Posted on 08/27/2011 1:05:29 PM PDT by TomServo
Earlier this month I sold my 11.6-inch MacBook Air (using Samsung Series 5 Chromebook now) and iPhone 4 (switched back to Google Nexus S). I don't miss either Apple product. Not the least bit. In reflecting, I realize that the spell is broken. Without Apple Chairman Steve Jobs driving innovation or inspiring passion -- the oft-called "reality distortion field" -- my Apple enthusiasm is gone. Perhaps it's return to sanity.
I should have connected the dots sooner, but often people don't easily apply even basic math to emotional matters, because the nuances move swiftly on the surface with many slower currents and fast-churning eddies below. The ocean is an excellent analogy. Yesterday, in viewing Nate Mook's slideshow of 20 products introduced by Jobs, and resurfacing emotions about the different launches, I had an epiphany. I could see how much Jobs' passion infected mine -- his ability to inspire about what Apple products offered. I used to joke about the Steve Jobs spell: During one of the product launch speeches, if he was having an off day, people left feeling like: If I buy this thing my life will be better for it. If Jobs was in the zone giving the preso, people left feeling if they didn't buy the new thing their lives would be worse.
Jobs' cast a big spell, but it was more than the pitch -- there are aspirational qualities built into Apple products. Jobs is the rarest of business leaders: He has good taste and the ability to inspire people working with him to put it into high-tech stuff. Related: Design priorities put features that are most useful at the top, packaged such that there is balance among them -- none takes away from overall functionality. Additionally: Simplicity is a defining Apple design characteristic, or was.
As I explained here at BetaNews in February 2005 post "iPod Shuffle: Apple understated": "The company has turned a knack for the understated into a marketing machine that touches virtually every Mac product, including iPod Shuffle...Understated often means uncomplicated. And sometimes that means cutting back consumer choices, as Apple did with iPod Shuffle. Less really can be more...Competitors really need to study what Apple is doing right and how to incorporate a similar approach into their product designs and marketing".
Complication Creep
But on reflection, I now see how much simplicity, one of Apple products' best attributes, is giving way to complication creep. Mac OS X 10.7 Lion and iTunes 9 and 10 are glaring examples of increased complexity, as are iOS 4 (and soon v5), Safari 5.1, iLife `11 and most other Apple software.
Even Apple Store. I wrote in 2005: "Apple retail stores are remarkably understated. The only bright colors are found on marketing material placed throughout the store. Otherwise, the tasteful stores are quite stark, so that the shoppers' eyes are drawn either to the colorful marketing posters and signs or to the products on sale". The stores are no longer as tasteful, and the new iPad product information displays create clutter and complexity.
Still, where Steve Jobs' influence still touched so did simplicity remain, which iPad 2, MacBook Air and Mac App Store imbue. But other recent attempts at simplicity have failed, with Final Cut Pro X example of increased complexity coming from an attempt to make video production simpler. Many of Apple's elite customers complained about the product, and there was even a petition to bring back the old version! Could such a thing really have happened with Steve Jobs hands-on at Apple?
When Passion Fades
Steve Jobs unexpectedly resigned as Apple CEO two days ago, and the Board of Directors immediately chose Tim Cook, then chief operating officer, as replacement. Much of the punditry about the transition is similar: Apple will remain the same Apple under Cook. This is misguided, wishful thinking.
Apple will change under Cook's leadership. Actually Apple already has changed. For about three years now, Jobs' influence on product development and marketing is less than it once was. The Apple faithful will slam me in comments or elsewhere for speaking such blasphemy. But, c`mon. The man is terribly ill -- clearly fighting for his life throughout much of 2009 and 2011.
As I more seriously review the 2.8 years since Jobs' January 2009 medical leave started, it's clear the aforementioned qualities are missing and other less-desirable ones present in Apple products. This reflects the limits of Jobs' involvement in the process -- at least the way he was able to be when in more robust health. There is a vitality gone from Apple's cofounder that many recent Apple products reflect, even as the company reaches its highest pinnacle of success ever. It's a cruel circumstance that a man who has had so much positive influence should be ravaged from the effects of cancer while still in his prime.
