Of the 'Santorum Surge' (and Gingrich Slide) in Iowa...

Reaganite Republican ^ | December 30, 2011 | Reaganite Republican

[Reaganite Republican]

Some on the right have been pumping Rick Santorum relentlessly in the wake of Herman Cain's withdrawal from the GOP primary race. Now lo-and-behold, such new media bloggers can share much of the credit for the Pennsylvania Republican's unlikely rise in the Iowa polls over this last week, particularly those who got behind him early and/or put boots on the ground.

Sure do love his platform... as I do Bachmann's. But the problem is that this 'Santorum surge' is coming purely at Newt's expense- and a direct result of underhanded scumbag Mitt Romney and his ma$$ive war chest, training the heavy guns on Gingrich 24/7 in Iowa. Now it's rumored that Michele Bachmann's surprisingly vicious attacks upon Newt -while largely laying off Romney- means she's angling for a VP slot.

Seems to be going to evil plan for Mittens, with Newt taken down a few pegs by a fullisade of harsh, negative ads, suddenly he's out front in 'conservative' Iowa... with the only worse candidate than him -Ron Paul- right up top there with him... great!

This is precisely why I switched my support from Bachmann to Newt... she and Santorum lack the requisite skill set/political stature to beat Romney and Obama and then run the country, and to me backing such candidates at this point will only hand the nomination to Romney...  maybe the WH back to Obama, too. The 'anybody could beat Obama' argument is pure fantasy, the Dems still enjoy many advantages in the areas of organization and lack of scruples... and there's a large block of barnacles that will vote 'D' no matter what.

We are to pick a race horse here, that's a HUGE part of this- 

I don't think one can afford to be too fickle about the color, esp if you are advocating that we bet the fate of the USA on a lame, uncharismatic candidate like Santorum that got whipped by 20 lengths last time he hit the track... just because he ticks all the boxes.

Sure, I wish there was a bit more conservative candidate who could beat Obama and was qualified to be president... but there isn't, Newt Gingrich is simply as good as it gets for the GOP this round. He's still up 2.4% nationally, and can be expected to sweep the south from SC-on... riding that string of victories on to the nomination, imo.

You could do a lot worse, my fellow conservatives...

Newt in the Wall St Journal:  

'Reagan had the recipe for success, let's follow it'

Ronald Reagan's economic guru Art Laffer has endorsed Newt,  as well... calling him an  'amazing' man with a pure "Reagan-Kemp" economic plan.

He went on to say that none of the other GOP candidates can hold a candle to  Gingrich's record of 'getting things done in Washington' :

Video/more at Reaganite Republican

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[Darkwolf377]

He's still up 2.4% nationally

I just clicked the link--1.8% nationally.

I don't think Newt can beat Obama. I wish I didn't believe that.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Reaganite Republican.

[Reaganite Republican]

Thank you, SC

If I don’t talk to you have a gr8 New Year

[Lazlo in PA]

I don't think one can afford to be too fickle about the color, esp if you are advocating that we bet the fate of the USA on a lame, uncharismatic candidate like Santorum that got whipped by 20 lengths last time he hit the track... just because he ticks all the boxes.

Weak slam on Santorum. He lost 1 race in a terrible year in a deep blue state. Newt basically got shown the door when he was Speaker from a House revolt. That didn't look good either. I will stay with my principles and back Santorum just because he "ticks off all the boxes" for me.

[I still care]

I was watching Morris on Fox the other night. I know a lot of FReepers don’t like him, and his track record can be spotty, but every so often he hits the nail on the head.

Basically, he said Newt is less electable than Romney but real conservatives have a problem with his morality, and Romney seems more electable but people have problems with him also, and Santorum seems to be one of the few conservative choices left.

But he said Gingrich isn’t out, and looks for him to take SC, and feels then that could give him new momentum for FL.

I remember last time around they hit FL like a pack, and then the day before the primary Crist came out with his arm around McCain. And McCain won FL, to my huge chagrin. So while I always disliked Crist, I really disliked him after that.

[Timber Rattler]

No Newt! People keep trying to promote him based on his record as Speaker 14 years ago, all the while ignoring his backstabbing RINO foolishness since then.

I'll take Santorum any day over Newt, despite how much you howl about it.

