How the Immigration Bill Died

The Roundtable ^ | June 08, 2007 | Craig Thomas

[2ndDivisionVet]

Right Wing News has an excellent post about how the Amnesty Immigration Bill died yesterday.

After the 2nd cloture vote failure at noon on Thursday, Harry Reid could not get unanimous consent to call up amendments to the bill because Jim DeMint refused to give his consent. This was extremely problematic for Reid because he wanted to get in votes on 6 more amendments before the last try at a cloture vote.

At that point, all the senators who were participants in the "Grand Compromise" AKA the "Masters of the Universe" by the opponents of the bill, leaned on DeMint to try to get him to give consent for the bill to move forward. Unfortunately for them, DeMint wouldn't budge. This essentially killed the entire afternoon that the pro-amnesty side hoped to use to shore up support for the bill.

While DeMint was gumming up the works, the opponents of the bill, including most prominently Jim DeMint, Jeff Sessions, and Tom Coburn, huddled and came up with a list of conservative amendments they wanted considered.

The "Grand Compromise" crowd didn't want a lot of these amendments to be voted on because either some of the amendments would have been accepted and it would have killed the bill or alternately, they would have had to vote against common sense enforcement measures and made themselves look bad.

Eventually, after the process was tied up all afternoon and failed a third cloture vote, Harry Reid yanked the bill even though the opponents of the bill said they were willing to stop gumming up the process as long as all the amendments they wanted were voted on today.

If this immigration bill is passed, I do not think the GOP will survive the fallout from it. I think the Republican Party will be hurt at least until 2010, if not longer. Look at what we are seeing so far.

1. RNC Donations Down 40%

Faced with an estimated 40 percent fall-off in small-donor contributions and aging phone-bank equipment that the RNC said would cost too much to update, Anne Hathaway, the committee's chief of staff, summoned the solicitations staff last week and told them they were out of work, effective immediately, the fired staffers told The Times.

There has been a sharp decline in contributions from RNC phone solicitations, another fired staffer said, reporting that many former donors flatly refuse to give more money to the national party if Mr. Bush and the Senate Republicans insist on supporting what these angry contributors call "amnesty" for illegal aliens.

"Everyone donor in 50 states we reached has been angry, especially in the last month and a half, and for 99 percent of them immigration is the No. 1 issue," said the former employee.

2. According to the latest Rasmussen Reports, 49% of the country prefers no bill at all to the crappy bill that the Senate is currently voting on.

Public support for the Senate immigration reform bill has slipped a bit over the past week. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Monday and Tuesday night found that just 23% of voters now support the bill while 50% are opposed. Last week, 26% supported the Senate bill while 48% were opposed.

Not surprisingly, this week’s survey also found that 45% of voters would prefer a scaled-back version of the Senate bill that focuses only on border control and reducing immigration. Given that option, 31% would prefer the Senate bill.

As the debate has unfolded, Democrats have become modestly less opposed to the legislation while Republicans have trended slightly in the opposite direction. It would be a mistake, however, to see the difference as a typical partisan divide--just 29% of Democrats support the measure while 40% are opposed. Among Republicans, support is at 21% 57% are opposed. Only 17% of those not affiliated with either party support the measure. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of unaffiliateds are opposed.

3. Approval Ratings Terrible for the President (29%) and Congress (18%).

President Bush’s job-approval rating has fallen to its lowest mark of his presidency, according to a new Harris Interactive poll. Of 1,003 U.S. adults surveyed in a telephone poll, 29% think Mr. Bush is doing an “excellent or pretty good” job as president, down from 35% in April and significantly lower than 43% in January. Approval ratings for Congress overall also sank, and now stand at 18%.

When are these folks going to get it? When are ALL the politicians going to look back and see they do not connect at all with the American public. They have completely lost touch. However, the GOP will be most hurt because of Bush's overwhelming support of this bill.

Right Wing News addresses this dilemma as well.

The GOP had a horrible year at the polls in 2006 and their base, as well as the American public is very down on them. Additionally, George Bush is going to be an albatross around the neck of every Republican candidate in 2008.

So, what is the Republican Party about to do? They're about to back a bill that is so unpopular with their own base that it will significantly hurt fund raising, lead to primary challenges for senators up for reelection, and will probably peel off millions of potential voters who will stay home or vote for third party loser candidates in protest, rather than vote for the GOP.

Now, that's what their biggest supporters think. But, the American people also oppose this bill by a more than 2 to 1 margin and most of the energy and passion is on the side of the people who oppose it. In other words, if this bill becomes a law, it's too early to say for sure how much damage it will cause, but my best guess is that it will probably cost us the presidency, 5 seats in the Senate, and probably 10-15 house seats.

[Reaganwuzthebest]

There are some who say this will pass, and soon. It doesn't mean that it will only that the forces of destruction won't go quietly:

Democrats say they may revisit immigration bill

But Mr. Kyl predicted Sunday that the Senate would return to the bill and pass it before its Fourth of July recess, even though he acknowledged that the immigration battle was taking a political toll on the Republican Party.

“There is no political winner in this for us,” Mr. Kyl said on CNN. “But sometimes there are big problems that have to be addressed, and there’s no political gain in it and maybe even political loss. You’ve got to do it, nonetheless.”

[tennmountainman]

Kyl is delutional.

