Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB
For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.
The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.
I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.
There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.
Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.
So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.
However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.
I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."
At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.
I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.
With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.
This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.
With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."
Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.
With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.
These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.
I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.
I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....
But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.
As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.
Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.
If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.
Oh come on...your mother can't possibly be old enough to have ever seen the REAL Ziegfeld Follies; they were over and done with with the Crash of '29!
I'll make a list for you. The precode talkies of the early '30s are really great movies and though it was "cleaned" up from the original play, you just have to see the original ( there were three remakes, GOD help us ! ) THE WOMEN.
Now THAT sounds quite hystrerical and like a lot of fun. Something akin to THE CROSS EYED BEAR, for OH WHAT A CROSS I BEAR? :-)
My mom's parents... she learned about music & movies
'cause of them. They used to go out dancing to places
that played big band. She says they actually won
competitions too. So she learned about old shows
& stuff by watching things with her mom.
Off topic, but my mom was telling me not too long ago
about TV's that had tubes... & when one died, you'd
take them to a store & there was a machine you'd put
them in one by one & the one that was broken would
make the thing light up so you knew which one to replace....
I've never seen any silent movies. I don't live far from the
area the Gish sisters (not sure which one) filmed some stuff.
Speaking of Gish... You ever see "High Road To China" with Tom
Selleck? His biplanes in the movie are named Dorothy & Lilian.
Yeah, something like that. I even spoofed
"Jabberwocky" by Lewis Carroll (I was very
tired & strange things happen when I'm tired).
We rewrote "Head Games" by Foreigner, "Lady
In Red" by Chris DeBurgh... & a few others.
My parents were exquisite ballroom dancers too. People used to clear the floor, just to watch them dance and often asked if they were professional dancers ( they weren't ), but I don't think they ever won any contests. But they taught me how to dance. It's really a pity that nobody really dances any more/that today's dances are NOT dances at all.
I love silent movies. You really should gives them a try. Anything and EVERYTHING with Lon Chaney is a MUST SEE! INTOLERENCE, GREED, METROPOLIS, THE WIND and THE CABINET OF DR CALLIGATI should top your list.
Oh yes, I remember T.V. sets that had tubes and your mother's description of tube testers is spot on. :-)
I've seen most of Lillian Gish's movies and a few that she made with her sister.
Ummmmmmmmm...no, sorry, I've never seen "HIGH ROAD TO CHINA" .
I don't think my mom was ever really interested in
Vaudville. I think she liked Ziegfeld 'cause there
were elaborate costumes & dancing (mom was a
ballerina when she was younger).
My mom's parents never taught her, but she'd watch
them dance in the livingroom to "Moonlight Serenade"
by Glenn Miller & other stuff.
It's not that I've never wanted to see any, I just
haven't seen any on TV. Very few people even
know any silent star names.
I've never seen such a TV, so I just gave her funny looks.
I've never seen any of their movies, but it was known
one(or both) filmed scenes from a movie in the area I
used to live in.
It's actually a good movie, underrated in my opinion.
Bess Armstrong & Tom Selleck play the main characters.
It also has beautiful music by John Barry. I even like
the biplanes. Then again, I think biplanes are beautiful.
Vaudeville is a very interesting venue and many BIG names played the Vaudeville circuits...Sarah Bernhardt, the Drews and the Barrymores, The Four Cohans, the Marx Brothers, and many names which you've probably never heard of.
TCM shows a silent movie every Sunday night at midnight. Sometimes they do a special thingy and show a bunch of them all at once.
ROTFLOL...I probably know far more names of silent film actors and actresses and directors, than I do modern ones. And it's really a shame that they aren't well known anymore. Quite a lot of them went on to be in talkies, so perhaps more of them are known, than you might surmise.
Oh dear...you're making me feel positively ancient! You gave your mother a "funny look" when she told you about T.V.s with tubes? Goodness only knows what kind of a look you'd give me, if I told you about reel to reel tape machines and I'm talking about taped voices. Or kinescope. LOL
Most movies were made in and around N.Y.C., Queens, and the Palisades, in N.J., when movies were young. They also made movies in Chicago. Then, slowly, the studios moved out to California.
And now I must say good night. Thanks for the lovely chat. :-)
I know of Billie Burke, his widow & a Ziegfeld girl.
Hedy Lamarr was in one of the Ziegfeld movies... I
have some shots from it, she looks lovely.
I know Gypsy Rose Lee started in Vaudville with
her sister "Baby June" Havoc. My mom didn't like
the Marx brothers or the Barrymores, really.
Hmmm, now to remember that...
I know Clara Bow didn't manage to make it 'cause of her
Brooklyn accent... The son of Paramount's producer had
some rude, disrespectful things to say about her too.
I've heard of kinescope, never witnessed it though. My
mom's told me about a number of things I've never seen
or heard for myself.
Actually, this is a small area, there's a pic of (it
may actually be Mary Pickford I'm thinking of)
"her" sitting in front of a building (it still stands).
But since I'm not quite sure if it was one of the
Gish sisters or Mary Pickford, I don't know
where to look for the pic.
Anyway... goodnight.
Morning all!
Raistlin Majere
An intensely private individual that chooses actions with care, you strive to further your own skills and powers.
This happens because I choose it to happen!
Raistlin is a character in the Dragonlance universe.
LOL!
(Wish it was an actual book, would make for pretty hysterical skits in troll threads.)
Hmmm..
Pitch = Tar
Tar = Asphalt
Asphalt = Paving
Paving = Crushed trolls.
I think we just came up with the troll punishment version of "Rock - Paper - Scissors".
Why "under Asphalt"?
Good morning, and welcome!
then call the RKBA Crew fast!!!
Welcome to the Crew...
welcome to da crew...
Welcome aboard!
Type O Negative- The Green Man
Spring won't come, the need of strife
To struggle to be freed from hard ground
The evening mists that creep and crawl
Will drench
in the dew
and so drown
I'm the green man
The green man
Sol in prime sweet summertime
Cast shadows of doubt on my face
A midday sun, it's caustic hues
Refracting
within
the still lake
Autumn in her flaming dress
Of orange, brown, gold fallen leaves
My mistress of the frigid night
I worship
pray to
on my knees
Winter's breath of filthy snow
Befrosted paths to the unknown
Have my lips turned true purple
Life is coming to an end
So says me, me wiccan friend
Nature coming full circle
I'm the green man
The green man
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