Posted on 02/22/2005 4:17:49 AM PST by strategofr
I am simply cross-posting a message I just put up on strategypage.com. The story behind the message is, there is a good guy named Sentinnel28a who slammed me pretty good and I lost track of the thread, but then found it and responded. You can see his thread in quotes, all broken up, inside my post. Hello everyone, especially badray and his buddy whose freeper name I forget. By the way, I am plain "stratego" on strategypage.com, but that was taken here so I added the "fr", free republic.
Here's the thread:
Glad I found this thread. Been meaning to reply to it but did not want to recently as I was in a "low energy" state due to work stress.
First, I want to thank you Sent and Bob, for taking the time to respond to my comment, while many would not bother due to the apparent "flakiness" of my stance.
"Conspiracy theory. While I wouldn't put it past Putin to "arrange" Beslan, I think it is more probable that the Chechens did this themselves."
This sounds hopeful to me. You seem to be saying there is a possibility that Putin set it up. Let me ask you specifically. Do the circumstances arouse supsicion in your mind. How could terrorists have broken through the cordon? Are the Spetnaz that incompetent? The only similar story I recall is Saudi Arabia (and we know how conflicted they are about terrorism.)
Remember, there was widespread suspicion in Russia that Putin set up previous Chechyen incidents. You caught those references in the press, didn't you? the only reason nothing like that dribbles out now may be Putin's tighter grip on the press.
"What terrorist group targets children? All of them. Hamas has seen no problem with targeting pizzerias, there were certainly children killed on the airliners on 9/11, and even Timothy McVeigh parked his rent-a-bomb next to the nursery in the Murrah building. By seizing children, the Chechens expected to get concessions--but to a fanatic, a Russian child is just going to grow up to become a Russian soldier. The Germans used the same excuse to execute partisans or those suspected of being such, children included."
Here, I confess limited knowlege. Bob's point on Palestinian's pointing rifles at infants and firing counts here along with yours. I still feel that so far, my point may hold. I'd be happy to get more details on the "pizzerias", in terms of their clientell. But even so, I feel that it was probably less a clera cut symbolic attack on "children" than a scool attack. And McVeigh seems to be a nearly lone actor, so he may be somewhat exceptional.
Of course, I realize that terrororists like to kill children and kill a lot of them and certainly never try to avoid it. That is not my point. My point is that the deliberate targeting of children is nonetheless a new level of sickening-ness, and it adds to my supsicions here.
"I think this is just plain fearmongering, and maybe even an unconscious desire to want to believe some world-spanning conspiracy is behind 9/11. No one wants to admit that some "ignorant camel-jockeys" like Osama pulled off the most successfully gruesome attack on American soil in our history. It has to be someone else more sophisticated, more like our traditional enemies--for some people, the Russians; for others, like Michael Moore, George W. Bush."
I can see why you might think those are my motives, but it comes from a different direction. An overview of my reasoning goes like this.
1) the Soviets created 20th century terrorism, for the most part, at least post-Algeria. I don't know if you agree with this or not. If you agree, this means that up to 1990-1, they held the reins. I figure, why let them go, if you are gues like Putin and his former KGB colleagues and you run the Russian gov't. What do you think Putin & friends spend all day doing, economic policy? I figure they work the stuff they were trained for and spend their working lives on.
2) For example, people assumed that Russian spying would tail off after the Cold War was over. But separate reports from Britain and the US indicate Russian spying now equals or exceeds Cold War levels. The spying is feeding their for-profit arms sales. In my opinion, it is also helping terrorists (you must admit, such information would be useful to terrorists in many cases.)
3) Arms sales are very important to Russia's economy.(Iran's Nuclear Option, AJ Venter, Casemate, 2005, p. 304) "In other words, Russia has become the largest exporter of convenional arms since 2001 (responsible for 36 percent of all global arms transfers in 2002.)" If asked, I can give you the footnote on this one.
Terrorism "stirs the pot" and improves the overall market for Russian arms sales.
4) Look at Russia's relationship to Iran. p. 207, same source. "There are those who believe that the Shabab-3---the same missle that was fired more than a thousand miles in early 2004---to be no more than aninterim measureand that teheran's focus will now be concentrated on the Shabab-4 with its longer range and larger payload capacity. Unlike its predecessor, the Shabab-4 is a product of exclusively Russian ballistic missle technology and, by all accounts, it's development is expected to be completed within two to three years."
I need not go into the details of Russian involvement with nuclear technology, as this tends to be well known right now. Venter develops the thesis that Russia's involvement with Iran is motivated by a desire for cash, and the money is big. But I think in this case, even the Russians must be considering the geopolitical side. One aspect of which is that they are providing the greatest overt supporters of terrorism on earth with the means to place nukes in the hands of terrorists. They are also providing the means for Iran to possibly deter a conventional US attack (via the combination of nukes and ICBMs, not too far off.) This doesn't prove Russian involvement with terrorism, but it disproves the idea that they "oppose" it.
