Potential Republican Crack-Up

[KMB]

For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.

The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.

I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.

There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.

Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.

So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.

However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.

I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."

At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.

I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.

With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.

This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.

With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."

Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.

With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.

These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.

I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.

I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....

But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.

As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.

Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.

If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.

[sionnsar]

Congratulations on 3000!

[Monkey Face]

Kewl! I hope I will be able to stay for all three meetings next week, but it will depend on how my week goes...for at least three of the days, I will have busy mornings out of the house. And that always wears me out. (Gads! I used to go from 5:00 AM to 10:00 PM or later and always get up refreshed and rested.) :o[

[Monkey Face]

WHOA!!!! I DID IT! WOO HOO!!!! YAY ME!

*doing a little dance, here*

[Knitting A Conundrum]

Yay 'Face!

[sionnsar]

Yikes. Forgot it was my radio listening time. 3 hours of Celtic music, followed by an hour of medieval, then a varied program called "The Old Country." Get my week's fix of music in one sitting. (But "The Grateful Dead Hour" following drives us away.)

[Monkey Face]

LOL!

[Monkey Face]

Thanks!

I've missed a lot of 00's and all the 000's so far, so this one feels pretty good! ;o]

[sionnsar]

Trying out a new tagline...

[Knitting A Conundrum]

I got one 000...mostly a case of me being in the right place at the right time when me and one other person were posting...it feels good!

[Monkey Face]

LOL!

Good one!
I'll have to replace mine, soon. I'm getting tired of it. Go figger.

[Monkey Face]

Yah...I like it too, and for a while, on the UT II, I was getting them quite often. Then I couldn't get any, and I think it must have been because of the lag time. Of course, when we moved to the UT III, it was a lot easier.

But I don't even think about it now...much.

[sionnsar]

Comes from another mossback on the WA State board, with permission.

Gotta go away for a few minutes...

[Knitting A Conundrum]

Three hours of celtic followed by medieval would absolutely be worth listening to!

[NicknamedBob]

One of the unusual design aspects of the spider robots is the "panic response." They are designed to curl into a "foetal ball" when sensing an imminent tumble, pulling their legs and arms close in to protect the central electronics and energy storage systems, as well as minimizing damage to the spindly legs.

Bouncing down to the bottom af a steep slope in lunar gravity should not prove excessively damaging, and most would be able to right themselves and climb out again.

Most damage to their arms and legs should be repairable by simply replacing the damaged unit. These actuators are after all, interchangeable. Mechanically, the robots should enjoy a long service life. My primary concern is the battery system. There is no way to predict its longevity under these conditions.

[A CA Guy]

I hope you saved the hair as a nest for your fish...

[Monkey Face]

"...their legs and arms..."

Shouldn't that be "legs and legs?"

*ducking and running*

[Monkey Face]

He's at it again...http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/post?id=1463262%2C122

[sionnsar]

Three hours of celtic followed by medieval would absolutely be worth listening to!

Oh, it is!!!!! And "The Old Country" is like "cultural folk" (a made-up term that includes Celtic), usually very good listening.

[sionnsar]

Last Post?

[NicknamedBob]

The legs and legs, attach at the "equator" of the robot, with the first section having a reverse curve that matches the more or less curved surface of the central section.

When the robot reaches upward, as we would lift our elbow over our head, it can almost touch its elbows together at the top.

The next section, corresponding to our lower arm or leg, is twice the length of the first. This normally curved section can tuck in toward the robot very neatly, and the robot can assume an almost spherical shape, with its "arms" protecting its body.

When fully extended, these legs and arms have a great deal of "reach," being one and a half times the hemi-circumference.

The discussion about the possibility of a fall or tumble has prompted me to incorporate another safety feature. You may recall the Mars Rover "air-bag" landing technique. We will have Carbon-Dioxide operated "air-bags" mounted on the surface of the robot, to be actuated by its "panic response."

Our Gas-Cooled Reactors use Carbon Dioxide preferentially as a coolant and propellant gas, and we will even use the CO₂ tank in the robot as an emergency power source if its battery should fail utterly, and no other means of extracting it is available. This could necessitate waiting until the moon is in its proper phase to supply solar heat for the expanding CO₂ to provide force for the robot's "muscles."