[cripplecreek]

News of it’s demise is premature.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Just say NO to Amnesty!! Keep calling!! It’s NOT OVER!!

U.S. Senate switchboard: (202) 224-3121

U.S. House switchboard: (202) 225-3121

White House comments: (202) 456-1111

Find your House Rep.: http://www.house.gov/writerep

Find your US Senators: http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm

[Reaganwuzthebest]

That’s my interpretation too, he’s acting like a spoiled child who didn’t get his way but you know they do want this badly.

[K-oneTexas]

I think Jim DeMint, Jeff Sessions, and Tom Coburn need to be actively recruiting their ‘Band of 12 or 14’ and begin their campaign for responsible reform.

[Tennessee Nana]

Sleep with both eyes open...

This Bill was snuck out of the Senate Sandy Burglar style and is hidden in a closet somewhere...

Only Harry Reid knows where...Any day or night this AMNESTY Bill will come out of the closet, be mixed with a milk-money-for-the-children Bill as an Amendment and voted on .....

[tennmountainman]

“I think Jim DeMint, Jeff Sessions, and Tom Coburn need to be actively recruiting their ‘Band of 12 or 14’ and begin their campaign for responsible reform.”

Great idea.

Remember McCain’s “14 Gangsters” that slowed appointments of judges.

Then the “12 Gangsters” who thought they could ram through a sovernity changing bill.

It’s time for Sessions to form our own gang of 12

Call it the “Gang of Millions” against Amnesty.

[Uncle Chip]

Sleep with both eyes open... This Bill was snuck out of the Senate Sandy Burglar style and is hidden in a closet somewhere... Only Harry Reid knows where...Any day or night this AMNESTY Bill will come out of the closet, be mixed with a milk-money-for-the-children Bill as an Amendment and voted on .....

Very wise advice and astute observation. That is exactly how they passed the National I.D. Act.

[SirJohnBarleycorn]

I listened to Kyl at the press conference after the cloture vote failed, and what I took from his comments were two principal points:

1. Kyl wants him name associated with “historic” legislation, a term he used repeatedly, and

2. He devoted a lot of his own time to working on this thing, and believes we should all agree to pass it because he personally worked hard on it.

[K-oneTexas]

Choices to counter the "Gang Of 14" moderates.

"The Gang of 14" Members:
Republicans:John McCain, Arizona;Lindsey Graham, South Carolina; John Warner, Virginia;Olympia Snowe, Maine; Susan Collins, Maine; Mike DeWine, Ohio; Lincoln Chafee, Rhode Island;
Democrats: Joe Lieberman, Connecticut; Robert Byrd, West Virginia; Ben Nelson, Nebraska; Mary Landrieu, Louisiana; Daniel Inouye, Hawaii; Mark Pryor, Arkansas; Ken Salazar, Colorado;

The counter "Band of 14" Members:

Republicans

Jeff Sessions, Alabama

Tom Couburn, Oklahoma

David Vitter, Louisuana;

John Cornyn, Texas

Jim Inhofe, Oklahoma

John Thune, South Dakota

John Ensign, Nevada

Jim DeMint, South Carolina

Democrats

?Byron Dorgan, North Dakota?

[tennmountainman]

Add Mary Landrau, Louisianna

[JohnLongIsland]

washington, both conservative and liberal have lost all touch with what the american people want. they might as well move the capitol into the united nations building and replace dingy harry with kofi annan (i guess he’s looking for work).

[Pelham]

They need to form a new party so we can have one to support.

[Dov in Houston]

It laid down and took a rest. It did not die. Boosh and Reid are going to resurrect it yet

[SouthJrzReaganite18]

President Bush’s job-approval rating has fallen to its lowest mark of his presidency, according to a new Harris Interactive poll. Of 1,003 U.S. adults surveyed in a telephone poll, 29% think Mr. Bush is doing an “excellent or pretty good” job as president, down from 35% in April and significantly lower than 43% in January.

Odd, when Bush's approval rating is down to because of his handling of the war in Iraq, it's every other news story. Yet, when it is because of his clear support for a bill the American people do not want, the media falls quiet. You know something is wrong when the media is being nice to Bush (well, except for talk Radio of course).

So, what is the Republican Party about to do? They're about to back a bill that is so unpopular with their own base that it will significantly hurt fund raising, lead to primary challenges for senators up for reelection, and will probably peel off millions of potential voters who will stay home or vote for third party loser candidates in protest, rather than vote for the GOP.

Not to mention create a base of 12 million new Democrat voters. California will never be a red state again thanks to the amnesty of the 80's - and now we may do the same thing to Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. This will mean the death of the Republican party.

[penowa]

"...it's too early to say for sure how much damage it will cause, but my best guess is that it will probably cost us the presidency, 5 seats in the Senate, and probably 10-15 house seats."

Very optimistic assessment IMO. If the Republicans escaped with that little damage, they would have a guardian angel looking out for their interests or Karl Rove working his magic on the voting machines as the DUmmies believe.

[Cicero]

Agreed. If this bill were to pass, the Republican Party would never win again. For one thing, the Democrats would pick up a huge influx of voters. For another, conservatives would never trust the party again, regardless of who was nominated.

And I doubt very much whether conservatives could put together a new party that would take back the White House, to replace the defunct Republican party. By the time they got one put together, the Democrats would have pocketed a hundred million illegal voters.