Giuliani: Put More States In Play, Or Else We'll Use [sic]

National Journal/Hotline ^ | 4/23/07 | Chuck Todd

[meg88]

April 23, 2007 Giuliani: Put More States In Play, Or Else We'll Use We've heard Giuliani advisers make this argument, but we've never heard it from the candidate himself.

Interviewed this a.m. on the Imus substitute on MSNBC, Giuliani said

"From a political point of view, I probably have the best chance of putting states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Washington, Oregon, California in play. And as a Republicans, if we don't put those states in play next time ... we may see a Democratic president."

Pennsylvania and New Jersey are realistic. California, Oregon and Washington are second-tier. Connecticut is unlikely.

But Giuliani's point holds, right?

[CharlesWayneCT]

Why do you think he is right? Join the discussion, don’t be a defeatist yes-person.

[meg88]

Home News Tribune Online 04/19/07
TRENTON, N.J. (AP) … New Jersey hasn’t supported a Republican for president for nearly 20 years, but a new poll released Thursday shows former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leading all presidential challengers in New Jersey.

The Quinnipiac University poll found the Republican with similar leads over the three leading Democratic presidential candidates.

Giuliani leads New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent, the poll found. He leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 48 percent to 38 percent, and 2004 vice presidential candidate John Edwards 48 percent to 41 percent.

New Jersey hasn’t supported a Republican for president since 1988.

“”It makes no difference who the Democrats put up … Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama or John Edwards … former Mayor Giuliani continues to knock out all challengers in the New Jersey presidential race,’’ said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
http://www.thnt.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070419/NEWS/70419003

[HostileTerritory]

Why do we need to win more states than we did before?

Because the national environment has shifted against us to the degree that a Republican running a 2000/2004 red vs. blue campaign will lose Ohio and Iowa in 2008 and probably Colorado and New Mexico as well.

I think Fred Thompson deserves a chance to run and show his stuff, but I have to say the profile of the kind southern gentlemen who is tough on social issues but sounds nice is played out and won't play well outside the solid south. Thompson is appealing for the same reasons Bush was appealing in 2000 but we really need a different approach. Obama or Edwards (I don't count Hillary as a possibility) will sweep the Midwest and probably Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico if we run a candidate whose appeal is strongest in the south.

[CharlesWayneCT]

Not a very convincing argument.

[wagglebee]

If Rudy is nominated, he will through the entire South “into play” and had the ‘Rats their biggest victory since 1964. And even if I’m wrong, it still doesn’t matter, because all this is doing is INSURING THAT A LIBERAL WILL WIN THE PRESIDENCY.

[FastCoyote]

If you have a Republican candidate who can’t articulate CONSERVATIVE ideas to the masses, then we are doomed even if we keep the White House.

[GenuineChocolateFace]

Upon reflection, the GOOD I can see coming out of this, is maybe the whole “coattail” thing - maybe people would vote for OTHER (R)s on the ballots for other offices, and we could get congress back.

THAT would be nice.

/Silver Lining

[Alberta's Child]

On the flip side . . . Giuliani might be the only Republican in modern history who could actually put states like Texas, Idaho, Wyoming and Nebraska in play.

[oceanview]

no way. Thompson can win the general, but the idea that he is going to turn the map into some Reagan landslide is not true. In fairness, Rudy can’t either. But Thompson’s electoral strategy is as narrow as the Bush stategy was in 2000 and 2004. Thompson isn’t winning NJ, would need a miracle to win PA.

Thompson would have to work to flip Wisconsin, hold Iowa, and hold Colorado and Nevada if Richardson is the VP. That’s his game plan.

[FranklinsTower]

This logic is simply the ends justify the means. That is not how one should make moral decisions in life.

Don't be fooled by his charisma. It is obvious to anyone who looks that he has holds positions that are politically beneficial to him at the time -- a classic ends justify the means trait that this country really doesn't need right now.

Electing Rudy is almost as sure fire a way of guaranteeing our moral decline before the fall. Check the history of Rome for reference.

[wagglebee]

And Mississippi, Alabama, Utah, Alaska, etc.

[VRWCmember]

I think southerners are still smart enough to vote for the more conservative option.

The conservative base has to be energized or the south goes into play for the dems. Furthermore, if the dems are encouraged by the fact that the voters have been given a choice between clinton and clinton-lite, then the party activists will know they might be able to get the election close enough to steal thru vote fraud (like they almost did in 2000 after the errant call for Florida before the polls were closed supressed the GOP turnout in western FLA by at least 5000 to 10000 votes).

[oceanview]

Because we likely cannot win Ohio in 2008 - and I include Rudy in that comment. That’s why.

so, we have to look elsewhere.

[Nick Danger]

Every poll that has Hunter, Paul, or Thompson in it, Hillary and Obama go down in flames.

Paul beats Clinton? On what planet? Thompson (Fred, not Tommy) I could see easily. Hunter I could see if the stars align just so. But Paul? Please... there are 50,000 comedians out of work. Don't make things any harder on them.

[Alberta's Child]

It's also been ten years since a Republican has won a statewide race in New Jersey -- even though the Democrats have consistently run a bunch of crooked scumbags who could fill textbooks with their personality disorders and psychiatric problems.

With every passing day there are more revelations about our former governor -- who celebrated the pending birth of his daughter by running around picking up anonymous gay sex partners at highway rest areas. And this moron would still win, if he ran again.

[pookie18]

Every poll that has Hunter, Paul, or Thompson in it, Hillary and Obama go down in flames.

Why would Hunter or Paul be in a poll with Hillary & Obama? Have either of them reached 4% in Republican polls? & Thompson has yet to declare (though I'm hopeful that he will)...

[HostileTerritory]

You should not count on Ohio as a solid Republican state in 2008. The atmosphere there is toxic, toxic, toxic right now. It’s one of very few states where Bush’s margin actually narrowed between 2000 and 2004 even while he upped it nationwide by 3%.

[rhombus]

I don’t think Rudy’s the guy. I agree we do however need to appeal to people in the red states that we’ve lost since 2004. Likewise it would be nice if we could put some blue states in play by appealing to the people there who know the Dems aren’t ready to lead. What blue states were close in 2004 but we still lost? However, Rudy is too divisive because of the abortion issue. For every voter we might attract from the mushy middle who is seeking leadership, we will lose a 2-3 socio-cons from red states.

[HostileTerritory]

Ok, I see I guessed wrong why you didn’t mention Ohio. :) Carry on.

[meg88]

Florida Head-to-Head Match-Ups
Giuliani 50 - Clinton 40
Giuliani 52 - Obama 36
Giuliani 50 - Edwards 40

McCain 45 - Clinton 44
McCain 45 - Obama 39
McCain 41 - Edwards 43

Romney 39 - Clinton 45
Romney 35 - Obama 42
Romney 31 - Edwards 50

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2007/04/florida_2008_poll.html