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To: strategofr
I find your Bora Bora analysis interesting in regards to Bora Bora, but it should not apply, it seems to me, to the perimeter of a school. Perhaps I am still missing something, though. In addition to the perimeter being much smaller, terrain should be flat around a school. In addition, the time frame indicates the Spetznaz should have been in place at the crisis point, not moving forward as in Bora Bora.

The point I was making is that while it appears the Russians were dunces in letting some of the terrorists evade capture at Beslan, it was highly likely the terrorists had well executed plans in place prior to the assault. Urban warfare is different, but there are always ways for terrorists to escape with careful planning. The fact that you do not see a way is what made it successful.

Nonetheless, I understand you are working by general analogy, and, as you say, the terrorists had a long time to plan and think about the school, and every feature therein---the Spetznaz had a short time.

Exactly correct!
132 posted on 02/23/2005 9:39:32 AM PST by GarySpFc (Sneakypete, De Oppresso Liber)
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To: GarySpFc
OK. I will present my analysis, then address my fear.

Beslan possibilities for escape:

1)existing tunnels. This would include:
a)service tunnels or pipes with a service accessory. Use: escape for all.
b) a pipe big enough for an average man to crawl through. Use: pipe would be blocked at the entry end, provided with entry and exit holes and used for escape of all.
c) a pipe big enough for women or small men to crawl through. Use: Escape for some. Escape for people to cause a diversion.
d) a pipe big enough for a child to crawl through. Use: Escape to cause a diversion.
e) the terrorists could dig a tunnel.
f) the terrorists could penetrate the Spetnaz and thus get some incredibly stupid thing authorized, such as allowing parents armed with rifles inside the perimeter.
g) the terrorists could penetrate the civilian controller on site (assuming there is such); purpose the same as (f.)
h) the terrorists could secrete a person near the site, such as inside a piece of equipment like a transformer, phone connection point, etc. The person would need to be well concealed to avoid the Spetznaz search. At the appropriate time, the person could attack the Spetnaz forces from the rear.
i) the site could be analyzed to determine a surprising line of cover leading to an exit from the cordon. This line of cover could be utilized to escape in a firefight.
j) the site could be analyzed vis a vis (i), but then altered in subtle ways (undetected by Spetznaz) to enhance the cover on the line of exit.
k) the terrorists could surprise the Spetznaz by having unexpected tools, including possibly teargas and smoke.
l) the terrorists could stage a diversion outside the perimeter, timed with a breakout.
m) some terrorists could mount motorcycles for a surprisingly fast breakout.
n) the terrorists could simultaneously employ a number of top level sharpshooters (which would be a surprise.)
o) the terrorists could surprise the Spetznaz by combining some of the above strategies, maybe combined with a conventional "combined arms strategy."

My fear is that I'm so "smart" ;) that I will inadvertently say something to aid the terrorists. But come to think of it, you being a professional, if I started going in that direction, you would send me a private post.
138 posted on 02/24/2005 3:39:05 AM PST by strategofr
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