Kirk and Spock
Jobs and Cook couldn't be more different leaders. They're complimentary: The inspired visionary looking to bring good taste and understated design to otherwise complex products and the man responsible for getting them to market. Like James T. Kirk and Mr. Spock from "Star Trek". Kirk is the leader, the charismatic one. Spock is the empowering sidekick but not as effective leader. That's how I see Jobs and Cook.
Cook will competently lead Apple, as he has done for the better part of two years. He's honed Apple's supply chain to a science. Apple is a self-propelling machine now. But like Spock, Cook won't have the passion of Kirk. This will affect his ability to hold onto the team core to Jobs, such as product design genius Jony Ive.
Apple won't find feature compromises -- the kind good for keeping them in balance -- as easy in the post-Jobs-CEO world, either. Response to Final Cut Pro X is one example of that. Jobs had a knack for making people believe in his company's products, for clearly calling on real-world passion while making anyone and everyone willing to listen to feel good about Apple stuff. Apple products evoke emotional response, like few others in techdom. They are imbued by Jobs' passion and his ability to inspire others to design greatness or to give someone like Jony Ive freedom to bring true design genius to market.
Apple feels quite different to me now in 2011 than it did in 2008. It's all corporate now. Just dollars and cents on a ledger. What Jobs imbued already is gone, at least for me. I predict it will fade for many technophiles. But not anytime soon for the mass market of buyers, who are more influenced by what their friends and family use than by the aura of Steve Jobs.
His legendary "one more thing" was one last thing long ago.
That is an outright misrepresentation that Apple's silent partners acquiesce to. It is designed in Cupertino and Taiwan, manufactured in ChiCom land. You say Quanta makes certain Apple laptops. Which ones are they? Does Asus make some too?
Go for it, big guy! The industry say the capacity isn't there, but YOU, FromTheSideLines, genius, who knows everything better than everyone else on tech threads, knows YOU can easily do it. Here's what the industry press is saying COUNTER to your "expert knowledge" you use to refute our points:
Lack of metal chassis capacity pushing ultrabook vendors to adopt fiberglass
by Aaron Lee, Taipei; Joseph Tsai, DIGITIMES [Thursday 4 August 2011]
Intel and notebook brand vendors have recently been aggressively searching for new chassis materials as capacity for magnesium-aluminum chassis, which is the most popular choice for ultrabook designs, is mostly fully loaded. Fiberglass chassis has recently appeared as the new top choice among vendors, according to sources from chassis players.
Since ultrabooks are required to only have a thickness of less than 0.8-inch, the chassis will need to be tough in order to sustain pressure and protect internal components and the panel. But as the production of unibody-based magnesium-aluminum chassis requires CNC lathes, capacity is significantly limited.
As the cost of purchasing a CNC lathe is rather expensive, it has created a high threshold for competitors to join. Currently, Taiwan-based Catcher Technology and Foxconn Technology both have more than 10,000 CNC lathes for metal chassis production.
Since the two players are already the suppliers of Apple, ultrabook players will need to compete for the remaining capacity from the two firms, leaving players unable to fully ship enough devices. With RHCM-based fiberglass becoming a new choice, there are already three brand vendors deciding to adopt fiberglass for their ultrabooks.
Taiwan-based fiberglass chassis maker Mitac Precision pointed out that a fiberglass chassis is produced through RHCM process and combined with plastic to allow a toughness and price competitive against magnesium-aluminum chassis. Since each segment of a fiberglass chassis is US$5-10 cheaper than a magnesium-aluminum one, the cost of a fiberglass-based notebook will be US$20 cheaper than magnesium-aluminum models with the end market price to be US$50-100 cheaper, the company noted.
Mitac Precision's fiberglass production yield rate is currently more than 90% with monthly shipments of 4.5 million units. If Intel's progress in ultrabooks goes smoothly, Mitac Precision is expected to benefit from the business opportunity.
As the cost of purchasing a CNC lathe is rather expensive, it has created a high threshold for competitors to join.
