Cook: Odds Of GOP Senate Near Zero After Delaware

IBD's Capital Hill ^ | 9/17/2010 | Sean Higgins

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Veteran election analyst Charlie Cook has backed away from his earlier prediction that control of the Senate was in play in this election. In light of Tuesday’s Delaware Republican primary, Cook says the odds now overwhelmingly favor the Democrats retaining their Senate majority:

[nhwingut]

My inside opinion is that Angle takes Nevada by a good margin. Myself and others have a horrific amount of dirt on Harry.

When does it get released?

[struggle]

I predict she will win by more than 5%.

[tennmountainman]

LOL

[PubliusMM]

At some point, on some level, we absolutely MUST start supporting and electing ideological purity over political pragmatism, if we are going to save this nation, because the pubbies believe that political compromise means turning each of the four cheeks, in rapid succession...

It’s time to take back the country.

[Will88]

CA is the one I have my eyes on, if Boxer can be dethroned, anyone can be dethroned.

In that huge state of around 34 million, there should be a few million conservatives who don't always vote who could be motivated to help defeat Boxer this year. Hopefully, turnout will be the end of Senator "Call Me Senator".

[DaxtonBrown]

[I like our chances in California, Nevada, West Virginia and Connecticut.]

From the insider stuff I know in Nevada, I think Angle walks in.

[KoRn]

I never thought the Senate was seriously in danger for the dems anyway. The Rs would have had to ‘run the table’, and that’s damn near impossible. With the dems losing several seats, it will bring the margins close enough to where nothing is gonna get rammed through.

I believe control of the House is the most important goal. With the House back under GOP control, and the Senate close to equal, gridlock will be the order of the day, and I believe that would be almost refreshing!

It will be time to tie up those ‘purse strings’, and CUT CUT CUT spending!

[Girlene]

.....Finally, they must win all seven Democratic-held seats that The Cook Political Report has in the toss-up column: the open seats in Illinois and Pennsylvania, and the seats of Barbara Boxer (CA), Michael Bennet (CO), Harry Reid (NV), Patty Murray (WA), and Russell Feingold (WI). If Republicans fall short in any one of these contests, they will have to pick up one more seat in either of the open-seat races in Connecticut or West Virginia. It’s certainly possible, but the odds are much worse now that Castle has lost.

Here's the latest I've found on the "toss-up" column that Cook refers to. Although most are pretty close, it looks like Washington is the only one, currently, with a democrate leading, and Nevada is tied.

Murray-D (WA) - 51% vs. Rossi 46% 9/14 Rasmussen
Feingold-D (WI) 44% vs. Johnson 51% 9/15 Rasmussen
Sestak -D (PA) 41% vs. Toomey 49% 9/15 Rasmussen
Reid - D (NV) 48% vs. Angle 48% 9/13 Rasmussen
Giannoulias-D (IL) 37% vs. Kirk 41% 9/7 Rasmussen
Bennett -D(CO) 45% vs. Buck 49% 9/14 Rasmussen
Boxer -D (CA) 47% vs. Fiorina 48% 9/6 Rasmussen

[kara37]

True, not only would Castle of sold us out. It would make him the most important vote in the Senate, being able to play both sides.

I am tired of making Kings out of Rino’s.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

“”Let me be a contrarian for a moment. Maybe it’s for the best that Republicans don’t hold both chambers going into the Presidential election cycle. It will be more difficult for Obama to run against and to blame Republicans for his continued failures.””

_______

I agree. Obama’s mantra for the first 2 years has been to BLAME BUSH. Given Obama’s track record let us not give him the next two years to BLAME CONGRESS.

Obama’s Marxist plans can be thwarted with a Republican House majority and a Senate with only 51 or so Democrats.

Defunding ObamaCare is the only pressing issue and the House can do that.

[BushCountry]

Why do we need the Senate exactly? All we need is enough conservative GOP Senators to stop the RINOs from giving bad legislation the 60 votes to override a filibuster. A pickup of five or six votes should do it.

[mac_truck]

If she loses, EVERYONE on our side is going to point at Rove and his propaganda drones.

Classic. Don't be accountable, shoot the messenger.

You've got the O'Donnell meme down to a tee.

[tennmountainman]

Chill out.

The same wave that defeated RINO Castle, is the same wave coming for the democrats this fall.

You will be VERY PLEASED with the “overall” outcome in the fall elections, because the tidal wave is still coming.

[dsrtsage]

“Let me be a contrarian for a moment. Maybe it’s for the best that Republicans don’t hold both chambers going into the Presidential election cycle. It will be more difficult for Obama to run against and to blame Republicans for his continued failures.”

HA! He had no trouble blaming republicans for all of his troubles when he had super-majorities

[rahbert]

Palin needs to visit and energize the base in WA.

This is not out of reach.

[USS Alaska]

Does "contrarian" mean "dumbass?"

Yep. anytime I read that some one thinks that being a loser is a winner, my brain just shuts down.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I think that we will pick up between 10 and 12 net Senate seats (and I’m not counting DE). A 10-seat pickup gives us a majority.

[ScottinVA]

I agree with most of your list, though at this point, I’d consider WVa and CT to lean democrat. “Tossup” is a bit generous. We’ll see, though.

[CPT Clay]

Most likely its going to be 51D-49R with the Dems very nervous about Joe Lieberman. LOL

[noiseman]

"One small correction, o’Donnell is NOT “down” 11, that is fuzzy thinking."

Exactly right. What the so-called experts are missing here, which is remarkable because you'd have to be blind to miss it, is that we have a huge advantage in enthusiasm this time around. Polls are only measuring talk, while the actual election will measure action. I think the action minus talk delta will be enormously in our favor, something that is not being captured by current polls.