Posted on 06/14/2011 5:57:49 PM PDT by techno
As many of you know Mike Huckabee,on May 14,announced on his Fox weekend TV show he would NOT be running for President in 2012.
That set off a chain of events in the past month culminating today with Chris Matthews, previously a foe of Michele Bachmann, who had previously ridiculed her personally and politically and dumped all over her, to now sing Bachmann's praises for her debate performance last night.
A key revelation over the course of the last month is that both Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin have surged ahead in 5-7 national polls of GOP contenders due primarily to Huckabee bowing out (previous polls pre-Huckabee asking for second choices if Huckabee did not run verify this)and also Donald Trump and Mitch Daniels deciding not to run and thereby producing now a clear separation of 7-10 points between Romney and Palin vs. the rest of the field.
Here are 5 events that have been brought about as a result of this information imho:
1)Mitt Romney has decided to lay low until Labor Day (Piers Morgan interview on CNN). This is called resting on your laurels or in football going into a defensive shell.
2)Mitt Romney has decided to skip the Ames Straw poll and not invest a lot of resources to win Iowa. At the same time recent polls have shown Sarah Palin surging in Iowa as well as the rest of the country. Iowa is a state where 45% of the caucus goers are projected to be VERY CONSERVATIVE and based on the 2008 exit polls of the caucuses 60% self-identified as evangelical Christians. These are the two groups that Romney had the least success with in 2008.
3)Via Rush Limbaugh last Friday: "The media now loves Romney; he's now their guy." Translation: The MSM will no longer be promoting the idea of someone coming out of the GOP establishment bullpen to replace Romney.
4)Sarah Palin has gone dark since her interview with Chris Wallace 9 days ago. Her surge in the polls does give her more latitude and flexibility to adjust her schedule without having to look over her shoulder and to plan the launch of her presidential campaign.
5)The MSM has not only embraced Mitt Romney but as of last night and today gone absolutely "nuts" in their praise of Michele Bachmann, including her arch-nemesis Chris Matthews. In addition Joan Walsh of Salon is now calling on Herman Cain to withdraw from the race. Recent polls show Cain ahead of Bachmann.
Now when you take these 5 events as a whole as a political observer you are left with one conclusion: People are beginning to choose sides. In other words the 2012 GOP presidential nominee will be either Mitt Romney or Sarah Palin with no one else having any chance whatsoever of claiming the brass ring; and thus the next President of the USA will either be the current one, President Obama, Mitt Romney or Sarah Palin. It is what it is.
Now you skeptics and doubting Thomases are sure to ask, "What if Sarah Palin does not run?" Answer: Get ready for the coronation of Mitt Romney.
Without Sarah Palin in the mix, the polls show Romney even creating further separation between himself and the field sometimes as much as 20 points.
Now what does this mean going forward?
If you are Mitt Romney only one person stands in your way to winning the GOP nomination.
If you are Sarah Palin, when you get in all you need to do is to focus on narrowing the gap with Romney in the polls and not have to worry about the rest of the field passing you, at least for the time being.
If you are the mainstream media, you go "all in" with Mitt Romney, lock, stock and barrel because if you don't Sarah Palin may win the nomination.
If you are moderates or centrists who despise Sarah Palin you might decide you no longer have the luxury of supporting other moderate-centrist candidates (eg. Pawlenty, Gingrich, Huntsman) and must throw your support to Romney because the thought of Palin winning the nomination is an abomination to you. And that is despite Romneycare and Mitt's reputation as a flip-flopper.
And if you are Mitt Romney and you realize that for every liberal/moderate GOP primary voter there are approximately 2 conservative voters and that Palin dominates among folks who self-identify as VERY CONSERVATIVE or social conservative, you see the need to sponsor a stalking-horse to bleed away conservative votes from Palin so you can come up the middle in close contests. It also helps that other conservatives are also part of the mix to bleed votes away from Palin.
It just so happens that there is a rumor that Michele Bachmann is a stalking-horse for Mitt Romney and since yesterday the MSM has embraced her as warmly as they now embrace Romney.
So bottom line folks here is how this dynamic will in all likelihood play out over the next 7-9 months:
If you vote for door #1 (Romney) or door #2 (any other conservative but Sarah Palin) Romney will be the GOP nominee. If you are happy or comfortable with that thought, you know who to vote for, but if you have an antipathy to Romney getting the nomination as many freepers I suspect have, you must choose door #3 and vote for Sarah Palin next year. You have no other option
And as for the scenarios that have yet to play out there is one major one not yet decided.
Will conservatives, evangelicals and Tea Party supporters who are opposed to Romney being the GOP nominee coalesce en masse around Sarah Palin or will they decide to become PROXY VOTERS in the end?
That is the $64,000 looming question over the next several months. Will pro-Palin types vote their conservative values and principles and vote for Sarah Palin or will they vote as PROXY VOTERS who have been advised, counseled, or strongly influenced by the GOP establishment, the media, interest groups, prominent RINO's to consider other factors like electability (Palin is damaged goods), appealing to minorities, not being out of step of the new world order and the need to please the media when casting their vote?
The decision made by conservative, evangelicals and Tea Party supporters whether to support Palin en masse or to divvy up their support among other conservatives or Mitt Romney will determine who will win the nomination.
