Posted on 03/31/2010 5:31:02 AM PDT by Need4Truth
ADP reports:
Nonfarm private employment decreased 23,000 from February to March on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from January 2010 to February 2010 was revised down slightly, from a decline of 20,000 to a decline of 24,000.
The March employment decline was the smallest since employment began falling in February of 2008. Yet, the lack of improvement in employment from February to March is consistent with the pause in the decline of initial unemployment claims that occurred during the winter.
Since employment as measured by the ADP Report was not restrained in February by the effects of inclement weather, today’s figure does not incorporate a weather-related rebound that could be present in this month’s BLS data. In addition, today’s figure does not include any federal hiring in March for the 2010 Census. For both these reasons, it is reasonable to expect that Friday’s employment figure from the BLS will be stronger than today’s estimate in the ADP National Employment Report.
Note: ADP is private nonfarm employment only (no government jobs).
This is far below the consensus forecast of an increase of 40,000 private sector jobs in March.
(Excerpt) Read more at calculatedriskblog.com ...
Just keep recallibrating those numbers, zero.
Even with the Censur hiring?
Census
Need Coffee
Wait till they add in the number of NJ teachers laid off this year because of Gov. Christie’s budget cuts to education.
This reports private sector jobs only. Bloomberg calls this a sign of a “weak recovery”. I suppose adding in census hiring will make it a sign of a stronger recovery.
Census hiring is public, not private. The ADP report is private employment only.
Because of Census hiring I’m still expecting tomorrow’s March report to show a drop in the unemployment rate and that the economy gained jobs, but I don’t think it will be the +250k I’ve been hearing on CNBC.
In any case, if tomorrow’s figures don’t show at least an uptick of +100k jobs overall then we’re in bigger trouble than almost anyone thinks because the Census should have hired many tens of thousands.
There are of course complications. The economy could show an uptick in employment and an increase in the unemployment rate at the same time because people who gave up previously started looking again. A better figure to look at is the U6 which combines underemployed as well us unemployed and “discouraged workers” who gave up trying. That’s the real figure to watch, it is less subject to strange statistical effects.
Really out of expectation.
So the non-farm payroll employment on Fri. will be out of expectation too.
Like I said-huge disappointment. Watching the spin is unreal but the traders know its bad.
He wants to kill as many private sector jobs as he can. The Dems who voted for this guy and are out of a job deserve what they got.
with that said, he shows no signs of reversing his job killing measures. Without the census ,this number would be complete disaster for him
These upcoming numbers is why Obama put out a ‘salacious’ headline to drill...a diversion.
Is a 'weak' recovery sorta like a 'strong' deterioration?
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