I believe Putin ran the Belsan thing in Chechneya and basically runs al Queda

Iran's Nuclear Option, AJ Venter | 2-22-05 | strategofr

[strategofr]

I am simply cross-posting a message I just put up on strategypage.com. The story behind the message is, there is a good guy named Sentinnel28a who slammed me pretty good and I lost track of the thread, but then found it and responded. You can see his thread in quotes, all broken up, inside my post. Hello everyone, especially badray and his buddy whose freeper name I forget. By the way, I am plain "stratego" on strategypage.com, but that was taken here so I added the "fr", free republic.

Here's the thread:

Glad I found this thread. Been meaning to reply to it but did not want to recently as I was in a "low energy" state due to work stress.

First, I want to thank you Sent and Bob, for taking the time to respond to my comment, while many would not bother due to the apparent "flakiness" of my stance.

"Conspiracy theory. While I wouldn't put it past Putin to "arrange" Beslan, I think it is more probable that the Chechens did this themselves."

This sounds hopeful to me. You seem to be saying there is a possibility that Putin set it up. Let me ask you specifically. Do the circumstances arouse supsicion in your mind. How could terrorists have broken through the cordon? Are the Spetnaz that incompetent? The only similar story I recall is Saudi Arabia (and we know how conflicted they are about terrorism.)

Remember, there was widespread suspicion in Russia that Putin set up previous Chechyen incidents. You caught those references in the press, didn't you? the only reason nothing like that dribbles out now may be Putin's tighter grip on the press.

"What terrorist group targets children? All of them. Hamas has seen no problem with targeting pizzerias, there were certainly children killed on the airliners on 9/11, and even Timothy McVeigh parked his rent-a-bomb next to the nursery in the Murrah building. By seizing children, the Chechens expected to get concessions--but to a fanatic, a Russian child is just going to grow up to become a Russian soldier. The Germans used the same excuse to execute partisans or those suspected of being such, children included."

Here, I confess limited knowlege. Bob's point on Palestinian's pointing rifles at infants and firing counts here along with yours. I still feel that so far, my point may hold. I'd be happy to get more details on the "pizzerias", in terms of their clientell. But even so, I feel that it was probably less a clera cut symbolic attack on "children" than a scool attack. And McVeigh seems to be a nearly lone actor, so he may be somewhat exceptional.

Of course, I realize that terrororists like to kill children and kill a lot of them and certainly never try to avoid it. That is not my point. My point is that the deliberate targeting of children is nonetheless a new level of sickening-ness, and it adds to my supsicions here.

"I think this is just plain fearmongering, and maybe even an unconscious desire to want to believe some world-spanning conspiracy is behind 9/11. No one wants to admit that some "ignorant camel-jockeys" like Osama pulled off the most successfully gruesome attack on American soil in our history. It has to be someone else more sophisticated, more like our traditional enemies--for some people, the Russians; for others, like Michael Moore, George W. Bush."

I can see why you might think those are my motives, but it comes from a different direction. An overview of my reasoning goes like this.

1) the Soviets created 20th century terrorism, for the most part, at least post-Algeria. I don't know if you agree with this or not. If you agree, this means that up to 1990-1, they held the reins. I figure, why let them go, if you are gues like Putin and his former KGB colleagues and you run the Russian gov't. What do you think Putin & friends spend all day doing, economic policy? I figure they work the stuff they were trained for and spend their working lives on.

2) For example, people assumed that Russian spying would tail off after the Cold War was over. But separate reports from Britain and the US indicate Russian spying now equals or exceeds Cold War levels. The spying is feeding their for-profit arms sales. In my opinion, it is also helping terrorists (you must admit, such information would be useful to terrorists in many cases.)

3) Arms sales are very important to Russia's economy.(Iran's Nuclear Option, AJ Venter, Casemate, 2005, p. 304) "In other words, Russia has become the largest exporter of convenional arms since 2001 (responsible for 36 percent of all global arms transfers in 2002.)" If asked, I can give you the footnote on this one.

Terrorism "stirs the pot" and improves the overall market for Russian arms sales.

