Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB
For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.
The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.
I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.
There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.
Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.
So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.
However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.
I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."
At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.
I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.
With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.
This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.
With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."
Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.
With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.
These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.
I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.
I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....
But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.
As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.
Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.
If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.
First half of February. Thanks!
800
i spammed. so stune me
ahh. I do high school through Indiana University. Not bad
argh
"...Do they hover a foot from your face, chirping madly, while you're hanging them back up? I expect one of mine will attack one of these days."
They will only attack if you dress up in your male hummingbird suit. They are trying to tell you how happy they are that you are going to feed them again! Look at them closely and you will see little tiny smiles of delight!
On one thing, I partially agree with you. I believe that the Republican behavior in Congress over the Terry Schiavo case was one of the most contemptible demonstrations of hysterical abandonment of basic principles of American society, that I have ever witnessed. I discussed this at length in my May, 2005 feature at my Conservative Resource Center:
Terry Schiavo--An End To Rational Analysis?. However, I think that you make a major mistake, even there, in assuming that the fanatics picketing the hospice, and the poseurs in Congress, represent all Evangelical Christians. They do not.
On the other hand, you are sadly mistaken, if you think that Mrs. Clinton or the New York Mayor will be acceptable to any class of true Conservatives. (Again, I am not questioning the genuineness of your Conservatism, only your excessive emphasis on certain issues that are not crucial issues to more than 1% or 2% of the population, and your overlooking other issues, which have a far more potent influence--even if not stated at the moment.
William Flax
It sounds good, alright. Anoreth has probably figured out that a lot of nice guys hang out at the drum and bugle corps things.
Civil War camp sounds good, too. :o]
"...Just make sure the name is spelled right..."
That's what I always said when I was in customer service, and someone threatened to tell my supervisor: "If you decide to do that, just make sure you spell the name correctly."
And I would hang up on the doo-doo heads.
Sorry, kid...I dedicated the last one to you, but this time, it has my name...and I'll keep it. And try not to spam next time, OK? The Rules still apply.
I thought up to three was allowed? Guess not
Welcome! You have just stumbled into the Reincarnation of the Undead Thread, temporary headquarters for the Castle of Rare Birds...El Alcazar del Rara Avia.
Please...stay a while. *evil laughter echoing down the corridor*
How many times will you try to spam it "up to three"?
I don't mind it, but it's not what I would consider an ethical tactic. I dunno, but you seem much better than that.
'Face
Anoreth is not interested in males ... she has too many brothers. She plans to be an old maid with cats!
She just wanted to spend the night with her friends, and this is what their family had planned, for some reason. She'll probably enjoy it, though. It's not supposed to rain, and the temperature's under 100. And since the boys are away, we don't get have to get up 0600 to get them off to camp!
The report today from the Civil War is that they marched two miles with all their gear, but it should have been further, because they still had too much energy! We'll get to see them drill on Thursday afternoon, should be fun.
LOL!
I always found that D&BC events were a lot of fun, because I liked the precision required. Who knows what it will inspire in Anoreth?
Yah...Where is all that boy-energy when it's time for the lawn to be mowed, or their rooms to be cleaned? LOL!
Aquarian like me.
I think Reagan was born on the 6th.
Bill likes to mow the lawn, but nobody likes to clean their rooms!
I've known lots of Aquarians. A sister, a brother, an ex-husband, friends...
I can get along with anyone. *snort*
So you're suffering from that "A Nest With Room To Walk" syndrome, eh?
The plaintive wails of young children, suddenly discovering the terrors of agoraphobia, will echo through the house.
Bwa-ha- Erk* ... Sorry, I'll behave myself.
Enjoy your almost privacy.
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