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I wonder which season the US economy is in, according to President “Chance the Gardener” Biden. If you believe the recovery talk (from the reckless Covid economic and school shutdowns of 2020), all is well in the (economic) garden. For example, M2 Money Velocity (GDP/M2), is almost back to where it was just prior to the 2020 Covid outbreak and resulting government-caused recession. M2 Velocity was 1.425 in Q4 2019 and was 1.289 for Q2 2023. But ever since The Federal Reserve became hyper intervention in the economy (let’s just start with Bernanke’s massive intervention in late 2008 (red line)...

The Kel-Tec P17 barrel was measured at 3.814 inches. Published Velocities for .22 cartridges are easily available, and are usually measured in rifle-length test barrels. Lapau reportedly uses a 660mm (26 inch) test barrel for .22 rimfire rifle ammunition. RWS uses a 650mm (25 inch) test barrel for rimfire rifle ammunition. US manufacturers are said to use 24-inch test barrels. It makes sense manufacturers would use the longest commonly available barrel to test their ammunition. Velocities of .22 ammunition in the US is seldom given for pistol barrels.In a previous article, information was published about the velocities of three pistols...

Today, I heard two local, small town radio DJs going on about rate hikes coming down the pike, and I thought wow here we are again with rate-hike-hysteria. Eight years ago I posted an article, Interest Rates Cannot Rise, Here’s Why In that article I depicted my model, forecasting that interest rates would not and could not rise. Now remember 2014 was the peak messaging period by the Fed and Wall Street gearing up for “rate normalization”. So to go on record stating that rate normalization was impossible, was a risky move. In fact, a friend, who is a friend...

US banks have the Phed Pneumonia and the Fauci Flu. Since the Fauci Flu (aka, Covid) outbreak in early 2020, The Federal Reserve lowered their target rate and super-spiked their balance sheet. Helping to lower bank deposit rates to near zero. But despite near zero bank deposit rates, we seeing bank deposits are larger than bank credit such as commercial and industrial loans, residential mortgages loans, car loans, etc. Normally, bank credit EXCEEDS bank deposits. The problem? One of them is negative growth in commercial and industrial lending. It declined 13.5% YoY in August. Of course, The Federal government extended...

Toward a High-Velocity Astronomyby Paul Gilsteron May 15, 2019 Couple the beam from a 100 gigawatt laser with a single-layer lightsail and remarkable things can happen. As envisioned by scientists working with Breakthrough Starshot, a highly reflective sail made incredibly thin — perhaps formed out of graphene and no thicker than a single molecule — could attain speeds of 20 percent of c. That’s good enough to carry a gram-scale payload to the nearest stars, the Alpha Centauri triple system, with a cruise time of 20 years, for a flyby followed by an agonizingly slow but eventually complete data return....

Moving right along on My Velocity Airplane project, top is all cleaned up, lines all straight and even, finish sanding on the top of plane next week.

I don't know too much about Jim Rickards, just found this to be an interesting video about the overall economy and some tidbits about what our government agencies are up to. The video is a 45 minutes long interview of sorts and discussion. Just posting in the event other are interested.

As of October 31st, the Federal Reserve of St. Louis monetary base keeps accelerating. stlouismonetarybase Here is the monetary base (white) and the Fed’s balance sheet (pink). monbasefedbal And the M1 Money Multiplier keeps falling. So, $1 created recirculates through the economy very slowly. m1multip110113 And the M2 Money Velocity keeps falling as well. Low GDP is the culprit and M2 Money supply growth isn’t firing up the economy. m2velo110113 Here is M2 Money Velocity and the Case-Shiller 20 metro index since 2000. House price growth and lending helped spur velocity through 2006, but it has been downhill since then....

There are clear headwinds for economic growth in the United States. Here is one chart that combines several economic indicators that are decelerating. decelnation First, the M1 Money Multiplier (white line). It was over 3.0 back during the Reagan Recovery in the 1980s, but it has been all downhill since then. It is currently below 1.0 at 0.721. Second, the M2 Money Velocity (red dashed line). It peaked in 1997 during the Clinton Recovery and has been pretty much downhill ever since (with the exception of 2003-2006). Third, labor force participation (green dotted line). It peaked in March 2000 and...

According to The Federal Reserve G.19 Report for August, consumer debt topped $3 trillion! Of course, Federal government debt has topped $16 trillion, over 5 times the amount of consumer debt. Note that pickup in Federal debt growth compared to consumer debt growth after Q2 2008 (red box). feddebtconsumer Here is a chart of revolving consumer credit versus non-revolving credit. Non-revolving debt (e.g., auto loans) have effectively replaced revolving debt. revnonrev Business loans have finally grown past the prior peak in 2008. frbusloasn On the government side, current expenditures (purple line) continue to grow, but the rate of growth flattened...