4) Look at Russia's relationship to Iran. p. 207, same source. "There are those who believe that the Shabab-3---the same missle that was fired more than a thousand miles in early 2004---to be no more than aninterim measureand that teheran's focus will now be concentrated on the Shabab-4 with its longer range and larger payload capacity. Unlike its predecessor, the Shabab-4 is a product of exclusively Russian ballistic missle technology and, by all accounts, it's development is expected to be completed within two to three years."

I need not go into the details of Russian involvement with nuclear technology, as this tends to be well known right now. Venter develops the thesis that Russia's involvement with Iran is motivated by a desire for cash, and the money is big. But I think in this case, even the Russians must be considering the geopolitical side. One aspect of which is that they are providing the greatest overt supporters of terrorism on earth with the means to place nukes in the hands of terrorists. They are also providing the means for Iran to possibly deter a conventional US attack (via the combination of nukes and ICBMs, not too far off.) This doesn't prove Russian involvement with terrorism, but it disproves the idea that they "oppose" it.

"Finally, since AQ seems to be having its ass handed to them since October 2001, it doesn't say much for the FSS' competence."

You might mean the FSB here. If I am in error, please explain my mistake to me. I'm not saying Putin is going to worry about what happens to al Queda, nor do I believe he micromanages it. Even I will admit that would be overly dangerous for him. If he is exerting control, it is via occassional information exchanges, done by such methods as arresting the Egyptian terrorist who used to be oriented toward Egyptian targets but, since his release by the Russians, has become a top al Queda operative. (sorry, I can't remember the name.) If al Queda is not controlled by the Russians, why tolerate this guy who seems to be a Russian mole? I think he's acted as a messenger boy. Sure, its elaborate, but its SOP for spies when dealing in delicate situations.

And no argument, Putin is doing that. But he's KGB, man. He lives for this kind of stuff.

Putin is no friend of the US, but even he wouldn't go so far as sponsoring AQ or a 9/11 like attack. The stakes are too high, and include his own hide.

Final word to Bob. Cheer up. Goss, in charge of the CIA now, is supposed to be the best man for the job, accoding to a guy I met in DC over the weekend who knows numerous CIA people. (It was at CPAC, a public-accessible event. I am not a person with any "access.) Condi is kicking butt at state and will soon turn the direction of State around. And if George can just set it up so the Iraqi army can take over completely inside Iraq (except for the border) by 9/2008, Hillary will lose and we will have another Republican President. George Allen for president.

[MEG33]

I believe is a far cry from "I have the facts, the proof".

[strategofr]

Yes. I have no proof.

[Petronski]

[MEG33]

I believe you have been paged.

[MEG33]

I am busy getting out my latest tin foil fashion apparel..My hat is to die for.

[cripplecreek]

I BELIEVE John Kerry will be inaugurated in oh I don't lets say July.

[dog breath]

While I believe Putin is a troublesome opportunist, this goes too far in slandering him. Simple explanations are often more correct then elaborate conspiracy theories. Please don't portray him as the evil Dr No, super villain. While he is often a pain in American's back side and I am no fan of his, I don't buy the evil genius idea.

[GarySpFc]

I am a former demolition expert on a Special Forces A-Team. I have read the conspiracy theory posts that the KGB blew up the apartment buildings, was responsible for the massacres at the Moscow theater Beslan.
I want to say all of this is nonsense, and on the level of a man claiming he is a poached egg.
Firstly, the report of the KGB blowing up the apartment buildings included one where the KGB members were caught putting sugar looking RDX explosive in an apartment building. RDX does not look anything like sugar, and so I count that report as fantasy.
Secondly, the Moscow theater rescue was handled almost as well as could be expected. Rescuing the hostages in the theater where two huge artillery shells had been electronically wired to explode was an almost impossible to win situation.
Thirdly, the Beslan school massacre was similar. The terrorists had wired artillery shells to explode electronically. One was attached to a basketball goal, and later exploded when it accidentally fell setting off the final chain of events.

