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Potential Republican Crack-Up

Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB

For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.

The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.

I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.

There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.

Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.

So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.

However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.

I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."

At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.

I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.

With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.

This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.

With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."

Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.

With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.

These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.

I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.

I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....

But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.

As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.

Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.

If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.


TOPICS: Politics
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To: HKMk23

One of the funniest promo's ever...

3,101 posted on 08/15/2005 11:47:12 AM PDT by Dead Corpse (Never underestimate the will of the downtrodden to lie flatter.)
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To: Dead Corpse

I'll vote for that...;o]


3,102 posted on 08/15/2005 12:10:54 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Why did kamikaze pilots wear helmets?)
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To: HKMk23; Monkey Face
Actually, the Andrews Sisters could probably make the Alphabet a great song.

I love Bette Midler's covers of them too.
3,103 posted on 08/15/2005 12:21:01 PM PDT by fanfan (" The liberal party is not corrupt " Prime Minister Paul Martin)
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To: HKMk23
Here's an assignment for you. Years ago, and I will be displaying my age, there was a show on TV called the Winchell Mahoney Club. It starred Knucklehead Smith and Jerry Mahoney (Puppets) and Paul Winchell. The title song went something like this:

Hooray, hoorah, it's Winchell Mahoney Time

It's Winchell Mahoney Time

It's lots of fun

Hooray, Hoorah, we're glad everybody's here

Come on let us give a cheer

For everyone.

So Ready in your places

Put on your happy faces

SOMETHING SOMETHING SOMETHING SOMETHING SOME ...

Hip Hip Hip Hip Hooray Hoorah, it's Winchell Mahoney time

SOMETHING SOMETHING SOMETHING

Now, SOMEONE PLEASE fill in the SOMETHINGS!!!???

It's been driving me nuts for years.

3,104 posted on 08/15/2005 12:41:40 PM PDT by Hi Heels (Guns kill and cause crime? Dang, mine must be malfunctioning....)
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To: Monkey Face
Ok... this is kina cool...
3,105 posted on 08/15/2005 12:47:52 PM PDT by Dead Corpse (Never underestimate the will of the downtrodden to lie flatter.)
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To: Hi Heels

This is the best I can do ya for on short notice:

http://www.paulwinchell.com/


3,106 posted on 08/15/2005 1:06:25 PM PDT by HKMk23 (GoT this sweLl tagline oN eBay qith changE I fond in meye soFa. It's a "fixer.")
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To: HKMk23

Nah. I even emailed his daughter. Nothin'. *sigh*


3,107 posted on 08/15/2005 1:08:53 PM PDT by Hi Heels (Guns kill and cause crime? Dang, mine must be malfunctioning....)
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To: Hi Heels
Okay, then, hows about THIS:

Hooray! Hurrah!
It's Winchell-Mahoney Time,
And Winchell-Mahoney means it's time for fun!
Hooray! Hurrah!
We're glad everybody's here,
Come on! Let us hear a cheer from everyone!
So ready in your places, light up those happy faces,
You gotta yell and tell 'em who you are!
Hip! Hip! Hooray, hurrah!
Sis-boom-bah!
Scotty, waddy, doo-dah!
Scotty, waddy, doo-dah!
Scotty, waddy, doo-doo-dah!

3,108 posted on 08/15/2005 1:13:42 PM PDT by HKMk23 (GoT this sweLl tagline oN eBay qith changE I fond in meye soFa. It's a "fixer.")
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To: Dead Corpse

Yah! It WAS kinda cool!

Thanks! I needed a Mystic Portal...


3,109 posted on 08/15/2005 1:31:36 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Why did kamikaze pilots wear helmets?)
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To: HKMk23

Oh WOW!!! Thanks. Evidently all films of the show were destroyed during a contract negotiation phase. No known copies survive.


3,110 posted on 08/15/2005 1:53:36 PM PDT by Hi Heels (Guns kill and cause crime? Dang, mine must be malfunctioning....)
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To: Monkey Face
Anyone got Quicktime, a decent connection, and a sense of humor about things Southern?

Click here...

Y'all might wanna put yer' beer down first.

3,111 posted on 08/15/2005 2:20:19 PM PDT by Dead Corpse (Never underestimate the will of the downtrodden to lie flatter.)
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To: Dead Corpse

I wish I had the quick time...maybe I can download it...I hate to put so much on here, because I have so much I need to transfer to CD's.


3,112 posted on 08/15/2005 3:03:07 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Why did kamikaze pilots wear helmets?)
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To: Hi Heels

Most recently, Paul Winchell has been the voice of Tigger on Winnie the Pooh.

(Let's just forget about the stint as "Scrubbing Bubbles," shall we?)

I can't help with the song, but I recall that Jerry Mahoney always called Winchell a "Ventrickalist."


3,113 posted on 08/15/2005 3:45:43 PM PDT by NicknamedBob (Mighty and enduring? They are but toys of the moment to be overturned by the flicking of a finger.)
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To: tuliptree76

Jay bought his pistol!
We went to a couple of gun shops for price comparison
and he finally bought his Ruger P89 at Academy for about $380 after tax. He bought a box of 250 rounds for about $30. The pistol came with two high cap magazines and a lock. Dang, now I want a pistol...


3,114 posted on 08/15/2005 5:09:28 PM PDT by Army Air Corps (Four fried chickens and a coke)
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To: Army Air Corps

LOL! Gonna start saving up now? ;-)


3,115 posted on 08/15/2005 5:13:59 PM PDT by tuliptree76 (I'm sailing on the wide accountancy.)
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To: tuliptree76

Well, I haven't been on FR for the past few hours because we drove to the house of a friend of his; this guy lives in the middle of nowehere. So, we fired a few rounds at his friend's house. I took my Lee-Enfield No.4 Mk.1 out there and we fired it a bit. The targets were shredded at the end of the firing. Then, an empty Dr. Pepper can became a new target; some of it is intact...


3,116 posted on 08/15/2005 5:20:09 PM PDT by Army Air Corps (Four fried chickens and a coke)
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To: tuliptree76

Actually, I am. A little cash set aside each month; I plan to buy it by December.


3,117 posted on 08/15/2005 5:21:37 PM PDT by Army Air Corps (Four fried chickens and a coke)
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To: Army Air Corps

I haven't been on either until just a bit ago. - Got the plants for Winston's aquarium.


3,118 posted on 08/15/2005 5:26:56 PM PDT by tuliptree76 (I'm sailing on the wide accountancy.)
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To: Army Air Corps

Woooo!


3,119 posted on 08/15/2005 5:32:04 PM PDT by tuliptree76 (I'm sailing on the wide accountancy.)
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To: tuliptree76

I am thinking of either A) a Ruger 9mm or .45ACP or B) a CZ75 9mm.


3,120 posted on 08/15/2005 5:34:55 PM PDT by Army Air Corps (Four fried chickens and a coke)
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