Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
New York, Feb 2 -
To:
Team Rudy
From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:
February 2, 2007
Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.
Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.
Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:
|
State |
Mayor Giuliani |
Closest Competitor |
Source |
| California | 33% | 19% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 11-17 |
| Florida | 30% | 16% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 4-9 |
| Illinois | 33% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-14 |
| Michigan | 34% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 4-7 |
| Nevada | 31% | 25% (McCain) | ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06 |
| New Jersey | 39% | 21% (McCain) | Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22 |
| North Carolina | 34% | 26% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-15 |
| Ohio | 30% | 22% (McCain) | Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28 |
| Pennsylvania | 35% | 25% (McCain) | ARG Jan. 4-8 |
| Texas | 28% | 26% (McCain) | Baselice Jan. 17-21 |
Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.
Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.
..each camp has their mantras--everyone is just passionate for their guy...
Unless it's the Freeper poll with Hunter in the lead - then it's gospel!
I use the first person somewhat figuratively. I'm not a mover in the party, and the nominee will probably be all but decided by the time my state holds the presidential primary. But I think "taking the pledge" on judicial nominees would earn Giuliani significant creds with the base.
See Post 50 and 113.
I didn't say any of those things, I believe he was invited to give a speech at the 2002 commencement. If the military thought you were a jerk you wouldn't be invited I am sure.
Sounds about right. :-)
Oh, COME ON NOW. That's utterly ridiculous.
The real question is, to what extent does FR dwell on the various factual negatives of the candidates?
I have no problem with posts about Hunter's involvement in the House bank scandal - he was in deep.
And he did vote for certain GOP initiatives that I disagreed with. I might debate the rationale for the votes, but I cannot dispute that they cast doubt on Hunter's bona fide conservative credentials.
I only ask that the debates be based on fact and not nonsense.
I dunno. Will the "true" conservatives leave their "compounds" that long?
I didn't say being a great speaker is the criteria for running for President or for being the nominee. I was responding to Doc who said that Rudy has a speech impediment. Its like you Rudy people to read into things that aren't there and take things out of context and put it into a context that serves your purposes.
Ah, so now you are comparing your opponents to Branch Davidians?
All we want is for people to listen to Rudy when he campaigns first before making any decisions.
Even though a large number of his past positions are quite offensive to a lot of conservatives? Speaking style has no meaning when it is based on a platform that has no meaning to certain audiences.
Yeah, and the primaries are not even close for this level of vitriol. I read the Hunter threads when I see them, because I'm not familiar with him or his views. I have not even begun to make a final decision on voting in the primaries. I will vote R in the general election. No more third party disasters for me!
Areafiftyone didn't say anything about Rudy's speaking style. There you go again.
That's because you are closedminded.
Calling him a cross dresser is factual? Come on, you know better than that.
The same goes with the military.
I used to have a battalion CO from NJ. Anytime I spoke with him, he blathered on about how great Bill Bradley was and what a great president he would make. I was a captive audience who couldn't stand hearing about how great my CO thought this liberal scumbag was.
Those poor guys at West Point in the photo are either liberal new yorkers themselves, or they felt compelled to at least feign respect and admiration for liberal RINO, RINO-rudy.
Sometimes, especially in the military, you've got to do what your superiors want you to do, no matter how disgusting and/or painful.
Listening to the candidates is step one in making an informed final decision we can live with.
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