In all military operations the unexpected happens, and these operations were no different on either side. While the Russian military did not execute their plans perfectly in Moscow or Beslan, they did do a decent job.
We have several individuals on Free Republic who are conspiracy theorists, and live and breathe the evil Russia, KGB, and Putin. I include TapTheSource as a complete basket case looking for a conspiracy in every newspaper, rag, novel, and comic book to back his wild ideas. Putin, Russia, and the FSB have their faults, weaknesses, and a few bad eggs, but they are not the evil beings these nuts make them out to be in their posts.

[dog breath]

That was a sane response, it is a little hard to figure out how to respond to a wild theory. I thought the baseball with the nuts sticking out was a good humorous answer. While I question Putin's motives, I feel that he has done nothing to deserve such a ugly slander against his name.

[GarySpFc]

May I suggest reading The Accidental Autocrat. It's a long read, but you will have a good understanding of Putin once you are finished.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1347197/posts

[MarMema]

There are meds available for those who need them. It's a shame that we aren't doing a better job helping those in need.
And I only read the title.

[strategofr]

Your post is very interesting. I never heard any of that information and you sound credible.

Could you expand a little about how you think it is reasonable that terrorists broke out of the cordon around Belsan? Do you believe the same thing could happen in the US, given that we had a few days or more (as I recall) to set up the perimeter and would bring our best people there?

Would you characterize the Belsan operation as a major blunder, analogous to Waco? (which itself could be used as a support for your thesis---things go wrong.)

I am not a person who finds a lot of conspiracies about in the world. This is my only one. (Not that that, in itself, refutes the people who think I'm "nuts".) However, I do see the influence of the Russian KGB in the world (how I refer to Putin and his friends) as extensive (realizing that many operations would be transferred to the FSB, but not all, I believe.)

One thing in my "favor", is that the myth of "helpful Russia" is dissolving in view of their involvement with Iran. For example, p. 306, Iran's Nuclear Option (not a nut case book, but well-footnoted (I have 2 footnotes for this if you'd like):

"Further arguments appeared when reports surfaced in early 1998 that the Russian FSB was in fact coordinating clandestine missile technology transfers to the Iranians---allegations denied by Russian officials. The Russian-along with Russian supplied aircraft---to provide reliable carriers for potential nuclear warheads. Furthermore, the mere existence of of the Shahib-3 missile program, with its relatively poor accuracy (Circle of error Probable 1-3 kms over distance) implies that it is most likely meant to carry a strictly WMD payload. Moscow has always declared that no infringements of the MCTR have been committed, but did admit the existence of "individual contacts" between Iranian and Russian entities. Through it all, the Russians refuse to be shut out of the lucrative market of missile technologies."

On the other side of the leger (providing the other motive for Russian involvement with the Iranian nuclear program) are the unbelievable financial rewards, especially for a country as poor as Russia.

p. 308, same source (footnote also available):

"In defiance of U.S. pressure, Russia declared in July 2002 that it will finish construction of the $840 million nuclear reactor in Bushehr, and that it plans to build five more reactors over the next decade (another in Bushehr and four in Ahvaz, 40 miles from Terran), for an additional $10 billion." (!)

You don't have to think the Russians are behind al Queada to realize they are, along with the Chinese, our no. 1 enemies in the world today. Their actions in Iran constitute massive indirect support for terrorism, in my opinion.

[strategofr]

Well, aren't you glad my title was clear enough to save you the time of reading further?

[unspun]

"I believe Putin ran the Belsan thing in Chechneya and basically runs al Queda"

Isn't that a line from a Steve Martin monologue?

[nopardons]

Ping the RKBA list,we have some paving to do here.

[King Prout]

Ping the RKBA list,we have some paving to do here.

we, the RKBA, cannot pave here yet; but, as many of the RKBA are also VKS, I shall summon lightning and nuclear fire.

and kitties... lots of kitties...

HAMMER OF THE GODS WILL DRIVE OUR SHIPS TO NEW LANDS...

(You know the tune, so crank it up and get down with the flashbangery)

[Conspiracy Guy]

[nopardons]

Thanks,King! :-)

[Conspiracy Guy]