It's cost - not lack of available CNC machines - that is the problem. You really think there aren't CNC machines to be had? Hey - plenty to buy, but it's a cost. Is the cost worth it? Well, Samsung just introduced 4 more laptops with fully machined aluminum cases, so they think it is.
It's not what you claimed - lack of available CNC machines. It's expense that's stopping it - not wanting to buy the machines.
You're wrong again, and you proved my point. Thanks so much for that!
You are one of the two persons misrepresenting THINGS on this forum, Dennis, you for claiming knowledge about anything Apple. You've been doing it for years! You make up every thing you say about Apple out of thin air! You've been shot down time after time on your false assertions. We are still waiting for your guaranteed prediction of Apple's immanent financial failure and collapse from TWO YEARS AGO to come true. Remember those? How did Shorting that non-existent Apple debt go for you? Keep dancing. You aren't fooling anyone except yourself.
Aaarrrgh! NO! Read the DAMN Headling, Sidelines! CNC machines have always been expensive. This is just one of DOZENS of articles referencing CAPACITY, not cost! I can show you numerous articles referencing Japanese machine tool companies operating AT capacity making the CNC machines in the early part of 2011 to fill the Chinese orders for the two companies that make Apple's IPads, iPhones, MacBooks and MacBook Airs... Putting a strain on their ability to fill ANY ORDERS AT ALL for other companies, then the earthquake hit!
Making and shipping the machines is just part of the equation, Sidelines, from the time of ordering the machine. You have to put those machines in an assembly line... And that takes money, engineering, permits, probanly bribes, a building, labor investment, and TIME! It took Honhai over a year to get the Apple funded CNC Machines operating . . . and productive . . . at Foxconn's new plant. That's a long time before a customer can take delivery of a machined aluminum laptop!
Relevance?
Since you know so much..... What Apple computers do Quanata and Asus and others make? Match up the product line with the Taiwanese manufacturer. If you can. If you have such inside knowledge of how Apple does things this should be easy
Who runs the Cupertino division that 100% designs (you guys allege with no Taiwanese participation) the Apple motherboards?
That's common knowledge... Johnny Ive... under Tim Cook up to last week, Chief Operating Officer. Look just yesterday a news story came out about a prototype MacBook Pro that surfaced that was bought on Craig's list. It had RED logic boards all labeled as made in Cupertino Apple prototypes (these were from a 2007 MacBook Pro with a G3 antenna system and a SD card and a SIM card that never was produced) that should NEVER have left Apple headquarters. Apple is picking it up from the guy who has it. No where on it are anything other than Apple labels on the logic boards. It has soldered on wires from one board to another.
As to what is manufactured where... that changes according to the needs of the moment.
Read the DAMN article, Sword! I quoted it - there is capacity that can be installed, it’s COST! Good lord, you’re just unwilling to admit your error.
You seriously think there is 100% capacity right now, and that capacity cannot be expanded? Are you that dumb? The article even said so!
Man, give it up - you’re wrong, your own article stated as much - I quoted right from it! Suck it up...
And if you WERE correct - explain how Samsung just launched their new Series 7 laptops - 4 models with machined aluminum cases. That’s a COMPLETE DESTRUCTION of your claim.
You’re 100% wrong, Sword. Suck it up, be a man, admit your error. Wrong, wrong, wrong - the article says so, and Samsung’s own offerings SAY so as well! WRONG!
Good grief, Sidelines. YOU pick one sentence about the cost of CNC machines out of an article on the LACK OF MANUFACTURING CAPACITY, sampled from dozens on the subject, all referencing the cornering of that available capacity by Apple, and YOU think that companies with net worth in the BILLIONS are deterred at buying machines that cost under $100,000 each??? BS!
My point was based on numerous authoritative sources (I've seen at least a dozen articles on the topic), not a mere sentence in a single article.It's how fast can they buy the machines AND build the manufacturing capacity line to get their competing products out on the market! A year or more is the fastest that the capacity could be added and that's simply not responsive enough in a competitive market. That's where the expense is. They are used to going to the CMs and just ordering their products to be made. That CM capacity was booked solid! Just buying a machine and setting one up does not result in production... When there is no place to put the machines!
