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Potential Republican Crack-Up

Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB

For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.

The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.

I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.

There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.

Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.

So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.

However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.

I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."

At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.

I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.

With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.

This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.

With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."

Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.

With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.

These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.

I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.

I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....

But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.

As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.

Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.

If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.


TOPICS: Politics
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To: Monkey Face

Fascinating if true. Some of the cancer claims seem a bit high, but I can't refute them. Where did the info come from?


2,481 posted on 08/12/2005 5:07:56 PM PDT by Lady Jag (Honor - Dignity - Courage)
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To: Monkey Face
Yah. I most always have a cup of coffee after church on Sundays, and though I've read a cup or two a day is good for one, I often forget. But for me too, it's ice water.

The week is over! It started out fun when I learned that our temp receptionist hails from the same small midwestern city as me. Over the years since my family and I left (1968) I've run into a few people who used to live there, and one who lives there now. But our temp left in 1991 and until now has met nobody from there. She, unlike me, still has family there so she goes back from time to time.

OTOH, I estimate she was born some 4 years after I left, so there were lots of differences for me to learn about (yes, the bandshell's still there but it's not called Central Park anymore, downtown's been revamped and they even have a hotel and convention center, ...). She was quite floored when I came in Tuesday with a map of the place dated 1967!

But after that it was relatively boring, slashing through a bunch of small Things To Do, until early this afternoon when I found in my e-mail, from just before my vacation a month ago, a document I'd agreed to review -- and the review was due today. Mad rush through the afternoon...

I was thinking about taking off a few minutes early with the goodwife to go see "The Great Raid" that just came out, but after the WSJ reviewer panned it today I decided not to. I never go to see movies when they come out anyway; I wait until near the end of their run. (The Passion of the Christ was an exception, but we went to the 10 AM Saturday showing.)

Got some work to do this weekend though. A local city council is looking to pass a stupid feelgood law that's going to hurt them down the road (and others right away), so I have to draft and submit my arguments against to them. And I have a revision of a several years' old study to revise (well) in advance of our legislature's seating next January. And of course there's the ever-present yardwork to be done, and so of course for the weekend it is going to be HOT... (like most Seattleites we don't have air-conditioning).



Is it Monday yet?



How are things by you?

2,482 posted on 08/12/2005 5:08:26 PM PDT by sionnsar (†trad-anglican.faithweb.com† || Trad-Ang Ping: I read the dreck so you don't have to || Iran Azadi)
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To: Tax-chick; Darksheare

Probably with Darks, who is obviously not even lurking at the moment...



2,483 posted on 08/12/2005 5:08:51 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Why did kamikaze pilots wear helmets?)
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To: Harmless Teddy Bear

There are all kinds of alcohols. Same with ethers, esthers, and so forth.

We just have a relationship with alcohol.

Wood alcohol comes from wood. It is used to "denature" grain alcohol, which comes from grain, 'natch!

Then you have isopropyl alcohol, (rubbing alcohol), and on and on up the chain of carbon links.

Grain alcohol may be safely consumed in very moderate amounts. Daily consumption of about an ounce, (one shot), is said to be good for you.


2,484 posted on 08/12/2005 5:09:11 PM PDT by NicknamedBob (Mighty and enduring? They are but toys of the moment to be overturned by the flicking of a finger.)
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To: sionnsar

Wow. I see that some people actually accomplish things!


2,485 posted on 08/12/2005 5:09:53 PM PDT by Tax-chick (Liberals: Too stupid to realize Dick Cheney is the real Dark Lord.)
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To: Monkey Face

I see everyone is typsing rather smoothly, yes. I'm thinking of falling asleep.


2,486 posted on 08/12/2005 5:11:08 PM PDT by Tax-chick (Liberals: Too stupid to realize Dick Cheney is the real Dark Lord.)
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To: queenkathy
Sparkling Water? Hmmm. I never tried it...
Is it carbonated?

That's it! Sometimes flavored, sometimes not. I prefer not.

If the airline offers it, I always ask for it when flying.

2,487 posted on 08/12/2005 5:11:09 PM PDT by sionnsar (†trad-anglican.faithweb.com† || Trad-Ang Ping: I read the dreck so you don't have to || Iran Azadi)
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To: NicknamedBob
Then you have isopropyl alcohol

...which comes from isoprops.

2,488 posted on 08/12/2005 5:12:33 PM PDT by Not A Snowbird (Official RKBA Landscaper and Arborist, Duchess of Green Leafy Things)
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To: sionnsar; All

Gee...nothing as exciting as what you had to tell...:o|

I went and looked at a cute little [940 sq ft] 2 bed, 2 bath "manufactured home" that I really, really want, but I will have to sit on my thumbs until such time as I have been told it's a "go."

