Potential Republican Crack-Up

[KMB]

For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.

The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.

I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.

There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.

Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.

So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.

However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.

I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."

At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.

I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.

With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.

This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.

With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."

Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.

With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.

These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.

I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.

I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....

But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.

As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.

Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.

If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.

[fanfan]

Are you getting ton's of rain?

Is it from the hurricanes?

*showing ignorance*

[fanfan]

"Late cat mess"?

I don't know if I want to know. ;-)

PS. Sorry about your cat.

[Monkey Face]

We have been getting rain in the form of "monsoons" which are usually caused by tropical "disturbances" off the Pacific Mexican coast.

It's supposed to be dry next week (the monsoons only last about six weeks, but that's when Tucson gets most of the 12" a year it brags about) and I'm looking forward to the dryer weather.

Other than that, we get a few showers during the rest of the year, but not enough to measure, for the most part.

[Dead Corpse]

Frank Zappa- Nanook Rubs It

(well, right about that time people
A fur-trapper (who was strictly from commercial)
Had the unmitigated audacity to jump up from behind my igloo
(peekaboo) )
And he started into whippin' on my favorite baby seal
With a lead-filled snowshoe)

I said, with a
Lead-
Filled
With a lead filled snowshoe
He said, peekaboo
I said, with a
Lead-
Filled
With a lead filled snowshoe
He said, peekaboo
He went right upside the head of my favorite baby seal
He went whap with a lead-filled snowshoe, and
He hit him on the nose and hit him on the fin, and he
That got me just about as evil as an eskimo boy can be. so I bent down
And I reached down, and I scooped down and I gathered up a generous
Mitten-ful of the deadly yellow snow

The deadly yellow snow, from right there where the huskies go!

Whereupon I proceeded to take that mittenful of the deadly yellow snow
Crystals and rub it all into his beady little eyes with a vigorous
Circular motion hitherto unknown to the people of this area, but destined
To take the place of the mudshark in your mythology
Here it goes,the circular motion, now rub it!

(here fido)

And then
In a fit of anger
I pounced

And I pounced again

Great googly moogly!

I jumped up and down on the chest of the him

I injured
The fur trapper

Well he was very upset, as you can understand
And rightly so, because the
Deadly yellow snow crystals had
Deprived him of his
Sight

And he stood up, and he looked around, and he said

I can't see
I can't see
Oh, woe is me
I can't see

Well.....you know
I can't see
Nothin'

He took a dog-doo snow cone and stuffed it in my right eye
He took a dog-doo snow cone and stuffed it in my other eye
And the husky wee-wee
I mean the doggie wee-wee
Has blinded me
And I can't see
Temporarily

Well, the fur-trapper stood there, with his arms outstretched across the
Frozen white wasteland, trying to figure out what he was going to do about
His deflicted eyes. and it was at that precise moment that he remembered
And ancient eskimo legend, wherein it is written (on whatever it is that
They write it on up there) that if anything bad ever happens to your eyes
As the result of some sort of conflict with anyone named Nanook,
The only way you can get it fixed up is to go

Trudging across the tundra
Mile after mile
Trudging across the tundra

Right down to the parish of st. alphonzo...

[Tax-chick]

Thanks, fanfan. We are, of course, saddened by the death (a couple of weeks ago) of our very elderly cat, but after scrubbing the garage floor on my hands and knees all morning ...

She was not in control of her digestion the last couple of years. At least, that's the charitable excuse for all the "deposits"; I suspect she was also getting even with us for moving again! The cleaning isn't done, but it's much better.

However, she never drove the van, to the best of my knowledge ... although many years ago, she squeezed through a barely-open window into one of the cars, and turned on the windshield wipers and the lights, and drained the battery!

[Monkey Face]

Hiya, HKMk3...

(I really need to find a shorter way to address you...)

What's up?

[Monkey Face]

She was obviously sick for a lot longer than you thought, then. Bless her kitty heart. I'm glad you're not still have "morning sickness" or whatever it is that makes you want to eat ice cream and...cheese puffs?

I would also think that by turning on the wipers and lights, she scared her little self! She probably just wanted a shortcut to the dashboard...LOL!

[Monkey Face]

KEWL! Is that the jist of the statement you couldn't make yesterday?

I actually like Frank Zappa's early works...but where I was living, they were "underground," if you can believe it...;o]

Like LOTR...you couldn't get it through the normal sources.

[Tax-chick]

Ice cream and onion rings. The best are at Dairy Queens in Texas :-).

We still have to move all my husband's Stuff off a couple sets of shelves, move the shelves out, and clean under them, but that can wait for a cooler day. It was almost 100 by the time we finished up this morning, and *humid*.

Got a boy going camping this weekend - I expect he'll have thunderstorms.

[fanfan]

LOL.

That sound vaguely like one of those "The cat did it" stories.

Well, thousands might not believe you, but I do. :-)

[Tax-chick]

Thank you. It's nice to be believed.

[Dead Corpse]

Naw... that woulda been more like Ice-T's Bodycount lyrics.

[fanfan]

Ice cream and onion rings.

Mixed together? Hmmm.

[Monkey Face]

Wow. I like onion rings at Burger King (?) but I haven't tried them with ice cream...maybe I should...just to see how the other half lives. *snort*

Once the humidity sets in, it's hard to do anything that even looks like work. Don't over-do it, OK?

Camping with T-storms, huh? Dang. I used to just LOVE it! I even put out a tree fire during one! Thankfully, the strike was low enough to reach...

[Tax-chick]

Not in the same dish, but at the same time. And Diet Coke.

[Monkey Face]

LOL!

Yah...that works. I can't even go back to that thread...it's too upsetting for me, so I can only think it must be 1000 times worse for you.

[Tax-chick]

It used to rain buckets every time my Dad, brother, and I camped out. After my brother left home, it still rained when it was just Dad and me. They loved us in West Texas!

[Monkey Face]

I lived in West Texas for three years, and all it did the entire time I was there was rain. I think we had maybe three weeks of sun and of those three, on two weeks had low (40%) humidity.

Here, I think 20% is high, and I hate it.

[Chode]

Bitteschon...

[Army Air Corps]

You should be pleased that Tripping the Rift has returned to TV.