Rudy and the Republican Nomination

http://www.joinrudy2008.com/News/DocumentPrint.aspx?DocumentID=19580 ^ | 2 Feb 2007 | Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director

[PhiKapMom]

Rudy and the Republican Nomination

New York, Feb 2 -

To:	Team Rudy
From:	Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:	February 2, 2007
Re:	Rudy and the Republican Nomination

Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.

Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.

According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:

• 70% of independents are favorable,
• 70% of 35-44 year olds,
• 74% of married women,
• 73% of households married with children,
• 52% of minority voters

The Mayor also enjoys strong approval among white evangelical Christians (76%) and self-described conservative Republicans (82%).

In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”

In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.

The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.

Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:

State	Mayor Giuliani	Closest Competitor	Source
California	33%	19% (Gingrich)	ARG - Jan. 11-17
Florida	30%	16% (Gingrich)	ARG - Jan. 4-9
Illinois	33%	24% (McCain)	ARG - Jan. 11-14
Michigan	34%	24% (McCain)	ARG - Jan. 4-7
Nevada	31%	25% (McCain)	ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06
New Jersey	39%	21% (McCain)	Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22
North Carolina	34%	26% (McCain)	ARG - Jan. 11-15
Ohio	30%	22% (McCain)	Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28
Pennsylvania	35%	25% (McCain)	ARG Jan. 4-8
Texas	28%	26% (McCain)	Baselice Jan. 17-21

Conclusion
Recent polling continues to suggest Mayor Giuliani is very well positioned within the party – particularly when compared to other potential Republican candidates – to win the nomination.

Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.

Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.

[Howlin]

Sorry, I don't put much credence in people who vote for one kind of candidate while pushing others to vote differently.

Come to the real world.

[Hydroshock]

Rudy is as big a wolve (liberal) as Hitlary.

[Hydroshock]

I will vote as I see fit.

[Delphinium]

he may run as an independent if not nominated.

And they'll be right with him.

[Howlin]

So we've seen. LOL.

[Mo1]

Bull

Rudy may not be my top pick .. but he is not like Hellary ... not even close

[Hydroshock]

I do not thing Hitlary will make it through the rat primaries.

[Hydroshock]

If Rudy McRomney get the nod I most likely will go Constitution Party.

[Mo1]

Doesn't matter if she does or doesn't

I will never throw my country to the wolves in the General Election out of a protest

Only a FOOL would do that

My country is to important to me to ever allow that to happen

[Mo1]

WOW .. what a shocker / s>

[Hydroshock]

I care for our country as well. That is why I do not vote for a liberal in someting like this, no matter the party.

[Howlin]

Why don't you go third party now? You're wasting a lot of time here when you could be working from within your OWN party.

[Hydroshock]

There are still many conservatives to support. There is a bette chance of gettign a conservative from the rep party. But if they more to the left then I go third party. I place principle over party.

[Howlin]

I place country over my principles.

[Mo1]

bull

[b9]

If Rudy McRomney get the nod I most likely will go Constitution Party.

Oh dear.

I know too many who voted for Perot and to this day, feel guilty for allowing Clinton to win.

How could you live with yourself?

[Mo1]

Do us all a favor and go now

[Delphinium]

I understand what you are saying about voting third party if someone like Rudy won the nomination.

I'd be so shocked and sick, but I am not ready for a third party.

Thats why I am trying to convince people not to go there, because of voters like you. Because when they start going, they might not come back.

Course I don't think some of these care, they keep telling the pro-life conservatives to leave the party. I am sure they think if we are gone, they will attract more democrats and liberals that think more like they do.

In the last congression race I worked, the primary was very full, and heated. The press and moderates, and even "those third party folks", in the party were trying to stop the "real true blue tested conservative" After he won big, they still can't believe it. Then they started saying "he can't win the general, bla bla bla, and insulting him the whole way. Some voted for the extreme liberal democrat. He WON BIG! Now he is the freshman class president. YEAH!

And guess what? I am still hearing crap from the poor loser pro-abortion bunch in the party.

I'll work hard as I always do to get "conservatives" elected.

[Delphinium]

I most likely will go Constitution Party

they have lots of problems too. And so far no viability.

And I still believe the Republican party is the best party, just don't let the( can't think of a better word) RINOs, chase you away.

[PhiKapMom]

HS -- Do I have to keep posting this or would you please put on a disclaimer? You stated you left the Republican Party and became an Indy and now if what I am reading is true you want to be pandered to and you are not a Republican? Some folks don't seem to understand the difference between pandering and honest politicians that tell it like it is.

Senators Inhofe and Coburn don't pander to voters -- what you see is what you get. Rudy hasn't tried to hide who he is either and why I support those kind of candidates. Any group that wants to be pandered to needs a reality check because there are too many important issues of today to pander to a group that threatens to stay home and not vote!