Jobs Friday begins with a tepid display. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) rose by 169,000, less than expected. Revisions reduced a combined 74,000 jobs from July and June payrolls, so the gains we thought we had in June and July were partly a mirage. jobs090613 Labor force participation fell to 63.2%, continuing its downward spiral. Note that M2 Money Velocity (yellow) line is following a similar downward trajectory. lfpm2v The number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 516,000 in one month, which in turn increased the total number of people outside the labor force to a record...

Tomorrow, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify in the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow. Certainly, Chairman Bernanke will tout bubbles in the stock market, bond market and he might even discuss a possible housing bubble. But other than bubbles, Congressmen need to ask Mr. Bernanke about the painfully slow real GDP growth and employment recovery. Both Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase have lowered Q2 Real GDP growth to 1%. Retail sales, although in Q3, were disappointing in today’s release. usretail071513 Tepid GDP growth and rising adjusted monetary base is not a great combination. moneyrelgdp As a consequence, M2...

The much ballyhooed jobs report on Friday (despite the fact that it was PART-TIME, not full-time jobs) raised the hopes of investors. US Treasury 10 year yields jumped 24.1 basis points on Friday on the news. ust10070613 For your consideration. The US labor force participation rate (SA) rose slightly to 63.5%. Of course, that means that 36.5% are NOT participating. Here is M2 Money Velocity plotted against the labor force participation rate (yellow). m2velpart The US Employment Population Ratio (SA) rose slightly to 58.7%. Once again, this means that 41.3% of the population are not employed. He is M1 Money...

I was watching former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on CNBC’s Closing Bell with Maria Bartiromo on Friday. Greenspan seemed to be saying that the stock market is what is important, not the underlying economy. Since the S&P 500 bottomed on 2009-07-07, it has risen from 881.03 to 1521.38 on Friday. That is a 73% increase. But please find the hidden economic recovery in the data supporting this miraculous stock market recovery. Industrial production in YoY terms is displaying a disturbing down trend in growth. U6 unemployment is shaped like a sea serpent and still remains at 14.4%, far too high...

The terms PIGS usually denotes Portugal,Italy.Greece and Spain as large issuers of government debt as a percentage of GDP. But the USA has replaced Portugal as an honorary PIG. The USA has been on a spending and debt binge since the Democrats took control of Congress in 2008. And the growth in GDP risen as much as hoped with the additional spending, debt or money supply. M2 Money Velocity (GDP/M2 Money Stock) is falling fast. So as President Obama and House Speaker Boehner discuss the fiscal cliff and taxation in ADDITION to Obamacare taxes (coming to your checking account on...

For spacecraft that zoom through the cosmos at thousands of miles per hour, calculating which one is traveling at the fastest speed is more complicated than simply clocking the first to cross the finish line. When space agencies calculate and establish speed records, these numbers need to be defined and qualified, because there can be more than one frame of reference. In other words, the speed of a spacecraft can be calculated relative to the Earth, the sun, or some other body. The record for the highest speed at which a spacecraft has launched and escaped from Earth's gravity is...

Guest Post: The Boom Before The Bust Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/13/2009 21:29 -0500 Submitted by The Pragmatic Capitalist We're at a truly fascinating crossroads in modern economic times. Financial theory as we have come to know it will be changed forever based the recent actions of Ben Bernanke and global central bankers. Millions of textbooks will be rewritten in the coming 10 years and careers will either flourish or die on the back of the actions of these bankers. Those in favor of Bernanke's legendary helicopter drop are celebrating a 6 month rally in equities, but a vital...

Tuesday, December 30. 2008 Posted by Karl Denninger at 08:30 Uh Oh..... Monetary Flat Spin That has gone "just below" 1.0. What is this? I could go through the derivation of how money supply works in a fractional reserve monetary system (any), but won't, because most readers would have their eyes glaze over. The important part of this graph is what it denotes. Bernanke has lost control of "N" (or velocity), which is the actual knob that he is trying to diddle when borrowing rates are changed (and in fact its the market that sets that, despite his protests.) In...

The USGS is releasing a new tool to help mitigate loss of life and property - a 3D computer model of the upper 20 miles of the Earth's crust in the greater San Francisco Bay Area that will enable researchers to accurately predict the shaking levels of past and future earthquakes. Previous work by the USGS and others has shown that the 3D structure of the Earth has a significant impact on how strongly an earthquake is felt at different locations and on the duration of the shaking. Because seismic waves propagate through different rock types with differing speeds that...