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Was Moore's Law Inevitable?
The Technium ^ | 7-19-2009 | Kevin Kelly

Posted on 10/24/2010 5:57:29 AM PDT by grey_whiskers

In the early 1950s the same thought occurred to many people at once: things are improving so fast and so regularly, there might be a pattern to the improvements. Maybe we could plot technological progress to date, then extrapolate the curves and see what the future holds. Among the first to do this systemically was the US Air Force. They needed a long-term schedule of what kinds of planes they should be funding, but aerospace was one of the fastest moving frontiers in technology. Obviously they would build the fastest planes possible, but since it took decades to design, approve, and then deliver a new type of plane, the generals thought it prudent to glimpse what futuristic technologies they should be funding.

(Excerpt) Read more at kk.org ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Computers/Internet; History; Science
KEYWORDS: computers; mooreslaw; progress; singularity
A lot of metaphysical BS at the end, similar to the ways atheist biologists end up autofellating over the mystery of their own knowledge; but the historical trends are interesting.

Cheers!

1 posted on 10/24/2010 5:57:35 AM PDT by grey_whiskers
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To: grey_whiskers

I read the article and then BAM! it was gone....


2 posted on 10/24/2010 7:05:37 AM PDT by Vermont Lt (We are so screwed.)
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To: grey_whiskers
Yup, interesting piece. Check out the history of wire recording. Guy invented it in 1898 and the idea took off like a rocket ~ that almost no one today remembers.

It took decades for other technologies to catch up with that one.

3 posted on 10/24/2010 7:07:38 AM PDT by muawiyah ("GIT OUT THE WAY" The Republicans are coming)
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To: grey_whiskers

It looks like the link has disappeared. I pulled the text from Google cache, but it seems the author did a good job of including various charts, which do not appear in Google’s cache.


4 posted on 10/24/2010 7:32:03 AM PDT by magellan
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To: grey_whiskers
A lot of metaphysical BS at the end, similar to the ways atheist biologists end up autofellating over the mystery of their own knowledge; but the historical trends are interesting.

Interesting the transistor appeared at the time
of the founding of the Nation of Israel.
Dan 12:4 "But as for you, Daniel, conceal these words and seal up the book until the end of time; many will go back and forth, and knowledge will increase."
shalom b'SHEM Yah'shua HaMashiach
5 posted on 10/24/2010 7:59:46 AM PDT by Uri’el-2012 (Psalm 119:174 I long for Your salvation, YHvH, Your law is my delight.)
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To: UriÂ’el-2012

Now THAT is an interesting comment, indeed. Lots of good stuff in Daniel, if you can winkle it out.


6 posted on 10/24/2010 8:38:13 AM PDT by chesley (Eat what you want, and die like a man.)
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To: magellan
The link seems to be back

7 posted on 10/24/2010 1:12:20 PM PDT by Uri’el-2012 (Psalm 119:174 I long for Your salvation, YHvH, Your law is my delight.)
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