"Finally, since AQ seems to be having its ass handed to them since October 2001, it doesn't say much for the FSS' competence."
You might mean the FSB here. If I am in error, please explain my mistake to me. I'm not saying Putin is going to worry about what happens to al Queda, nor do I believe he micromanages it. Even I will admit that would be overly dangerous for him. If he is exerting control, it is via occassional information exchanges, done by such methods as arresting the Egyptian terrorist who used to be oriented toward Egyptian targets but, since his release by the Russians, has become a top al Queda operative. (sorry, I can't remember the name.) If al Queda is not controlled by the Russians, why tolerate this guy who seems to be a Russian mole? I think he's acted as a messenger boy. Sure, its elaborate, but its SOP for spies when dealing in delicate situations.
And no argument, Putin is doing that. But he's KGB, man. He lives for this kind of stuff.
Putin is no friend of the US, but even he wouldn't go so far as sponsoring AQ or a 9/11 like attack. The stakes are too high, and include his own hide.
Final word to Bob. Cheer up. Goss, in charge of the CIA now, is supposed to be the best man for the job, accoding to a guy I met in DC over the weekend who knows numerous CIA people. (It was at CPAC, a public-accessible event. I am not a person with any "access.) Condi is kicking butt at state and will soon turn the direction of State around. And if George can just set it up so the Iraqi army can take over completely inside Iraq (except for the border) by 9/2008, Hillary will lose and we will have another Republican President. George Allen for president.
Thanks.
Thanks. Your posts make sense. I am mulling over info from you and others on Beslan. But it does sound odd to me that parents were inside the perimeter with rifles, and speaks to a lack of appropriate control, in my opinion.
I find your Bora Bora analysis interesting in regards to Bora Bora, but it should not apply, it seems to me, to the perimeter of a school. Perhaps I am still missing something, though. In addition to the perimeter being much smaller, terrain should be flat around a school. In addition, the time frame indicates the Spetznaz should have been in place at the crisis point, not moving forward as in Bora Bora.
Nonetheless, I understand you are working by general analogy, and, as you say, the terrorists had a long time to plan and think about the school, and every feature therein---the Spetznaz had a short time.
I made a "tactical blunder" myself when I made my post, essentially not understanding the vast difference between Free Republic and Strategy Page (my main previous experience) in terms of size and how that affects the whole posting experience.
However, I am OK with the way things turned out.
My initial post was on a subject I knew little of, which led people to think I don't know much. That is not true, as I have already begun to prove on this thread, but it may be that no one will notice the information I have posted.
While the way I did it was the result of a mistake, it resulted in a steep learning curve and an interesting thread for all.
Thanks much for your thoughtful and informed replies and not assuming I am an idiot. In this case, a single person's (your) response had a positive emotional impact on me very disproportionate to its numerical weight.
The pancakes thing is just a way of saying "I have no idea what you are talking about, so here is something else that doesn't really make sense."
Thanks.
LOL!
(Click image below to view)
Thanks. I like the term viking kitties. One thing I've come to realize as a result of this. I'm a talker and a writer when it comes to politics. From now on, I'm skimming over the product of the "graphic arts" crowd.
Tahnks for the tip. I'll have to think about my attitude toward this particular "rule." The truth is, I don't have a feel for the FR site yet. On Strategy Page, I usually post on someone else's thread, but I do sometimes start my own. I certainly agree that people who are always starting threads are a drag. On the other hand, I believe I have as much right to do it as anyone else does.
Certainly, I have to reflect somewhat on my experiences from this first thread, and I really appreciate your attempt to be helpful in that regard.
Yeah!
Sorry but that's BS. The West are the ones who actually supported most of the Fundimentalism, who do you think fought the Soviets in Afghanistan and then became the Taliban? A wayward band of boy scouts. The soviets supported communists and socialists, who did use terrorism (the early israelies were also socialists and also used terrorism to get rid of the British) but they were not Jihaders. The PLO and Yasser were never religious, neither were the communists who took power in Iraq. The Baathists, Saddam and his two predicessors were put in place by the CIA to remove the Communists, and were themselves Socialists.
Ion Pacepa does not "BS"
Was a general in the intelligence service of the most oppressive government of the Soviet alliance. He for 30 years helped propt up the worst dictator since Stalin. He saw the writing on the wall and "defected" and did not get put up agains the wall like Cicko and his wife and the other bosses. He has also never stood trial for his crimes against humanity. Nice choice of sources. Next you'll be quoting Golytsin.
That is why 3 Chechins were killed by the crowds, one was shot, one hung and one beaten to death. A suicide biatch was shot as she was walking into a field hospital, before she could blow herself up.
Your suggestions on much of this is disgusting beyond all belief. One of my best friends, in Moscow, a former spetznaz officer, with whom I had the pleasure and honor of working in Bosnia, lost one of his best friends who was a commando in the Omega Force (equal to our Delta Force). These men put their bodies between the Islamics and the children.
You comments and paranoia is sick and disgusting and coming from a person who spent 12 years of his life serving this great nation, you do us no favor and are no patriot.
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