Posted on 07/09/2010 5:10:03 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
Sarah Palin cranked up her 2012 presidential campaign another notch today, with the release of a campaign video aimed directly at women. The basic math is simple. If she gets half of the female primary voters and caucus attenders to support her, then she standing starts at roughly 25% of the total vote. Throw in a third of the male vote and she's at roughly 40%. Forty percent wins the Iowa caucuses, handily.
Which then sets up New Hampshire as the place where the not-Sarah candidate emerges. In all likelihood, that will be former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who finished second in NH in 2008 and who will spend whatever it takes to win there in 2012.
Assuming that the race is then reduced to Palin and Romney, the next critical state primary is South Carolina. At that point, I don't think the specifics really matter. The fact is that the Republican Party of 2012 is not going to nominate a Mormon as its standard bearer. And the more important fact is that the base of the Republican Party doesn't just favor Sarah Palin, they love her. She is their standard bearer. And they will not -- this time around -- be denied.
As the Republican avalanche of 2010 builds -- and I saw a poll the other day of a Democratic-leaning state Senate district on Long Island where the "right track" (8%)/"wrong direction" (83%) was unlike anything I had ever seen -- Palin has smartly positioned herself as the champion of the conservative counter-revolution. By December, she will almost certainly be the de facto front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination.
By the time the Establishment GOP wakes up to this reality, it may be too late for them to do anything about it. Their view of Palin is that she's useful to the party because she can help keep "the Tea Party types inside the tent." And maybe she can serve coffee while she's at it. Palin's view is that (1) "the Tea Party types" are the party, (2) she is their standard bearer and (3) anyone who thinks "the Tea Party types" are there to lick envelopes and knock on doors should think again. They're there, she asserts, to take back their party and to take back their country.
"She's too stupid" is what the Establishment GOP really thinks about Sarah Palin. "Good-looking," but a "ditz." This is unfertile ground, since Palin can turn the argument on a dime and say: "They drive the country into bankruptcy, they underwrite Fannie and Freddie, they bail out Goldman Sachs, they fight wars they don't want to win, they say enforcing the immigration laws is silly and they call me stupid! I'll give you a choice: you can have their smarts or my stupidity, which one do you want?" A large number of GOP presidential primary voters will take Palin's "stupidity" in a heartbeat.
What this means is two things: (1) the pressure on former Florida Governor Jeb Bush to run for the GOP presidential nomination will increase as the year moves along, and (2) the likelihood of a strong independent party candidacy increases as Palin's support within the GOP broadens. Oh, and it also means one other thing: President Obama is not doomed.
“She’ll be the nominee barring the emergence of a better candidate.”
You are right in that she hasn’t positioned herself as the Champion of the Conservative Counterrevolution.It is self evident, from her past and from her current actions, that believes in the conservative counterrevolution and the “counterrevolutionaries” know it. They trust her.
You are wrong that the CCR has merely accepted her. They are enthusiastic about her. John Ellis is right. The base of the GOP does not just favor her. They love her. Broken glass voters.
The Republican Establishment, of which Mr. Ellis is firmly a member, loves to insinuate that their party’s base heathens are bigots. (In this case, religious bigots.)
Do you think that some of “us” will buy the MSM lies/fabrications/distortions about her?
Immigration and border security will be a major issue. Jeb makes George Bush look like Tom Tancredo.
How are the scabs on your knuckles healing?
Palin was on Oreilly tonite...She could not articulate a clear answer to “what would you do if you were Pres about immigration.”
wow, as a Palin fan, I was disappointed.
By now, THAT answer she should have ready..but then neither does the Rep party have a clear cut plan!
I will never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, EVER vote for another Bush.....under ANY circumstances.
"We are advancing constantly and we're not interested in holding onto anything except the enemy. We're going to hold onto him by the nose and we're going to kick him in the ass. We're going to kick the hell out of him all the time and we're going to go through him like crap through a goose."
“The notion that Palin is either like Reagan or that the Country is the same as in 1978 just isn’t solid reasoning.
R. Reagan would have made a fool of Katie Couric and C. Gibson....Both made Palin look to be one. R. Reagan did not run from his job once it became difficult. He faced those difficulties / responsibilities head on....Mrs. Palin choose the exact opposite path.”
I highly recommend that you read Craig Shirley’s excellent history of the 1980 campaign. As Shirley points out, Reagan made many mistakes and gaffes, and the consensus of the MSM and the Establishment was that he was either too old or too stupid to be President. Try educating yourself instead of popping off the quitter/Couric talking points. Come up with something original, if you can. The country in spring, 1980 had far more misgivings about Reagan than they do about Palin even after the pounding she has taken. Not until the debate with Carter did he dispel them.
Don’t try to tell me wheat happened when Reagan ran. I lived through it and Shirley has it documented in minute detail.
Whom you appear to have left off of your list.
RomneyCARE neutralizes ObamaCARE.
Romney support of illegals neutralizes Obama's.
Romney's parents of Mexican birth neutralize the Obama absent birth certificate issue.
Romney's destruction of Massachusetts neutralizes Obama's destruction of America.
Romney's destruction of the Mass. Constitution to impose gay marriage neutralizes Obama's destruction of the US Constitution.
And by making the carpetbagging backstabber the candidate,
given that Team Romney attacked Gov Palin during Election 2008 to throw the election to Obama,
most Americans would agree that the GOP would not deserve to win, anyway.
“Found a Patton quote today that I thought could well be Sarah’s answer to those whining about her not holding onto her position as governor”
Now that is going to offend some of the hostorical illiterates who troll the Palin threads and are offended by any analogies between her and historical figures. Too damn bad! You are right.
According to Gallup, the country is a couple of percentage points MORE conservative today than when Ronald Reagan ran in 1980.
Cant say who I will vote for, but I can say who I will not vote for.
Any Bush, Romney, or Huckabee.
Bushes go away and stay with the Rat party you love.
Governor Brewer and a number of other Republicans have shown that they also have “brass”. I like all those who are critical of ROP (Reid,Obama,Pelosi).
Like so?
Palin stabbed conservatives in their backs when she endorsed and campaigned for the traitor McCain and his minion FioRINO.
And that's not even counting her support for Graham, Hatch, and Murkowski.
No more Bushes. No more GD Bushes.
A fact that many around here probably forget, or never knew. I remember it, and I remember that even after the disastrous Carter years and decades of public life for Reagan, Ronald Reagan did not close the deal with the voters until 10 days before the 1980 election.
Of course, the media was far stronger then and years of trashing Reagan was a lot for him to overcome.
Sarah Palin's challenge is a little different. The media is weaker, to be sure, but their attacks have been far more personal. A very different obstacle to overcome.
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