Vote your values-Palin is your nominee; become a PROXY VOTER and vote against your values or against Palin who you like the best and best represents your values and you will assuredly get Romney.
Any guess which direction the media wants to push you.
The #1 goal of the MSM: to create a massive number of PROXY VOTERS by duping unsuspecting GOP primary voters thereby handing the nomination to Romney.
“If you are moderates or centrists who despise Sarah Palin...”
I’m tired of hearing the notion of a lot of Palin haters. I don’t believe it. The media puts that into their discussions of Palin.
Wonder why Palin is surging in Iowa. Are there other states where she’s surging? I wouldn’t be surprised if there were.
I don’t know, they could vote for Barack Hussein Obama or Barry Soetero, or that Steve Dunham guy. They do have choices. LOL
Perhaps I should added the word “elitists” but I did not because there a many pro-choicers or Republicans who favor gay marriage or those who favor gun control who hold Sarah Palin in contempt
I’m sorry if I have offended your sensibilities but polls do show this and that there is NO way they want Palin as the nominee.
And these folks are not dummies. Polls have consistently shown many of these folks are highly educated or high income earners. And they understand vote splitting.
As I mentioned many of these folks given different circumstances in the poll might be compelled to support other candidates like Huntsman or Pawlenty but they now see the lay of the land and realize the simple truth that either Romney or Palin will be the GOP nominee next year. In turn they have made the decision to support Romney to stop Palin. Have you noticed how much Romney has surged in the polls recently and how Pawlenty has plummeted?
Thank you. I don’t have any issues with Sarah Palin and would happily vote for her IF she wins the nomination. I may even end up voting for her in the primary but I won’t accept any anointed candidate. Its that simple.
The people clinging to the dumbass Rollins comment need to get over it and concentrate on loading the field with conservatives. Its the only way we’re going to overcome the RINO brigade which is growing daily.
Last year one of the candidates for my district’s primary race had the backing of both Palin and Romney. I disagreed with Palin but understood her reasons and didn’t use it to connect her to Romney.
I am not averse to supporting Palin IF she gets in the race AND IF she proves to be the only conservative that can deny Mitt the nomination.
I support Cain, but his performance last night was lukewarm. I thought Bachmann did well but it’s not untrue that Mitt did himself no damage.
RON PAUL/s
More evidence of the Palin surge:
http://recovering-liberal.blogspot.com/2011/06/palin-rises-52-across-7-major-polls.html
PALIN RISES 52% ACROSS 7 MAJOR POLLS—THE TRENDING GRAPH MEDIA KEEPS HIDDEN
In 2008, the stalking horse was supposedly Fred Thompson, holding off the voters until McCain could put his campaign back together — in other words, the “candidate” everybody wanted but who hadn’t actually joined the race.
Thompson finally joined in September, just as some people claim Palin is waiting until September.
Thompson was a strong second in polls, just as Palin is a strong second in polls.
Thompson didn’t pan out once he joined the campaign. We ended up with John McCain.
Conservatives also imho have to realize that Palin performs an incredible service for our side. The media hates Sarah so much that they are now promoting Bachmann. So we have the media praising a tea party candidate, that’s great!
That's how McCain sneaked in at the last moment last time. I thought the Rep. party had some rule changes to fix it?
I wish Ron Paul would wise up and realize that he can be a kingmaker but he won’t be king.
Thompson was a strong second in polls, just as Palin is a strong second in polls.
Thompson didn’t pan out once he joined the campaign. We ended up with John McCain.
Hmmm, the analogy is good, except, I think Governor Palin has just a little more energy then Fred Thompson.
The key difference between Thompson and Palin:
Thompson: stalking-horse
Palin: major player
Thompson blocked for Mccain in SC (got 15% of the vote) and allowed McCain to edge Huckabee out although Huck got 43% of the evangelical vote.
This time Bachmann is the stalking-horse and she is blocking for Romney by attempting to bleed conservative votes away from Palin.
Thus the analogy is NOT comparable. Palin is running neck and neck with Romney and she has not declared yet; Thompson was never challenging Rudy for first place either before he declared or after he threw his hat into the ring.
Michele cannot, and will not get the nomination. She cannot raise the money needed to beat Romney, and assuming that she somehow can win the nomination she cannot raise the money needed to be Obama. I don’t know why Freepers won’t flow chart this whole scenario for a few minutes.
Is that true? The way I remember it Hillary and Baraq fought to the bitter end. Indiana has a very late primary and they were both here campaigning and running zillions of commercials.
I don’t think hardly any Dems crossed over in 2008.
Yep.
It is possible that third party will go by the name "GOP" and will be spending all of their hundreds of dollars in donations on their nominee Mitwitt.
.
Anybody can beat Obama. I intend to vote for the person I wish to vote for. You do whatever you want.
We could look at who has high negatives if you want to, eh?
Simple premise:
If Palin does not run, welcome to Romneyland.
If Palin does run, do anyone really believe she will sink in the polls?
Why is the MSM absolutely terrified of Palin. They know the truth.
Omg... When Palin announces this race begins. I would admonish you to wait for that, and then you will realize why Michele had to use a gimmick like making the debate her platform for entering the race. Palin will announce in the midst of thousands, Michele couldn’t muster a platoon. I love Michele, I am just speaking the plain truth.
If you live in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina, you might somehow make a difference with your vote. It will more than likely be over by then, so vote early and often.
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