I promised Hobbes that we would only move once more, after we got here, and that move would be into our own place...she agreed. ;o]

Of course, I will keep you all aprised as things develop.


2,489 posted on 08/12/2005 5:14:47 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Why did kamikaze pilots wear helmets?)
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To: SandyInSeattle
"I understand there is a product you can add to water now to take away the boredom factor."
Scotch?

"Poblachd Saorsa," (in English, "Free Republic") the best whisky straight from The Official Distillery of the Undead ThreadTM -- best drunk neat.

(That means "without additives", including dihydrogen monoxide.)



2,490 posted on 08/12/2005 5:14:48 PM PDT by sionnsar (†trad-anglican.faithweb.com† || Trad-Ang Ping: I read the dreck so you don't have to || Iran Azadi)
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To: Monkey Face
"Ein bier, bitte!"
I liked it when it was delivered to my door...

I remember milk deliveries to the door, but beer? I grew up in the wrong country! (Or maybe not.)

2,491 posted on 08/12/2005 5:16:19 PM PDT by sionnsar (†trad-anglican.faithweb.com† || Trad-Ang Ping: I read the dreck so you don't have to || Iran Azadi)
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To: sionnsar
I grew up in the wrong country! (Or maybe not.)

I can't even begin to want to consider the taste of beer on Post Toasties!

2,492 posted on 08/12/2005 5:17:32 PM PDT by sionnsar (†trad-anglican.faithweb.com† || Trad-Ang Ping: I read the dreck so you don't have to || Iran Azadi)
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To: sionnsar

Mmmm... do we drink it straight, or use a glass?


2,493 posted on 08/12/2005 5:18:10 PM PDT by Not A Snowbird (Official RKBA Landscaper and Arborist, Duchess of Green Leafy Things)
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To: NicknamedBob
Carbon Tetrachloride??? That's an old drycleaning compound that, I thought, was no longer sold at retail.

I know you can get carbonic acid (soda water) to use for cleaning purposes, and it does a fair job, but where does one come by a family sized can of CCl4 these days?

2,494 posted on 08/12/2005 5:20:33 PM PDT by HKMk23 (GoT tHis sweLl tagline oN eBay qith chngE I fond in meye soFa)
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To: NicknamedBob
I have never "de-bunked" anyone.

I have. A story for another day, though.

2,495 posted on 08/12/2005 5:21:20 PM PDT by sionnsar (†trad-anglican.faithweb.com† || Trad-Ang Ping: I read the dreck so you don't have to || Iran Azadi)
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To: sionnsar

Yah...when we were in Germany, we had beer, wine and soft drinks delivered to our door on a weekly basis. We paid him once a month. It was hard to let that go!

I also understand why so many Germans/Scandanavians/etc., settled in the Pacific Northwest. There was a lot about the country that I liked, and the people that I met were very nice to me.

Perhaps that was because I tried so hard to learn their language. However, in doing so, I learned that a lot of English words have Germanic roots.

If the political atmosphere were different, I would love to go back for a few years. It is not a place I would like to be just now.


2,496 posted on 08/12/2005 5:21:25 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Why did kamikaze pilots wear helmets?)
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To: Monkey Face
~Grin

Sorry hon!

Although I would rather drink hairspray then chicha.

Chicha is a drink made from corn. You grind the fresh corn, put it in a pot and cover with water and leave to ferment.

It wouldn't be bad at all, except that the people making it don't have blenders or anyway of grinding fresh corn other then the old fashion way.

Ewwwww!

2,497 posted on 08/12/2005 5:21:46 PM PDT by Harmless Teddy Bear (When I walk into Sanctuary the band plays "Sweet Home Alabama")
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To: HKMk23

"...I know you can get carbonic acid (soda water) to use for cleaning purposes, and it does a fair job, but where does one come by a family sized can of CCl4 these days?"

Yah! What YOU said!


2,498 posted on 08/12/2005 5:23:12 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Why did kamikaze pilots wear helmets?)
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To: Tax-chick
Wow. I see that some people actually accomplish things!

Yes, but I usually soon come to regret my accomplishments...

2,499 posted on 08/12/2005 5:23:42 PM PDT by sionnsar (†trad-anglican.faithweb.com† || Trad-Ang Ping: I read the dreck so you don't have to || Iran Azadi)
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To: sionnsar

That sounds difficult.


2,500 posted on 08/12/2005 5:24:24 PM PDT by Tax-chick (Liberals: Too stupid to realize Dick Cheney is the real Dark Lord.)
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