Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
New York, Feb 2 -
To:
Team Rudy
From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:
February 2, 2007
Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.
Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.
Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:
|
State |
Mayor Giuliani |
Closest Competitor |
Source |
| California | 33% | 19% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 11-17 |
| Florida | 30% | 16% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 4-9 |
| Illinois | 33% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-14 |
| Michigan | 34% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 4-7 |
| Nevada | 31% | 25% (McCain) | ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06 |
| New Jersey | 39% | 21% (McCain) | Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22 |
| North Carolina | 34% | 26% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-15 |
| Ohio | 30% | 22% (McCain) | Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28 |
| Pennsylvania | 35% | 25% (McCain) | ARG Jan. 4-8 |
| Texas | 28% | 26% (McCain) | Baselice Jan. 17-21 |
Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.
Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.
Yep.
I look at those fools over at DU and notice that they are openly saying that they are holding their noses and voting for Hillary. I thought they would be more splintered.
Instead, it is we who are splintered!
Do you consider Rudy to be a conservative?
L
You are correct.
I am not anti-Hunter. I think most of us are not.
It's just that he is not going to get any traction.
Nothing to me seems more important for 2008. Too much of this country believes that if we are just nicer, then so will be the enemy. That is the one thing that has me most interested in Rudy. He understands the enemy, he understands history.
We need a renewed voice that can reach the largest audience, not somebody to sing to the choir.
I stood up for Romney too, but much of that has abated, for the nonce.
Oh.............I should have known better. :-(
LOL
As long as it's civil, which you are, I'm up for any discussion with you, which is WHY I asked you to point out where I am wrong.
I guess it's good for candidates to have early supporters, but I just can't lend my support until after the first of the candidate debates.
I welcome a full field of GOP candidates wherein good ideas are brought forth for debate and lousy ideas are refuted.
I knew it was going to get out of control. The CNBC anchor immediately started twisting and distorting President Bush's remarks, with the aid of the AP wire on her laptop computer next to her. Thankfully her panel paid more attention to the speech and disagreed with her every word. She ended the discussion right after she went "around the horn". LOL
I figured you would as well.
Thanks,
L
We must defeat the democrat nominee and every other democrat possible.
You've bought yourself a full time job...lol.
That's how I am looking at it, and I am comparing each one's ideas alongside the most important issues facing this country, and judging on the merits who is the most qualified of the whole bunch.
If you have not read it, you should definitely read "Londonistan."
It is one of the scariest books I've read and all it tells me is that it's coming here.
The woman who wrote it was on TV last week; and she said that this is not a fight between Christians and Muslims.
She said it was a world struggle between civilization and barbarians.
I just don't understand why people don't get it.
That's what I've always done.
She's right, IMO.
If all my ideas and strongly held views are being addressed, than in my mind's eye, conservatism is being advanced.
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