Even with the Censur hiring?
Census
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Census hiring is public, not private. The ADP report is private employment only.
Because of Census hiring I’m still expecting tomorrow’s March report to show a drop in the unemployment rate and that the economy gained jobs, but I don’t think it will be the +250k I’ve been hearing on CNBC.
In any case, if tomorrow’s figures don’t show at least an uptick of +100k jobs overall then we’re in bigger trouble than almost anyone thinks because the Census should have hired many tens of thousands.
There are of course complications. The economy could show an uptick in employment and an increase in the unemployment rate at the same time because people who gave up previously started looking again. A better figure to look at is the U6 which combines underemployed as well us unemployed and “discouraged workers” who gave up trying. That’s the real figure to watch, it is less subject to strange statistical effects.