[Impy]

Thanks for the 411 Aloha.

It appears tossup is the true category for this race.

[Impy]

Ping

[Impy]

Ping

[Clintonfatigued]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_crvGziPn3g&NR=1

This is great news. Tran’s campaign is really getting off the ground. His victory would really be historic.

[BillyBoy]

The district has probably changed alot since the glory days when B-1 Bob Dornan was in office, but it's still an Orange Co. district and has a significant number of Republicans. It gave Obama 60% of the vote in 2008, but in normal election cycles it tends to be split 50-50 and elects alot of Republicans locally. Sort of like my township, which gave Obama 60% in 2008 but voted for conservative Peter Fitzgerald in '98 and is now leaning heavily towards conservative Bill Brady for Governor.

I think Van Tran has a very good shot of upseating an incumbent, but even if this election climate, it's still difficult to get rid of entrenched RATs in majority RAT districts so the GOP will go all out.

One bonus for us is that Van Tran is likely to vote much more conservative than the centrist Cao in New Orleans. I hope Cao gets re-elected though, it would really annoy the libs that BOTH of the two Vietnamese-Americans ever to serve in Congressmen are Republicans, and Van Tran might be an influence on Cao and move him to the right.