Newt Gingrich endorses Dede Scozzafava in NY-23 House race

Gingrich Explains Scozzafava Endorsement, Slams Right-Wing Critics

Memo to Gingrich: Get Lost. Now

Gingrich Backs Obamacare's Individual Mandate Requiring Health Insurance

Gingrich donors dropping like flies

Bill Bennett to Gingrich: You’re Shooting at [Paul Ryan] From Behind! (Testy Radio Interview)

Mark Levin grills Newt Gingrich on his comments about Paul Ryan’s plan

Gingrich Calls GOP Medicare Plan 'Right-Wing Social Engineering' (supports individual mandate)

Gingrich Backs Obamacare's Individual Mandate Requiring Health Insurance (Newt praises Romneycare)

Gingrich Backs Obamacare's Individual Mandate

Gingrich Apologizes to Paul Ryan for 'Right-Wing Social Engineering' Criticism

Gingrich: ‘Strategic Blunder’ for Palin to Mock Obama as ‘Community Organizer’

Palin Accuses Gingrich of Caving to the Media

Newt Gingrich Acknowledges ‘Contradictions’ On His Libya Views, ‘I Was Trying To Follow Obama’

Gingrich: My Ad on Global Warming with Pelosi was a "Debate," I will "Not Apologize"

Kerry and Gingrich Hugging Trees -- and (Almost) Each Other

Newt Gingrich Al Sharpton Education Tour (VIDEO)

Gingrich cashed in supporting subsidies for big business (Ethanol)

Gingrich think tank collected millions from health-care industry ($37 million & MANDATE)

Newt calls for ‘humane’ immigration policy

Gingrich 'prepared to take the heat' with talk of amnesty ("Let's be humane in enforcing the law")

Slapping Romney, DNC stands up for Gingrich immigration stand

On Newt's 'humane' immigration policy (Thomas Sowell)

ENDING THE DISHONESTY: THE WAY FORWARD ON BORDER CONTROL AND PATRIOTIC IMMIGRATION

When Newt Gingrich fought for the moderates

Gingrich’s environmental proposals include altering climate with giant mirrors

[American Constitutionalist]

" I don't think one can afford to be too fickle about the color, esp if you are advocating that we bet the fate of the USA on a lame, uncharismatic candidate like Santorum that got whipped by 20 lengths last time he hit the track... just because he ticks all the boxes. "

As Reagan said " there you go again " .....
This cult of Newt is sickening.... just as sickening as the cult of Romney 4 years ago.


" just because he ticks all the boxes. " ... interpretation: because he lines up to what most conservatives want in a candidate.

The liberals and the MSM will make mince meat of Newt in the general election., he has to many negatives.
On the other side, Newt does not appeal to true pure conservatives.
To many people are caught up in this thing where we have to pick the most charming, the most eloquent speaker as if we are voting for a American Idol president.
Sorry, conservatives who have principles and convictions vote with their conservative convictions and principles... and Newt does not line up with what I believe in, for example, Newt has already compromised and went to the dark side in the global warming hoax.

The Chester Cat smile on Newt says it all, I don't trust him.

I am not going to compromise in what I believe in just so we can have the best debater, or most eloquent speaker.

I don't care what the Newt punks say, when they say that those who don't support Newt are helping Romney, I was supporting Herman Cain before he dropped out, and Newt was not even on the radar at the time.

[BillyBoy]

Sure do love his platform... as I do Bachmann's. But the problem solution is that this 'Santorum surge' is coming purely at Newt's expense.

Newt would be even worse than Romney. We better hope and pray the 'Santorum surge' continues to take votes from Newt, because nominating Newt would be a death wish for the GOP.

[American Constitutionalist]

" I will stay with my principles and back Santorum just because he "ticks off all the boxes" ...

Ticking all the boxes means, lines up with conservative principles, conservative core values.

[American Constitutionalist]

" Santorum is pretty uncharismatic—(although you think Newt is????) but he’s anything but lame."

I guess some Americans are stuck on finding the American Idol presidential candidate, instead of sticking to their conservative core values and conservative principles.

[Utmost Certainty]

Eh, Newt would make mincemeat of Obama 1-1. Under any circumstances where a decisive contrast could be shown between the two men, Obama would be irrefutably exposed as the incompetent pretender president he is.

Further, the only real way Republicans can win in 2012, is by articulating a vision consistent with actual American ideals and values, that inspires people to take seriously what these mean—i.e., we need ‘hope’ and ‘change’, except for real this time. Newt gets that IMO, far more so than any the others.

Above all, if Republicans fail to present an inspiring alternative to how life can be, the electorate will just apathetically tune them out. Languishing under 4 more years of Obama will seem more preferable simply because he’s a known quantity and because the other side wasn’t offering enough compelling difference to justify a shift, so why bother? At which point the war of ideas will be lost for the foreseeable future and the US will fade into a slumber of bureaucratic socialism.

[Darkwolf377]

I don’t see this sudden surge of love for Gingrich.

I think too many people are blinded by the anticipation of two debates where Newt wins. Who thinks that’s going to do anything?

I think the American people have had it with Obama. Yet I don’t know if that even matters. The ducks are already in a row—the racism charges, the media helping Obama run a campaign that ignores the first three years of his administration...

I don’t know. I just don’t see Newt doing it. Too many negatives that can be used against him, and too many people over-confident that because he can spout facts viewers will simply vote for him over hopey changey.

In this wussified society of ours, I don’t see it being as simple as some here do.

