Some might call my theory unlikely. Under normal circumstances, I'd probably agree, but I really think this could all play out. Romney wants this bad and he'll do whatever it takes to get the nomination.
So Newt supporters and Santorum supporters, it's your call. If you think you're guy can get to 1,144 on their own, then keep advocating for the other to get out. You've got more confidence than the two candidates because I think Gingrich's people did the math, let Santorum know about it this past Monday and realized they aren't just fighting Romney now, but to also keep Paul from being a kingmaker.
Newt Gingrich could NEVER be elected president. His national negatives are too high and are etched in stone, decades in the making and decades in existence. The guy can’t win. And that matters more than how the delegate count goes.
You might be right, but as it stands right now, Paul isn’t having the success he or anyone else thought he would. I would be surprised if he can win enough delegates to be a factor anymore. MN was supposed to be a big Paul showing and it was a dud.
Excellent work.
It is just unbelievable a) that "winner take all" is allowed AT ALL, and b) That "winner" can be defined as as little as 30%.
I read your analysis with horror, parksstp. WHY? Because you could very well be right about this.
Do you think it scared Gingrich that Ron Paul beat him in Minnesota? So far, Santorum has managed to come ahead of Ron Paul in all the contests, I think, except New Hampshire where Paul beat both Gingrich and Santorum.
It’s worth noting that Paul and Romney also just happen to like each other on a personal level. Whereas Paul seems to detests Rick and Newt.
It’s not exactly unreasonable to assume that Ron Paul would toss in with Romney in exchange for treasury sec or Fed position. Just a thought.
Mr. Romneycare is not going to pick a hardcore fiscal conservative as his VP. Romney is a Keynesian through and through.
He’ll probably balance the ticket, not by picking a conservative but another RINO. Maybe a female governor or even Condi Rice.
Aren’t there something like 150 ex officio delegates too that would overwhelmingly go for Romney?
Excellent analysis.
However, the one thing you will need to factor in, is the GOP E disdain for Paul. There is no way they will accept an unknown like Rand Paul or a ForPol outlier like Ron Paul on the ticket.
Santorum is on a run, but has to show Southern strength now to win the Delegate count. If he does it is his nomination to lose...but most likely at a brokered Convention.
Either Santorum or Gingrich will need to persuade Ron Paul Delegates that they will get more from Santorum/Gingrich than from Romney. I think that meas a Ron Paul Cabinet position or Special Advisor to the President on Treasury and Fed issues and a Rand Paul highlighted Speech at the Convention.
A Santorum problem here...if he wins the Delegate count over Gingrich the Paul/Santorum tiff could make bringing in Paul, prickly. Santrorum would need Gingrich in a big way to massage Paul.