Rand would entertain any offers from Newt or Santorum. The only one he would listen to would be Romney. Romney knows this. Ron Paul knows this. Newt Gingrich knows this. And, even Sarah Palin knows this.
This is why in order for the brokered convention to go to a conservative, it’s paramount that Gingrich/Santorum’s combined delegate count exceed 1,144. Something along the lines of Romney 1,005, Newt 650, Santorum 496, and Paul 136 delegates or better. They still have to be careful though and avoid too-much head-butting because any defectors could swing the nomination to Romney. In this case there are a few options:
First option, Gingrich/Santorum form a ticket and decide the order based on who had the most delegates going into the convention. Seems fair, logical, and would make sense. OR
Gingrich/Santorum at an impasse get together and come to a consensus on a third person that the vast majority of both men’s delegates could support. This would entail Gingrich making some kind of passionate speech on behalf of someone else. While this is possible, it’s unlikely, because after going through 6 months of grueling primary media anal-exams, both would be hesitant to let an outsider just waltz in to the nomination. OR
One of the men drops out from active competition and endorses the other without seeking to fill the VP spot on the ticket under the agreement that an acceptable conservative candidate to both men would be selected for the VP slot.
Gingrich will need to be very careful here, as polls indicate that while Santorum gets a decisive majority of Gingrich’s support, Santorum’s supporters, particularly female supporters, split closer to even between Gingrich and Romney, and that is a bad thing if they defect to support Romney on a future roll call/ballot.
Some might call my theory unlikely. Under normal circumstances, I'd probably agree, but I really think this could all play out. Romney wants this bad and he'll do whatever it takes to get the nomination.
So Newt supporters and Santorum supporters, it's your call. If you think you're guy can get to 1,144 on their own, then keep advocating for the other to get out. You've got more confidence than the two candidates because I think Gingrich's people did the math, let Santorum know about it this past Monday and realized they aren't just fighting Romney now, but to also keep Paul from being a kingmaker.
Newt Gingrich could NEVER be elected president. His national negatives are too high and are etched in stone, decades in the making and decades in existence. The guy can’t win. And that matters more than how the delegate count goes.
You might be right, but as it stands right now, Paul isn’t having the success he or anyone else thought he would. I would be surprised if he can win enough delegates to be a factor anymore. MN was supposed to be a big Paul showing and it was a dud.
Excellent work.
It is just unbelievable a) that "winner take all" is allowed AT ALL, and b) That "winner" can be defined as as little as 30%.
I read your analysis with horror, parksstp. WHY? Because you could very well be right about this.
Well, let me explain my “horror”. I hadn’t thought of the Rand Paul connection. And would the voting public see through Romney’s ruse and manipulation? No.
I’ve felt for a while that our only hope to defeat Mittens is for Santorum and Newt to form an alliance.
Do you think it scared Gingrich that Ron Paul beat him in Minnesota? So far, Santorum has managed to come ahead of Ron Paul in all the contests, I think, except New Hampshire where Paul beat both Gingrich and Santorum.
It’s worth noting that Paul and Romney also just happen to like each other on a personal level. Whereas Paul seems to detests Rick and Newt.
It’s not exactly unreasonable to assume that Ron Paul would toss in with Romney in exchange for treasury sec or Fed position. Just a thought.
“I would be surprised if he can win enough delegates to be a factor anymore. “
Let’s keep it that way, and expose Ron Paul:
“Ron Paul has intimated, on more than one occasion, that the United States is to blame for the 9/11 massacre. He claims al-Qaeda slaughtered 3,000 U.S. civilians because America is “bombing them,” because we have military bases in the sacred sand pit and because we support Israel over the dear Palestinians. Wonder who he blames for the Muslin conquest of Constantinople in 1453? The CIA wasn’t around then, was it? Or for the Christmas bombings of Nigerian churches?”
Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/12/to_get_ron_paul_you.html#ixzz1jzWDMNKV
And Ron Paul’s NO on the following bill (at link), could have caused countless frivolous law suits against gun manufacturers and possibly drive them out of our country:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2831873/posts
Plus, Ron Paul is not so pro-life either:
“Voted NO on restricting interstate transport of minors to get abortions. (Apr 2005)
Voted NO on making it a crime to harm a fetus during another crime. (Feb 2004)
Rated 56% by the NRLC, indicating a mixed record on abortion. (Dec 2006)”
snip http://www.issues2000.org/Ron_Paul.htm#Abortion
Mr. Romneycare is not going to pick a hardcore fiscal conservative as his VP. Romney is a Keynesian through and through.
He’ll probably balance the ticket, not by picking a conservative but another RINO. Maybe a female governor or even Condi Rice.
I wouldn't mind Paul as Sec Treas. or Fed position- and he could get that same offer from Newt/Rick, possibly.
Aren’t there something like 150 ex officio delegates too that would overwhelmingly go for Romney?
It is quite possible, indeed. Newt has made a few gestures towards Paul now and then in regards to to the fed. Rick, not so much.
The problem would be that if each camp makes the same offer, he defaults to willard out of animosity towards the other 2. He is on record saying he doesn’t think the other 2 are “of presidential stature” (i think that was his phrase).
“I wouldn’t mind Paul as Sec Treas. or Fed position-”
I would. I don’t want truther pro-Achmedinijad nutcases in the government.
Excellent analysis.
However, the one thing you will need to factor in, is the GOP E disdain for Paul. There is no way they will accept an unknown like Rand Paul or a ForPol outlier like Ron Paul on the ticket.
Santorum is on a run, but has to show Southern strength now to win the Delegate count. If he does it is his nomination to lose...but most likely at a brokered Convention.
Either Santorum or Gingrich will need to persuade Ron Paul Delegates that they will get more from Santorum/Gingrich than from Romney. I think that meas a Ron Paul Cabinet position or Special Advisor to the President on Treasury and Fed issues and a Rand Paul highlighted Speech at the Convention.
A Santorum problem here...if he wins the Delegate count over Gingrich the Paul/Santorum tiff could make bringing in Paul, prickly. Santrorum would need Gingrich in a big way to massage Paul.
“It’s worth noting that Paul and Romney also just happen to like each other on a personal level. Whereas Paul seems to detests Rick and Newt.”
I can’t imagine why.
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