[Utmost Certainty]

It’s not about finding an ‘American Idol’ candidate. It’s that Santorum comes off as a weak person—he’s nervous, whiny, insecure, self-congratulating, etc. He may be an upstanding person on moral issues, I don’t know. But he’s not a leader to me, and that’s what actually matters.

[SunkenCiv]

Likewise. And 2013 will be even better.

[nathanbedford]

In a few days beginning with the Iowa caucus we will begin in earnest the process of winnowing away candidates and focusing on the two or three who have a realistic chance of being the nominee.

For example, Michelle Bachmann is almost certainly coming to the end of her run and cannot be expected to be considered a factor in New Hampshire and thereafter. Rick Perry will not do well in Iowa nor will he do well in New Hampshire. His persistence in the race can only be a function of deep pockets. Expect him to be gone after South Caroline.

Ron Paul is in the process of being dismantled as a viable candidate for the bulk of the party which had been aware only of his foreign policy deficiencies as these voters now become aware of his disqualifying views expressed about Jews and blacks in his newsletter. Paul will retain his fanatical followers but the rest of the party will regard Paul as purely marginal, his surge is probably already finished and his support will taper off to its irreducible core of fanatics.

Gingrich's lost 20 points in as many days which demonstrates that he is vulnerable to a negative ad campaign, at least when he has no money with which to conduct an air war on paid media. Free media, of which Gingrich is a master, has simply not been able to stanch the flow of blood. Gingrich will not do well in New Hampshire and he faces a make or break in south Carolina. If he does not have money for South Carolina he is probably finished because it appears that he runs out of supporters before Romney runs out of negative ad money.

Santorum is experiencing a mini surge in Iowa as the next and perhaps last conservative hope. Santorum has an advantage over Rick Perry in that he has not been closely scrutinized before by the bulk of the Republican electorate and he has not been rejected as a klutz. It remains to be seen whether Santorum's apparent absence of baggage will make them less vulnerable to the Romney/establishment attacks which are bound to come if Santorum shows signs in the Iowa caucus vote of threatening Romney's position.

Rodney looks like the sure winner out of Iowa and one can expect that to be coupled with a win in New Hampshire shortly thereafter. Therefore, the leader for the nomination is clearly Romney at this point. There are only two threats to Romney, Gingrich who is fading, and Santorum who might or might not be surging. Although these challengers to Romney have little money and will be hard-pressed to win an air war in South Carolina and especially in Florida.

So one can expect the field to be reduced to three, Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich, and probably in that order, at the end of Iowa and almost certainly after New Hampshire. The last place to stop Romney appears to be in South Carolina.

[nathanbedford]

It seems me there are two schools of Republican thought about how to win national elections: the Ronald Reagan school and the Carl Rove school.

The Carl Rove school structures an election in a way similar to what Obama is doing this cycle, by paring down the electorate to 50% plus one vote in the electoral college. In the process Rove gave Bush (barely) two terms in the White House. The first term, you will recall, was one as a minority candidate because Gore actually exceeded him in the popular vote total.

In the 2004 election, Rove ran on the Iraq war succeeded in nationalizing the election on that basis and increasing Bush's popular vote and electoral vote count. Thereafter, and even beginning in 2004, Rove sacrificed the Republican hold on Congress to his minimalist approach to the campaign. In effect, Bush sacrificed the Congress to maintain the war.

The other approach was demonstrated by Ronald Reagan which is to dominate the game and attract the electorate to a new vision. That is what Obama did in 2008. It was so sweeping that the vast middle of America never looked behind the empty rhetoric of "hope and change" which articulated the so-called vision. But the principle remains, Obama swept all before him with his vision, however bogus.

I believe Gingrich is in the Reagan mold and Romney is in the Karl Rove mold.

[Darkwolf377]

The other approach was demonstrated by Ronald Reagan which is to dominate the game and attract the electorate to a new vision.

I don't know if any Republican has the courage of their spouted-conservative convictions to carry it off. I don't see any of those running--Gingrich included--having the cohesive and COHERENT vision that is needed now. The Republicans running seem to have very ragged, malformed 'conservative' visions that finally are half-baked and thus not what is needed to transform the mess we're in. What is needed is a kind of conservative theory of everything that would indeed transform the mess in Washington. I don't think these candidates have that.

Reagan wasn't a policy wonk but he had the large view that cut through all the pet projects and local-political stumbling blocks these people can't free themselves from. His certainty carried along democrats and republicans and independents, eventually.

I'm not expecting another Reagan. I am expecting intelligent, articulate conservatives who live by their convictions and whose lives embody the values they will bring to the White House.

I don't see anyone like that in this bunch.

Nathanbedford, I hope you had a merry Christmas and have a happy New Year.

[Grunthor]

I’d vote for Gingrich over Obama or Romney. That’s about as nice a thing as I can say about him.

I wouldn’t vote for Romney on a bet.