Other articles in the early part of this summer were reporting that CHINESE companies were buying up all of the capacity of JAPANESE manufacturers ability to make CNC milling machines to expand their assembly lines to meet "Apple's increased demand" for iPads, iPhones, and Notebook computers, and were accounting for 26% of Japan's machine tool output for the second quarter of 2011! I could link you to those articles, but I'm not going to bother, because you'd comb them for minutia about the cost of a shipping crate to argue that's the reason the computer makers aren't using aluminum cases, instead of the real reason given in the article. Those assembly lines using those Japanese CNC machines are just now coming on line to make future Apple products (and perhaps free up capacity for other makers' products); I know of one Foxconn plant that's supposed to turn on in October. I haven't a clue about it's capacity. . . but they built a city around it.
Re: Samsung's new copycat notebooks. Four top end models. Whoop-de-do. Samsung has apparently found some capacity to build a small run, but not in the numbers the other makers were originally talking about. . . it's In the tens of thousands. Apple is making runs in the millions. Their entire line is machined aluminum.
It's possible that the Apple runs may have reached completion on some of the orders and capacity has been freed up, allowing some assembly line time for another maker's orders.
Yes, they are. I've shown you the evidence before, including the patents. I'm not doing it again.
If you can prove to me that Apple manufactures its own prototype logic boards in Cupertino, then I won't badmouth Apple for one year. Can you show me this is their general practice? To then send that logic board to the Taiwanese for mass production in China?
Lets not forget Apple came up with the ultra-advanced engineering to glue memory and SSD to a laptop motherboard.
We know the Chinese come out with a logic board design and it’s among the options for the regulars like Dell and HP to put in the Chinese-designed laptops they order. You will see the same thing in many different laptops.
So, why haven’t we seen another laptop with the MacBook Air’s logic board?
Sword, you’re an idiot. I don’t know what else to say.
The lack of manufacturing capacity is because no one else wants to pay for more capacity. Which is what the article said, which is what I said.
You somehow insist that there can be no more capacity added. That’s clearly wrong.
What can I say - you’re an idiot.
Show me a common motherboard that is used in a Dell and HP laptop. Please. Doesn’t exist.
Now, they MAY use common WIFI and Bluetooth cards as accessories - of course, that’s what happens when you allow options for different WIFI chipsets and options. But the actual motherboard? Good luck...
Dell and HP were just examples. I was going off memory a while ago of about ten different laptop brands being the same Compal laptop. The Dell Latitude X1 was actually a Samsung Q30. An Alienware (Dell) and a Sager are often the exact same laptop, both made by Clevo. It's actually newsworthy when a regular PC company controls the design from beginning to end, such as the Lenovo X300.
Actually, as in the case of the Dell X1, the manufacturer designs and makes the laptop, but has a non-compete with the brand company. That's why it took a while for the Q30 to hit here -- the non-compete had to expire first. We still don't see any such thing happening with any Apple laptops.
In this cut-rate, price is everything market, most companies don't bother to keep the design in-house. Apple always does. What's really funny is that you know Apple designs the very system chips themselves, but somehow Apple doesn't have the expertise to design motherboards? Strange.
I think "wants to" is a big kicker here. Apple has historically been inclined to invest major money in such things. They buy CNC, they buy up most of the world's capacity for at least a year. They buy memory, they secure hundreds of millions of dollars of NAND for the next several years, same for LCDs. Because of this, Apple is not vulnerable to fluctuations in price and availability. The competition, not so inclined, still vulnerable.
But according to previous links in this thread - Apple contracts out some of their design work as well...
What's really funny is that you know Apple designs the very system chips themselves, but somehow Apple doesn't have the expertise to design motherboards? Strange.
How many chips in a Macbook Air were designed by Apple?
Apple has historically been inclined to invest major money in such things. They buy CNC, they buy up most of the world's capacity for at least a year.
Sure, and Samsung decided to do a machined case as well, and had no problem. It's not like companies decide a month before release to do machined cases - there's plenty of lead time and capacity can be added as needed. Trying to insist that more capacity can't be added is, I think we'll agree, insane. It's a matter of whether or not the costs of adding capacity and the production will return in sales.
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