Posted on 12/30/2011 1:36:24 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Evangelicals are in a civil war in Iowa. If they could unite behind a candidate, they could defeat Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in the Iowa caucuses, but they cant. Part of the problem is that three candidates are running for evangelical support but Iowa simply isnt big enough for the three of them. Theyre splitting the vote. Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Santorum are all making a play for the social conservatives they need to propel them onward. In 2008, sixty percent of the participants in the Iowa caucuses were evangelical.
Eight days ago Rick Santorum won the personal endorsements of two evangelical leadersBob Vander Plaats, CEO of the Family Leader, and Chuck Hurley, President of the Iowa Family Policy Center. The endorsements may have been just enough to push Santorum up in the pollsat Bachmanns expense. Vander Plaats asked Bachmann to drop out and endorse one of the social conservatives.
The Bachmann team is simply imploding with the defection of a top aide to the Ron Paul camp. She herself has said that it would take nothing less than a miracle to win. When you have to keep insisting that you arent dropping outit may be time to drop out. Look to Bachmann to exit stage left after Iowa. The question becomes who will she endorse.
Three new pollstodays NBC/Marist poll, yesterdays Rasmussen poll, CNN/Time/ORIC pollshow Santorum moving into third place. This is good new for Santorum. Conservative Republican candidates tend to out-perform in Iowa while moderate Republican candidates tend to under-perform. If this holds, Santorum is effectively in a three-way tie with Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. He is the only one of the candidates to visit all ninety-nine of Iowa counties.
Unlike Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansa,s to whom he is frequently compared, Santorum is a northeasterner, a Pennsylvanian. His appeal may be limited beyond working-class Catholics and Midwestern evangelicals. Hes at 2.7% in South Carolina. Moreover, even if Santorum were to win Iowaa big ifhe has essentially no money and no organization in any other state.
Expect to see Rick Perry start a media blitz against Rick Santorum, which, indeed, he has already begun, releasing a radio ad. If Bachmann drops out, Santorum is all that stands between Perry and winning evangelical voters. Rick Santorum spent sixteen years in office, after all, and that leaves a paper trail.
Despite his social conservative bona fides, Santorum was anything but a fiscal conservative, as Erick Erickson points out over at Red State.
* He supported steel tariffs in Pennsylvania
.
* He supported No Child Left Behind.
* He supported the prescription drug benefit.
* He supported the Bridge to Nowhere. In fact, according to Club for Growth, Santorum had the audacity to vote to continue funding the Bridge to Nowhere rather than send the money to rebuild New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.
Those kind of attack ads write themselves, and you can be sure that Barack Obama will rest at nothing to mention Santorums support for the Bridge to Nowhere over the blacks who suffered in Katrina.
Santorum stands ready to defend those earmarks, but calls his voting in favor of a new drug entitlement a mistake. Santorum was crushed in his re-election bid by eighteen points in 2006.
If they truly thought Newt for example would get that done; then they would overlook his flaws for the greater good he could bring. Saving the country is the most important goal.
I don't see people voting for a Santorum or Bachmann just to make statement
Thanks for posting those articles because Romney, and Ron Paul, are the real enemies, as far as the primaries go.
Also, if Romney ever got the nomination (which I don’t think will happen, but it could), it will risk a 3rd party which is why I started this thread:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2795881/posts
Just a guess, but I don’t think Ron Paul would run 3rd party, because he probably wouldn’t want to hurt Rand Paul. However, someone else might, like Donald Trump.
Happy New Year!
I don’t think Ron Paul would have ONE second’s doubt about doing a third party run — he doesn’t see himself as a party man (nor does his son Rand). To them, parties are the necessary path they need to position themselves. In my opinion, Donald Trump is an ad man for the Trump brand and will NEVER run for elective office.
Happy New Year!
Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Santorum are all making a play for the social conservatives... Eight days ago Rick Santorum won the personal endorsements of two evangelical leaders -- Bob Vander Plaats, CEO of the Family Leader, and Chuck Hurley, President of the Iowa Family Policy Center. The endorsements may have been just enough to push Santorum up in the polls -- at Bachmann's expense. Vander Plaats asked Bachmann to drop out and endorse one of the social conservatives.She's now angling for the VP nomination.
The Bachmann team is simply imploding with the defection of a top aide to the Ron Paul camp... Three new polls -- today's NBC/Marist poll, yesterday's Rasmussen poll, CNN/Time/ORIC poll -- show Santorum... in a three-way tie with Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.Ron Paul's supposed polling numbers are agitprop -- he's the candidate favored by the partisan media shills -- iow, leftists who masquerade as journalists -- because they know he's not viable as a candidate, and want to push his viability as a way of tarring the entire Republican field, the entire Republican Party, ad self-identifying Republicans in general.
Despite his social conservative bona fides, Santorum was anything but a fiscal conservative, as Erick Erickson points out over at Red State.Erick Erickson is shilling for Perry:
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